The Merkel era is drawing to a close.
And after 16 years in government, Angela Merkel will finally get a long-awaited rest.
At the end of September, Germany voted.
“This is DW News and these are our top stories. Germany’s center-left
Social Democrats say they have a mandate to govern after winning a narrow victory in the
country’s parliamentary elections.”
The SPD was elected the strongest party with 25.7 percent.
So it’s soon “Tschüss!” to Angela Merkel and hello to the new chancellor ...?
Not so fast.
As with most things in Germany there can be a long process before a new chancellor is
elected.
And this time it’s as much about the frontrunners for the chancellery as it is about the kingmakers
from possible coalition parties.
So who WILL be the next chancellor? What happens to Germany after Merkel?+++
For Merkel to leave the stage entirely, there first needs to be a new government.
So what does happen to Merkel and the outgoing parliament in the meantime?
Some of the most important answers are in here.
According to Germany’s Grundgesetz or constitution the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament MUST
convene for its first session no later than 30 days after the election.+++
The previous members of parliament - including Merkel - remain in the Bundestag until the
first session.
That also marks the end of the chancellor’s term in office.
But even then Merkel won’t be clocking out of the chancellery straight away.
At the request of the German President - currently Frank-Walter Steinmeier - the outgoing chancellor
is obliged to continue government affairs until their successor is elected.
Caretaker governments generally don’t make any far-reaching decisions.
But, the next weeks will be dominated by parties negotiating the new coalition government.
But the clock is ticking.+++
So who will be Merkel’s successor? Isn’t that what Germans voted for?
Nope.
The German chancellor isn't directly elected by the people. Voters vote for parties and
they will be represented in the new Bundestag.
A stable government will need the support of a parliamentary majority.
Usually, the new chancellor is the candidate from the strongest party.
But that isn’t always the case.
This time the choice could be between the SPD’s Olaf Scholz and MAYBE even the CDU’s
Armin Laschet.
That decision ultimately lies in the hands of two parties that will be coalition kingmakers:
the climate-friendly Greens and the business-focused FDP.
+++SOT Kate Brady: But how is a coalition formed?
First it all kicks off with Sondierungsgespräche - literally “probing talks” - between
parties.
Only if the chemistry is right, will some parties will go into Koalitionsgespräche
- “coalition talks”.+++
Two coalitions look most likely:
One option is the traffic light coalition. With red for Social Democrats, who got the
most votes, yellow for the business friendly Free Democrats and green for well... the Greens.
While the SPD and Greens could get along quite harmoniously, getting the Free Democrats on
board could be trickier. The FDP opposes the SPD and Greens' plans to tax the wealthier
and wants to stick to Germany’s strict balanced budget rules.
Which brings us to the second option: a conservative-led coalition – also with the Greens and FDP.
It’s known as a Jamaica coalition, again due to the parties’ colors.
It’s no secret that the FDP would much rather be in a Jamaica coalition than a traffic light
combo. In a Jamaica scenario, it’s the Greens who would be harder to convince – particularly
when it comes to meeting Germany’s climate goals. The Greens also want to see more public
spending than the CDU/CSU and FDP.
But on the sidelines, bilateral talks between the Greens and FDP have already started.
Ultimately its these kingmakers who will influence who becomes Merkel’s successor.
So forming a coalition will require a lot of compromise – and every party will be
fighting for their own interests.
But what happens if talks collapse?
Well, that’s exactly what happened in 2017 after the last federal election.
FDP leader Christian Linder left talks with the conservatives and Greens because he wasn’t
satisfied with the compromise on the table.
After almost six months of to-ing and fro-ing, politics in Germany were at a near standstill.
And after all that, Germany still ended up with another Grand Coalition with the conservatives
and SPD.
The same as in the previous term.
That was the last thing many voters wanted then
...And now.
If talks really hit a wall, a minority government IS possible, but they’ve always been avoided
in the interest of stability. And if there’s one thing Germany loves, it’s stability.+++
The absolute last resort would be fresh elections. But that’s highly unlikely.
And there you have it. There could be some long nights, weeks, if not months ahead.
The only thing we can be sure of: it will be a man sitting in the chancellery.
If talks drag on and Merkel stays in office till mid-December, she’ll become Germany’s
longest serving chancellor.
When she does leave, it will mark the end of an era. And the beginning of a new one.
Most likely with more parties represented in government.+++
And that means even more negotiations and compromise in German politics in the future.