Queensland's currently experiencing significant, prolonged and widespread
heavy rainfall, with two thirds of the state currently under flood watch.
Additionally, dangerous and life threatening, flash flooding is possible
over certain parts of the state with embedded thunderstorms.
Over the past 24 hours we've seen the explosion of cloud over Queensland.
And if we flip over to the water vapor to unpick some of that detail
the upper level trough over the Northern Territory is tearing down that moisture
and lifting it
and causing it to rain out over central and western areas of Queensland.
That's lifting moisture which is entered inland parts from the east and north east,
which is a very tropical area for that moisture to come down from.
Rain observations to 9 a.m
this morning we've seen up to 114
millimeters around the central west at a station called Kirby.
Nearby in Mount Isa, there was a swift water rescue
which is in a city which is traditionally dry inland city.
And it just goes to show
how much water is falling in the western reaches of Queensland.
Elsewhere we've seen falls around 50 to 100 millimeters along the Queensland coast
and since 9 a.m.
this morning up to 155 millimetres in the north tropical coast.
Severe weather warning for heavy rainfall has been issued
and is a continuation of one that was there yesterday.
Stretches just south of Cairns to Townsville, to Bowen,
inland of Mackay, down to Emerald, Longreach and out towards Hughenden.
Now that's carrying 60 - 100 millimetre
rainfall rates in a six hourly period and additionally life threatening
dangerous flash flooding could occur with intense rainfall
with rainfall ranges of up to 150 millimeters in more of the dry
semi-arid areas and then up to 200 or in excess of 200 rather
over the north tropical coast and lower Burdekin.
Now if we have a look at the forecast wind and rain, current state of affairs
is we've got a trough which is acting as one focus
and a coastal trough which is sitting off the north tropical
and Burdekin coast there. Quite quickly into Wednesday morning,
we're going to see the formation of a low pressure system
Now all forecast models are wrong, but some are useful.
This is important not to become too fixated on the exact position of the low,
but we know from the consensus of the guidance that there will be
a focus of rainfall somewhere along that trough.
And that's an important piece to follow as we move forward in time.
We do have the trough still generating rainfall into Wednesday and you can see
some of that rainfall starting to enter parts of northern New South Wales.
The expectation with the northern New South Wales rainfall
is that we won't see very high impacts like we are seeing
to the north of the border.
On Wednesday, the focus dramatically shifts
onto the central coast of Queensland, where into Thursday,
we also start to see it down
to the Rockhampton coast with lots of northeasterly flow
flowing into the central coast of Queensland.
And then by Friday we should see the areas
shift down into the Wide Bay Burnett and we still have
the onshore flow into south east Queensland.
But at this stage we're not anticipating large impacts
as we are anticipating further north in the state.
Looking at the total,
looking at the total forecast rainfall there,
we can see quite quickly during Wednesday already 100 millimetres delivered
in those purple areas to semi-arid to arid parts of Queensland.
The development of that low, the numbers really start to dial up,
seeing pink there, which is in excess of 200 millimetres.
Now given that we've got the trough, given that we've got the low
and the onshore flow onto the Great Divide, these three things will mean that
the forecast rainfalls are not going to be picked up by the forecast model
and we should see falls in isolated pockets up to 500 millimetres
in parts of the coast side of the Great Divide.
Flood watches and warnings.
We've got lots of activity left over from the Anzac Day event
through the Channel Country in the Lake Eyre Basin.
Now this will look very different tomorrow as we're already seeing rainfall
falling into these catchments and we'll see the fresh issuance of minor
to moderate and perhaps even major flood warnings tomorrow.
Peel those off the guidance here.
Two thirds of the state are currently under flood watch.
So it's important for Queenslanders to be vitally aware and precautious
when this rain starts to fall to practice more precautions with that.
And then also as the flash flooding enters the rivers, then we're going to see
more of a prolonged thing from days to hours
to days along the coast and then days to weeks in inland.
And that's it from the Bureau, keep up to date
with the latest forecasts and warnings on our website, app and social media.
And please follow the advice of emergency services