and we're in the center of Dublin a few
miles from here in Donnybrook they're
preparing for the final leaders debate
in this election but this time round on
that podium
Mary Lou MacDonald from Shin fain now
not that our erudite viewers need any
reminding but Shin fain remember the
one-time political arm of the IRA its
one-time leader Gerry Adams considered
so dangerous by the British state his
voice dubbed over in broadcasts make
absolutely no mistake about it
this campaign has attached jump leads to
Irish politics and some would argue this
campaign has attached jump leads to
Irish history the Irish general election
of clothes and Fosse cast yes boring a
few days ago predictable enough the two
main parties feed a fall and FINA gael
slogging it out door with a political
middle ground a knife-edge the issues
dominating debate housing health and
history I was like you one time but then
a raft of popularity polls culminating
in one just last night that put the
left-wing Republic in the shin feign
first its highest recorded level of
support ever suddenly the fight is on
both FINA fall and FINA gale have ruled
out coalition with shin Fane in part
because of their relationship with the
IRA the association with violent
terrorism is still raw in the minds of
voters of a particular generation what
what's your message that those voters
well look this election is about
building for the future I'm coming from
though okay no I appreciate everybody
who
Experion who who was hurt in the course
of the conflict I also know that it's
over yeah for some young-shin vein
activists it never began an estate on
the outskirts of Gouri County Wexford
these developments that mushroom during
the boom abandoned during the bust but
recovering the shin faint surge young
voters in places like this everyone I
know is voting shin pain number one
we're gonna do it it's time for change
the people bringing the message born
after the Good Friday Agreement socially
liberal politics forged in the recent
referendums on marriage equality and
abortion yeah well I joined in vain in
2017 when the repeal campaign was the
most active and data when the main
reasons I joined us because I sought in
vain as the party who were for equality
for feminism and having a female leader
and hopefully the first female tea shock
and all I think is really important for
me but then a sobering voice from on
high an old Russian famed border what
are you going to do if you can't get
into Pell and that's the sticking point
the other two main parties have said no
coalition with chin Fane and one party
winning outright won't happen also shin
Farrah fielding forty two candidates
they'd need double that to form a
majority government national popularity
polls don't simplistically map onto seat
numbers in the Irish system so it's the
Sunday just before the elections and we
have hot with the down to the Midlands
because a poll just out shows that FINA
Gail are behind both champagne and FINA
poll which would be a seismic shift in
Irish politics
Leah vodkas FINA Gail has run a minority
government in a confidence to supply
arrangement with FINA fall my dad is
he's presided over a healthy economy
robust brexit negotiations and after all
that Shin feign now snapping at his
heels
Shin feign is not a normal party it's
not just about their past it's also
about their plans for the future for
Syracuse a champagne is not a normal
party are all the thousands of people
that will vote for them next weekend
normal people yeah of course they are
and I have no choir that immense respect
for any individual who votes for
champagne but this is a democracy and
just because the party might get 20% of
the voter so doesn't give them the right
to be in government any more than my
party has that right and we've always
got more than 20% of the votes at least
since 1948 so I think what's insane
doesn't understand is that in order to
form a government you have to be able to
convince people that you're a
trustworthy partner there are other
smaller parties of course as well and
other coalition combinations most likely
though to involve either FINA Gale or
FINA fall in Bora County Offaly their
leader me Hall Martin a prospective
thief shocked all those scarred by the
financial crisis only a fool they say
underestimates FINA falls ground game
and on the ground the leader sights
trained on chin fee the anti Enterprise
approaches in vain I mean they're
proposing 4 billion in extra taxes with
16 new taxes I think would really damage
jobs in the country
interestingly brexit has not played big
in this election major parties reflected
national consensus on blue island hardly
Dubliners don't hesitate and feel tingly
and brilliant you feel more alive than
you would a little like exiting the
European Union completely the officers
Sinn féin has said that a border poll on
Irish unity is a red line for them in
coalition but just yesterday road back
on that they don't want to be framed as
a single issue Republican Party many
young voters believe they're not I think
Jim Payne are doing a really good job of
playing into the zeitgeist of all the
things that people of my generation are
really passionate about some older ones
not so sure I think back of all the bad
things that happen over the last 3040
years it hasn't gone away I don't think
there's been we haven't had long enough
a time to think about it for two I
suppose chair to bring them into into
the fold the fact that the election is
on a Saturday could be significant in
terms of young people's turnout
either way this weekend Ireland takes
the plunge in Dublin and joining us now
from Dublin City is the journalist and
writer
Fintan O'Toole Fintan O'Toole you wrote
recently there can be no progressive
government in Ireland without shin Fane
now you're no fan of the IRA what's come
over you
well I'm certainly not a fan of the IRA
I'm of an age of course where I remember
all of those atrocities which of course
a lot of younger people now don't it's
it's 22 years since the peace process
it's 22 years since the IRA finally laid
down its arms and the reality is that
Irish politics is now kind of split into
half and half there's the the old party
Cena Falls integrale the center-right
parties which have dominated the state
really for almost the entire hundred
years nearly of its existence and the
other half is broadly speaking
progressive left-wing anxious for social
change
and whether I like it or not whether
anybody else likes it enough those
voters are Co hearing to a very large
extent around shin pain it's it's for
the first time looking like you might
get over 40% of voters in Ireland voting
for left-wing parties and that's what
makes this election potentially historic
now Shin fade have backed off their
demand of having a border poll but in
the end why shouldn't they have one well
it's essentially they've backed off it's
on your asses right you know they
realize that there's a little bit of a
sense in the Republic of Ireland of
let's have our unity o Lord but not yet
you know people realize it's a very
complicated business people realize that
you you really have to have
reconciliation on the island before
you're going to get unity people no
longer really go along mostly with the
kind of triumphalist idea that will get
the the fourth greenfield back as the
old songs would say so I think I think
she in vain is responding to what it
knows public opinion in the southeast
which is yes people know that wit brags
that things are changing but they also
realize that this has to be a very
delicate generous open process of
engagement with with with unionists in
in in Northern Ireland and it's simply
having a border pole next week would
change nothing it would just make
everything more divided and more bitter
could we wake up on Sunday morning and
find we've got a shin vein in coalition
with the other two parties that have run
Ireland for all these years yes it's
still possible and as you heard a part
of support that the two big parties can
fall for the grounds are saying
absolutely not chin pain is still
radioactive we will never go into
government with them but if shin pain
gets the largest single chunk of votes
which is what the polls are telling us
it becomes very very difficult to say
that they're not a legitimate political
priority that that their voters don't
cancel me whatever you think about you
in vain it's very difficult to the
democracy to say that the votes of those
people are not equal to everybody else's
votes when it comes to the formation of
a government so it's not impossible that
we might be saying she's fine playing a
role
government's certainly what we are going
to be seeing I think is a realignment of
Irish politics because if shin pain
isn't going to be in the government then
that the two big center-right parties
feel default integral are probably going
to have to coalesce together and that
will end the kind of jus up early system
that we've seen for almost 100 years