earlier we told you about of dick morris predictions in israel
landers predictions
uh... about the election
uh... but don't take my word for it
unless you look at one of the course of predictions for this one
reagan went by a landslide
uh... the uh... it will be the
biggest surprise
clean recent american political history liberal rekindle the whole question as
to why the media played this race as a nail biter i were in fact i think
romney's can win by quite a bit
uh... my own view mizoram he's going to carry three hundred and twenty-five
electoral votes
uh... we have a map i think you can show them that he i think he's can win
florida virginia north carolina indiana these two states that obama one last
time by a war
co-pilot
new hampshire
pennsylvania
wisconsin
uh... and minnesota
and i think that the that this is update in colorado this is going to be a
landslide i think in the popular vote he's gonna win by more than five points
wrongly again bob
the laws all those all of those dates
what problem that the other hand so you got all bob about smoke bombing
colorado bomb in a bottle what lol bomb are all bomber
but what about that
what hal three twenty five hundred uh... you cannot
with my father the popular vote to travel losing my friend the popular vote
but but the course i barely remember this golden
and but based this not on intuition or on
smelling the tea leaves i base it on reading the polls
the exact same polls that say if that obama's can win
when you look at those polls and you studied them
and you take a count of all of the fact is you see how those polls that time we
new romney will win when stalin it's not a question of being smarter than anybody
else instead i've done this for a living and there are very few people on
television
we talk about politics have never made a living doing it and most of them a
partisan and echoing the point of view um... but when you get down to it a
dialect colour over pat caddell a rodney
worried the jury trippy
uh... we make a living doing this and i've made a living doing it for forty
years and i know how to read a poll
and uh... this is how you read the poland that's what this poll says and
you didn't see it
on election day
wrong began bob
backpack uh... inside some smaller than that prepare richard present well
that was true actually did finally that's something right
and uh... you still op no are nonpartisan
on really is outdoors
about what you don't smell that the leaks
you read it to you
you smell the basalts
that that's what was going on
so dick morris obviously wrong on election night univer him back in
this ought to be fun first whose print up a school of the
republican to
happen
what change what about your model compared to the reality
well i'm buried in a mud slide but
affect let me just say that i uh... i feel very badly for barackobama because
nabil he really inherited a mess
uh... look at it sets a he's got a little boy
whatever of their reactor unified field is like
anyway why restore our
so if i as an explanation in this is awesome
i think that the reason that the prediction that i made was wrong
is that i whispered criticizing the polling because i said that it reflected
the same turnout model as there was in two thousand eight
man said that i thought that was a one-off affair that it would not
continue and that that was not going to be the permanent surmount model in the
united states and i was wrong
we are now in a trend that model
that is struggling different than we've ever had
and blacks about thirteen percent of the vote not eleven
uh... latinos who tend not to eat
and uh... people under thirty and nineteen not seventeen
uh... the previous numbers with the oh four model and i thought things would
return to that
they didn't but this is saying is this is the new american this isn't your
father's america
single women
uh... minorities and voters under thirty by is so large at this point i
unless the republican party fundamentally changes its appeal to
those voters
it can never win an election
when walla rosborough
hello
to we're never too early yet
well whatever the republicans the course of never write so build sweating
now on the issue of the
minority voters will vote as a setter young voters unloading site
what what do you think blacks and latinos in one of the country
their body
well i don't know that
bobby take advantage of it turns out the rather hello books
no but think about it seriously house ukrainians
he used up all four model
yours ago
you're this is what you do for a living you realize
numbers on latinos arab-americans young voters a center had changed in the last
eight years
it depends on who's running for president on whether they're gonna
motivate younger voters are not you take any of that nato
is turned off or out of the last time you know we want so
dot they got one of the
this is why were you
what are they
alms
holds her
this is where have on their side doing now
care one way to do it in that
what i'd loved was a certainty
that's what i love
bother people better fair
contracting
three twenty five perot
i looked at them
old man
import note for good
bill in the polls island to the polls with two thousand four
and eighteen ninety six
and i figure this thing up