Alexander Lukashenko has ruled Belarus with an iron fist
for 26 years.
He's often described as Europe's last dictator.
But he's now clinging onto power after the largest
public protests in Belarusian history.
The former Soviet state has a population of 9.5 million
and lies on the western border of Russia.
The regime there has been shaken by mass demonstrations
and strikes following a presidential election on August
29.
Lukashenko claims to have won with 80 per cent of the vote,
despite the evident mass support for opposition candidate
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
The 37-year-old former housewife and wife
of a candidate who was barred by Lukashenko
fled to Lithuania, where she is calling
for the support of European leaders.
I call on you not to recognise this fraudulent elections.
Mr Lukashenko has lost all legitimacy
in the eyes of our nation and the world.
After Belarusians took to the streets in protest,
the president ordered a crackdown.
Thousands of people were arrested
and many savagely beaten by the police,
but the demonstrations gathered strength.
Workers went on strike in Belarus's
state-owned companies, former bastions of support
for Lukashenko.
And even at the state broadcaster, once a mouthpiece
for the regime.
Lukashenko, a former collective farm manager,
was first elected in 1994.
He was credited with stabilising the new nation
after the collapse of the Soviet Union,
but he tightened his grip, eliminating all opposition,
and rigged subsequent elections.
Belarusians became increasingly dissatisfied with
their economic stagnation, corruption,
and sometimes eccentric behaviour of their autocratic
leader.
Its GDP has lagged behind neighbours like Poland,
and Lukashenko's refusal to take the coronavirus pandemic
seriously was for many the last straw.
Belarus is now experiencing a remarkable democratic
awakening.
Lukashenko has lost all legitimacy,
opposition leaders say.
But he is digging in, and his security forces remain loyal.
His fate probably now rests in the hands of Vladimir Putin,
the Russian leader.
Belarus has close ties with Moscow.
It is part of a Russian-lead free trade zone,
and signed a union treaty with Russia in 1999.
But Lukashenko has dragged his feet on closer integration.
He has often played Russia off against the West,
toying with warmer relations with Europe and the US in order
to extract more concessions from the Kremlin.
Minsk has been propped up by cheap Russian fuel
supplies, which Belarusian companies sell
at market prices.
But Putin is tired of Lukashenko's antics,
and has scaled back Russian subsidies.
Lukashenko accused Russia of meddling
before this month's vote.
Now, he says the opposition is a Western plot
to weaken ties with Moscow.
In fact, there is no sign of anti-Russian feeling
among the protesters in Belarus, and opposition leaders
have tried to give assurances to Moscow
that they do not intend to realign Belarus with the West.
If Putin intervenes to prop up the Belarusian dictator,
he risks an anti-Russian backlash.
European leaders hope to persuade the Kremlin to back
a transition and fresh elections,
but Putin will want a candidate for the Belarusian presidency
he is comfortable with.
And it is unclear who that might be.
The danger is that a desperate Lukashenko
tries to crush the opposition with a brutal crackdown.
Belarus's revolution may have a long way to go,
but the country has been transformed
in only a few weeks.