As the war against ISIS continues, a single group has distinguished itself as one of the
Islamic State’s biggest opponents. Kurdish fighters have managed to regain territory
that had been lost to ISIS, and in recent weeks, Kurdish intelligence has claimed the
Islamic State could be defeated in just months. Yet, despite mounting a strong military campaign,
Kurdistan is not an actual country. Like many historically marginalized groups the Kurds
have long been fighting for autonomy. But as of yet, there is no internationally recognized
country known as “Kurdistan”. So we wanted to know, just how powerful would Kurdistan
be?
Well there are an estimated 25 to 35 million Kurds living in the Middle East in an the
area called “Kurdistan”. Although the nation’s borders are loosely defined, Kurdistan
occupies an estimated area of about 100,000 to 150,000 square miles. That’s very generally
about the size of Nepal or North Korea. The Kurdish region covers four main territories,
located within existing sovereign countries. Roughly 14.5 million Kurds live in Southeastern
Turkey, 2 million in Northern Syria, 6 million in Northern Iraq (ih-RAHK), and another 6
million in Western Iran (ir-RAHN). Other Kurds, known as Yazidis (yah-ZEE-dee), live in a
small portion of Armenia, but do not identify as ethnically Kurdish. As a result of the
last few years of political instability in the region, many Kurds have been displaced,
with about one and a half million having made their way to Western Europe.
In terms of autonomy, Iraqi Kurdistan, has had the greatest success. Despite a 1970 agreement
with the Iraqi government, promising the region self governance, Iraq continued to fight the
Kurds until about 1991. Saddam Hussein (sah-DAHM hoo-SAIN) even committed genocide against
the minority group. But after the end of the Gulf War, Iraqi forces withdrew. Iraqi Kurdistan’s
autonomy was reaffirmed in the 2005 Iraqi Constitution. Since no other Kurdish region
has an observable economy, Iraqi Kurdistan stands as the best predictor of Kurdistan’s
overall economic potential. In 2011, Iraqi Kurdistan’s GDP was estimated to be about
23 billion dollars, which comes out to roughly $4,500 per capita. If this figure is applied
to the rest of the region, overall Kurdistan would have a GDP of about 133 billion, ranking
it 60th in the world, next to Hungary. The Kurds see a huge portion of their income from
oil sales.
The relative stability of the Kurdish region has long been attributed to the organization
of their largest, independent military forces. The Kurdistan Worker’s Party, or PKK, has
been engaged in conflict over autonomy with Turkish forces since 1978. They are considered
terrorists by a number of Western countries, including Turkey. The PKK is believed to have
about 7,000 members. Within Syria, the People's Protection Units or YPG has made significant
military advances against ISIS, whose losses have actually given Syrian Kurds greater autonomy.
They boast closer to 50,000 fighters. Finally, the largest force is the official Iraqi Kurdistan
military arm, the Peshmerga. They are believed to have about 200,000 members, and are considered
the most powerful. There are also many smaller groups supporting Kurdish independence, who
fight alongside the PKK, YPG, and Peshmerga.
The Kurds are currently the largest minority group in the world without their own state.
But in recent years, Iraqi Kurdistan has seen higher rates of economic stability than the
rest of Iraq. And the YPG is one of the few military mights that has taken territory from
ISIS. Kurdistan may not be a full fledged country, but based on what they’ve done
with what they have, their potential for becoming a Middle Eastern regional power is impossible
to ignore.
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