I keep losing socks in the dryer.
I think the most likely explanation is lizard people are hoarding them so they can assassinate
the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
Hey co-conspirators, Julian hear for DNews.
More people believe in conspiracy theories than you might think, not just your crazy
uncle who lives in a shack in the woods.
Multiple polls and studies estimate that about half the population ascribes to at least one
conspiracy theory, believing that malevolent forces are manipulating events in ways that
contradict the official narrative.
Part of why so many people buy into alternative explanations is because the world is a big
scary chaotic place, and our brains don’t like that.
Dartmouth neuroscientist Paul Whalen explains that when confronted with things we have no
control over like natural disasters or terrorist attacks, our amygdalae, the part of the brain
that process fear, jump-start the parts of our brains that processes information, looking
for some pattern or explanation, so it can assess threats and plan the next step.
Unfortunately this is where math teams up with neuroscience to trick your brain.
Ramsey theory is the mathematical principle that basically says given a data set large
enough, you can find just about any pattern you like.
And then the principle of confirmation bias, where we tend to only seek out information
that agrees with what we already believe, brings psychology into the mix, rounding out
the scientific conspiracy that makes you believe in conspiracies.
The Psychological principle of proportionality bias is often involved too.
It’s our tendency to believe that large events have large causes.
The idea that just one guy with a gun and a good view from a book depository could murder
one of the most powerful people in the world is unsatisfying, and we instinctively search
for bigger forces at work.
But by that explanation we wouldn’t look for conspiracies if we didn’t believe in
conspiracies, and according to University of Kent psychologists, that tautology is exactly
the case; once you believe a shadowy cabal pulled the strings behind one event, it becomes
much more likely that you’ll look for shadowy cabals again and again.
And herein lies another problem: sometimes conspiracy theories turn out to be right.
When the Nixon administration was accused of burgling the Democratic National Committee’s
headquarters in 1972, the whole thing seemed far fetched.
But as it turns out that was exactly what happened, and knowing that sometimes there
is a web of lies and deceit opens the door to speculation about what else might have
an alternate explanation.
Was the moon landing faked?
Do vaccines cause autism?
Is global warming a hoax?
No matter how many times scientific evidence refutes those claims, some people still believe
it.
Because we’ve been burned before.
Thanks Nixon.
And often they even believe in it harder, thanks to a phenomenon called the backfire
effect where people reject contradictory evidence and double down on what they already believe.
But while there are sometimes conspiracies they usually don’t stay secret for long.
This is less thanks to internet sleuths and more thanks to the fact that people can’t
keep their mouths shut.
According to Oxford University Physicist David Robert Grimes the more people involved in
a conspiracy, the faster that conspiracy will unravel.
Grimes calculated the chances that a conspirator would slip up on a given day was 1 in 250,000,
even in the most generous circumstances where everyone was dedicated to the utmost secrecy
and no outside eyes were prying.
What that means is a conspiracy with over 2500 people on board will probably only stay
secret for 5 years at most.
Considering that at its peak almost 50 years ago the Apollo program employed 400,000 people,
I think it’s pretty safe to conclude we did in fact land on the moon.
One conspiracy I have actually heard is that seat belts don’t save lives.
Some people believe that if you’re not strapped down in a serious crash you’ll be thrown
clear of danger, presumably landing in a field of pillows and marshmallows.
The actual science says that If you get in a crash and you’re NOT wearing your seatbelt
you only have a 50/50 chance of surviving.
No rewinds.
No do-overs.
So why do cops enforce seat belt laws?
Because seat belts save lives, and you might not get a second chance to buckle up.
Even if you get one of those newfangled self driving cars, it’s still a good idea to
wear a seatbelt.
Not because the cars are unsafe, but because other people are still out there driving like
maniacs!
Trace explains here.
I’m sure some of you watching had a backfire effect yourselves.
What conspiracy do you think I’m covering up?