The US and Russia, China, and India, two separate long-term rivalries and two flashpoints for
global war.
But what if China and Russia decided to set aside their differences and join against an
Indian-American alliance?
Who would win, and how would that war play out?
The rules of this wargame are as usual, no use of nuclear weapons allowed and no other
allies can be called upon.
First let's take a look at each contestant's military might and see what capabilities each
would bring to the table.
First up is India, the world's fourth most powerful military.
With an active-duty force of 1.4 million and a reservist force of 2.8 million, India can
call upon a deep pool of manpower to prosecute any war.
India also possesses a formidable air force, with 590 fighter aircraft, 804 attack aircraft,
and a huge fleet of surveillance and transport helicopters that numbers at 720.
India however suffers from a lack of attack helicopters, with only 15 in its inventory;
this may prove to be a crippling deficiency in any attempt to combat a Chinese/Russian
incursion over its mountainous northern and eastern borders.
India does however maintain a force of 4,400 combat tanks, of which about half are modern
or semi-modern T-90s, and the indigenous Arjun main battle tank.
India is also equipped with a staggering number of towed artillery, 4,100 pieces meant to
make it impossible for their Chinese rivals to penetrate Indian defenses across the mountain
gaps of its north-eastern border.
Its naval forces include one aircraft carrier, 14 frigates, 11 destroyers, 22 corvettes,
and 16 submarines, a sizable collection of naval hardware that its immediate threat-
China- would be hard-pressed to defeat.
Next up is China.
China is the most populous nation on earth and maintains an active-duty force of 2.2
million, with a reservist force of 510,000.
With an air force totaling 1,125 Fighter aircraft, 1,527 attack aircraft, and 281 attack helicopters,
China has a serious advantage in the air over India; yet China's pilots are undertrained
compared to their Western counterparts, and forced to fly under strict supervision from
ground controllers, a huge liability in fast-paced modern air combat.
China also has a force of 7,700 tanks, and 6,246 towed artillery backed up by 2,000 self-propelled
artillery, mostly ballistic missile launchers which would pose a significant threat to Indian
and American forces.
On the sea, China maintains a significant force, with 1 test aircraft carrier not rated
for combat operations, 50 light frigates, 29 destroyers, 39 corvettes, and 73 submarines.
While larger in number than Indian naval forces, China lacks the ability to maintain long-term
logistical support for any deployed ships, meaning only a small number of them could
operate far from China's shores for longer than a few weeks.
Underpinning China's military might is also the fact that its military is severely affected
by systemic corruption, so much so that China's own leadership doubts the ability of the Chinese
military to fight and win a major war against a near-peer power such as India.
On to Russia.
Russia has the world's second most powerful military, with an active-duty force of just
over 1 million personnel and a reserve force of 2.5 million.
With 818 fighter aircraft and 1,416 attack aircraft, Russia's air forces are formidable,
but would be severely hampered in war by a lack of reconnaissance assets; as one Russian
military analyst put it: “We have long-range, sometimes precision guided weapons, but we
don't always know where the target is.”.
On the ground though, Russia maintains the world's largest tank fleet, numbering over
20,000, however this figure should be taken with a grain of salt as the number includes
many thousands of Soviet-era tanks that have long been decommissioned and would need weeks
to bring into service, and even once operational, would be decades behind in capability, firepower,
and protection versus modern tanks.
Russia's naval fleet has severely atrophied since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but
it still maintains one aircraft carrier, 9 frigates, 13 destroyers, 78 corvettes, and
62 submarines.
Though Russian vessels are on the whole aging and plagued by maintenance issues, they are
still armed with very modern and capable long-range missiles, making them a force to be feared.
And finally, the world's chief military power- the United States of America.
The US enters the conflict on India's side, with an active-duty force of 1.3 million personnel
and 800,000 reserve personnel.
With 1,962 fighter aircraft and 2,830 multirole aircraft, the US has almost double the air
power of Russia or China; its naval aviation forces alone are on par with either nation.
Its fleet of 973 attack helicopters ensure that ground offensives are well covered, and
it is rare that an American infantryman finds himself without fire support.
A proponent of blitzkrieg warfare, America also maintains a fleet of 5,900 tanks- almost
all of them modern Abrams variants- and 39,000 armored fighting vehicles, giving its ground
forces unparalleled mobility.
While lagging behind in numbers, America's 950 self-propelled, 795 towed, and 1,200 rocket
artillery platforms often feature smart, precision guided munitions.
In fact, of all the militaries in the world, the United States uses the most precision
guided munitions, featuring them on almost every combat platform, and giving US forces
incredible lethality.
At the onset of war, Chinese and Indian border forces stationed across the length of the
Himalayas would come into immediate conflict.
While initial predisposition of forces favors the Indian army, the narrow roads and valleys
of the mighty Himalayas would make anything but meager gains all but impossible.
Artillery would devastate any sizable forces trying to move through mountain gaps, leaving
most of the combat action to light infantry units supported by helicopters.
With Chinese forces primarily stationed along its eastern coast, India would initially have
the upper hand both in the air and on the ground.
Only a few air bases on the Tibetan plateau could support combat operations for the Chinese,
while dozens of airfields on India's side could all put Indian planes within combat
range of the front lines.
It would take weeks for China to construct makeshift air fields and air bases, and then
rebase the bulk of its air fleet to the Tibetan plateau, during which time, despite more advanced
Chinese aircraft, Indian forces would enjoy a degree of air superiority.
Yet the mountainous terrain would make it difficult for India to exploit that air superiority,
and it would be forced to try to use ground attack planes when it would be far more efficient
to use attack helicopters, of which India, again, only has 15.
Once China relocated its mobile ballistic missile launchers to its western military
regions however, India would face a withering barrage of ballistic missiles that it could
do absolutely nothing to protect itself from.
Airfields and military command and control nodes across northern and eastern India would
be devastated, and India's air force would suddenly find it very difficult to maintain
hard-won air superiority, giving China the time needed to rebase its own air forces.
Yet this is where China would have to make a very difficult choice: if it moves its forces
to counter the Indian threat, it will leave the Pacific front completely vulnerable to
American attack.
Caught between the literal rock of the Himalayas swarming with Indian infantry, and the hard
choice of leaving itself vulnerable to coastal raids by the American navy, China may look
to its Russian allies for a solution.
Russia would need to carefully consider the strategic situation.
It's Chinese allies desperately depend on the Pacific ocean for trade, importing most
of their oil via sea trade routes and with domestic reserves not yet ready to support
long-term war.
With the majority of China's trade and oil passing through the Indian Ocean, the Indian
navy is as one analyst put it: “poised on China's jugular”, and could easily cripple
China with a naval blockade of Chinese shipping.
America's Pacific forces are, on their own, also more than sufficient to cripple the Chinese
economy with a trade blockade, and China's navy could not hope to counter America on
its own.
Desperately needing to ensure the oil lifeline stays open for its ally, Russia would likely
try to bolster its Pacific fleet with large elements of its Northern fleet; yet, depending
on the time of year, the arctic ice may not have melted enough to open up shipping lanes.
Either way, whatever naval forces Russia could muster on the Pacific would be needed to aid
the Chinese in fending off the American navy.
This would still not be enough to save the Chinese economy however, as India's navy would
never have to leave home to stop all Chinese shipping in the Indian Ocean.
With a very limited capability to support its own navy far from its shores, China could
at best scrounge together a small battle group of destroyers and cruisers with perhaps a
few nuclear submarines to try and break the Indian blockade; yet with India operating
so close to home shores, it could take advantage of shore-based air power and make quick work
of any Chinese task force.
In the end, China could not hope to stand against naval blockades by both the US and
India, even with reinforcements from the Russian navy.
This is China's glaring Achille's heel: its almost complete reliance on the sea for trade
and oil, and why China has been ambitiously undergoing its modern 'silk road' infrastructure
development program with friendly nations... with very mixed success.
Caught between the threat of raids on its Pacific coast by the US Navy, and Indian forces
pushing through the Himalayas, China would likely choose not to deploy its ballistic
missiles to the West, as even if India managed to break out of the Himalayas, China's western
territory is largely of little economic value.
It would be far more prudent for China to try to keep America's carrier groups at bay
with its DF-21 ballistic missiles, though China has still, to date, failed to show it
has the capability to follow through on the threat of its ballistic missile forces by
displaying a mastery of the the various tracking, recon, and targeting systems and assets needed
to go from launch to successful kill, or the ability to properly defend them from US attack.
At best, the Sino-Russian alliance could hope to hold India at bay in the Himalayas, and
could likely even push India back, once Chinese and Russian personnel created enough forward
air bases on the Tibetan Plateau to support offensive operations.
Yet Chinese and Russian forces would be limited to advancing only as far as the Indian foothills
on the western edges of the Himalayas; the narrow passes and undeveloped roads through
those passes would not make it possible to transport large amounts of hardware into India
itself, while India could hold vast amounts of tanks and artillery on its plains ready
to crush any advance into Indian territory.
In short, it would be guaranteed suicide to try to break out of the Himalayas for both
the Chinese and Russian forces.
Meanwhile, India and the US could starve China into submission by devastating its economy
through naval blockades.
It would take weeks for the US to degrade Russia's and China's naval and air forces
enough to attempt an amphibious assault against either nation, but the high casualties would
make it a very unappealing proposition.
Instead the US could comfortably sit back and bottle the Russian fleet up while systematically
destroying the Chinese fleet- leaving their Indian allies to continue denying China's
desperately needed oil imports.
A US/India and Russia/China war would end with very little territory gained or lost
on either side, and with staggering amounts of casualties for Indian and Chinese forces.
The US navy would likely see significant casualties, but both Russia's and China's navies would
be all but completely destroyed.
China and India's economies would be devastated, but China's specifically could face a catastrophic
collapse that could even lead to the end of its Communist Party's rule.
With so much to lose and practically nothing to gain, neither side would ever seriously
consider such a war, but if they did, China's inability to protect its sea trade routes
would make one side the clear victor.
So, do you foresee a different outcome in this hypothetical matchup?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
Also, be sure to check out our other video called The 10 Weakest Armies in Asia in 2018!
Thanks for watching, and, as always, don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe.
See you next time!