The race between infection and injection is on
But immunising the global population against covid-19…
…presents an unprecedented challenge
No one has ever tried to vaccinate an entire planet…
…as fast as they’re trying to do it now
The rich world has most of the global vaccine supply
Prompting many countries to turn to Chinese and Russian jabs…
…when it’s not yet completely clear how safe or effective they are
It might turn out that these are really great vaccines…
…but unless you see the underlying data, you can’t be absolutely sure
Will gambling on these jabs pay off…
…or could it have negative consequences...
...for the great vaccination drive
New mutations of covid-19…
…are placing health systems under increasing strain
And the stakes are higher than ever…
…in the global vaccination race
It’s amazing we’ve even got these vaccines at all
This has happened in under a year
It’s a miracle, I think
The challenge for the world now…
…is how to supply and distribute these vaccines
Just a handful of countries…
…have managed to give a first dose…
…to over 5% of their population
And some vaccines are easier to distribute than others
Of the three jabs to have been approved for use…
…by stringent regulators
Two, made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna…
…require storage at low temperatures…
…making them more suitable for use in the rich world
Israel is leading the roll-out of the Pfizer jab
Just over 30% of the population have received at least one dose…
…making them the most immunised nation in the world
Israel was helped by a deal with Pfizer, which gave it access to jabs…
…in exchange for data about how the vaccine was working
And the country’s size and population density also helped
Israel is a small country and distributing the Pfizer vaccine is easier…
…when you can move it around without it heating up and spoiling
The third vaccine to receive authorisation…
…from stringent regulatory bodies…
…offers hope of wider and faster distribution
Developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University…
…it can be kept in a normal fridge
The AstraZeneca vaccine is the vaccine…
…I think that most of the world will use…
…it’s cheap, it will be plentiful…
…and will be made in lots of places around the world
But rolling out this vaccine poses two big challenges
First, many poorer countries…
…will struggle to get it into arms quickly and safely
It’s much more than just flying them to the airport
Even though the Astra vaccine is suitable…
…because it can go in a fridge…
…even India is going to have a real “cold chain” problem
And the second problem…
…is that the vast majority of these jabs…
…have already been snapped up by the rich world
Three-fifths of the two billion confirmed orders…
…of AstraZeneca doses will go to high-income countries
Along with all of the Moderna vaccine…
…and almost three-quarters of the Pfizer vaccine
Even taking into account the high death rates in the rich world…
…some nations pre-ordered significantly more…
…than they will need
America ordered enough to vaccinate the population twice over
The UK ordered enough to vaccinate the population…
…three times
And Canada, where deaths have been relatively low…
…ordered enough to vaccinate the population five times
The director-general of the World Health Organisation…
…has dubbed this hoarding a “me first” approach…
…which could increase suffering and prolong the pandemic
Rich countries ordered more vaccine than they need…
…they, at some point, are going to have to donate some of it
The question is, when are they going to donate?
That is a political question…
…and will depend on the mood of the countries involved
The good news is that there is a scheme…
…to make sure lower- and middle-income countries…
…have access to jabs
It’s called COVAX and works like a global vaccine-buying club…
…that allows rich countries to subsidise vaccines…
…for poorer countries and pool demand…
…to get better prices
Following his inauguration…
…President Biden was quick to announce…
…America would join the group of 190 participating economies
The big hope in COVAX…
…is that about 3% of each country’s population…
…will have got adequate supplies of vaccine by the summer
That’s roughly the number of health-care workers…
…in most countries
That’s quite a lot, but not enough by any means…
…to vaccinate much of the world’s population
That leaves a large global shortfall in safe and effective vaccines
And in an attempt to make up for this…
…many countries are turning to China and Russia
Both nations have made vaccines which they say work and are safe
The problem is it’s hard to know if that’s true
They were approved before having gone through phase-three trials
It might turn out that these are really great vaccines…
…which would be really good for the world
But unless you see the underlying data…
…you can’t be absolutely sure
Governments desperate to immunise their populations…
…have been making deals directly with the jab developers…
…to host clinical trials in exchange for vaccinations
[These vaccines] will be used for global public good…
…and we will prioritise developing countries
Chinese vaccines are being used or trialled…
…in several countries around the world
Including high-income nations…
…like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain…
…which are just behind Israel…
…in terms of the doses of vaccine delivered per head
That’s good news for China…
…but it’s raised concerns…
…the country may be exploiting the vaccine roll-out…
…for political purposes
The pandemic is such a kind of global event…
…that inevitably soft power becomes a factor too
If you look at the way China has been doing deals with countries…
…to give its vaccine to, say, countries in the Middle East…
…it’s part of a move to try and build relationships…
…with those countries
The lack of transparency around some of these trials is worrying
The full Sinopharm trial data from the UAE were never published
And tests of a different Chinese vaccine in Brazil…
…have also raised questions
A jab made by Chinese company Sinovac…
…was initially found to have 78% efficacy…
…but this was later downgraded to 50%…
…just clearing the threshold for emergency approval…
…from regulators
None of these countries are free to disclose their data…
…in the way they would like…
…because they’re bound by contractual arrangements…
…with the Chinese…
…so they can’t tell us what we want to know
This lack of transparency has important knock-on effects on trust…
…and trust in vaccines is crucial for making them effective
Trust is what determines…
…how many people are willing to take the vaccine
Maximum trust depends, I think, on maximum transparency
The vaccine roll-out…
…that has perhaps raised most concerns around trust…
…has come from Russia
This morning…
…the world’s first vaccine against coronavirus was registered
The vaccine, named Sputnik V…
…was authorised in Russia last summer…
…after being tested on just 76 people…
…and has since been cleared for emergency use…
…in 14 countries worldwide
It’s no accident that the Russian vaccine is called Sputnik V…
…a reference to one of the great soft power triumphs…
…of the Soviet Union in getting the first man-made object…
…into space
It was the first vaccine to be announced and frankly…
…it was rushed out
In some ways it was designed to burnish Russia’s reputation
But the fact that it went to those lengths…
…and cut those corners…
…has done Russia’s reputation no favours
Getting the vaccine roll-out right matters
Modelling suggests if jabs are distributed according to global need…
…rather than being concentrated in rich countries alone…
…it could save one-and-a-half times more lives
But doing this will require levels of global co-operation…
…that have been lacking in recent years
If the world gets it right…
…it could pave the way for greater collaboration…
…on issues like climate change
Get it wrong, and it could deepen the cracks…
…in an already fragmented global system
If it’s seen that the pandemic has been dealt with well…
…and fairly and that the mechanisms for governing the world…
…have functioned, then that’s an enormous vote of confidence
But if the pandemic is seen as selfish and fractious…
…it makes all those other issues much harder to deal with
I’m Edward Carr, The Economist’s deputy editor
I hope you’ve enjoyed this film
If you want to read more of our covid coverage…
…please click on the link opposite…
…and keep an eye out for The Jab…
…our new covid podcast…
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