2031-2059 The first 10.000 days of the Martian colonization
Ten thousand days one after another. Counting them at the rate of one per second would take
you about three hours. Living them at the rate of one day each day
would take you 27.378 years. It is from this idea that we started to build
this vision of our near future. We asked ourselves: what will the first ten
thousand days of Mars colonization be like? Would it be possible to make well-founded
and rational predictions about how it will take place?
And we have tried! Every prediction is based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of the
technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events
are mentioned. And according to us, the conquest will begin
on November 7 of the year...
November 7, 2031 – Two cargo Starships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations
for the first human base on Mars: Utopia Planitia and Southern Arcadia Planitia.
Both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic atmospheric propellant
plant to produce oxygen and methane from the Martian atmosphere.
The two sites, 400 km apart, were selected on the basis of very restrictive criteria,
such as proximity to deposits of water or ice, an intermediate latitude to ensure the
contribution of solar heat, and uneven terrain with slopes of less than 5 º.
After their descent to Mars, in-depth evaluations carried out by two rovers will lead to the
final choice of the place where the first human settlement will be implanted, which
will provisionally be called "Mars Base Alpha".
February 2032 – After the ground tests are done in both places, the final location of
future "Mars Base Alpha" is selected in Utopia Planitia.
2033.- Replenished with propellant derived from the Martian atmosphere, the spaceship
that had landed in Arcadia Planitia leaves Mars, and returns to Earth in 2035.
November 2033 – Two other unmanned Starships land at the selected location of Mars Base
Alpha: a backup ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System
on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner, and tunneling droids and solar panels
for the first human mission. Several landing fields are also cleared and
prepared robotically at Mars Base Alpha location for the human mission next month.
2033 – Chinese rover lands on Mars to collect samples and launch them back to Earth.
December 25, 2033 – On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX's crew Starships with 12
astronauts each land at Mars Base Alpha – first humans on Mars. The crewed ships (serving
as temporary habitats) are accompanied by a few cargo ships, including one with machinery
for a ground-based “In Situ Resource Utilization” system (ISRU): A set of equipment that collects,
processes, stores, and uses the material that a planet makes available.
2033 – NASA's research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars Base Alpha:
A complex of modules used as research centers to coordinate the first wave of Martian exploration.
2034 – Solar array is built at Mars Base Alpha to supplement the energy generated by
nuclear reactor on-board the first cargo Starship.
2035 – Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at
Mars Base Alpha and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.
2035 – Two constellations of Starlink satellites with a Global positioning system and a Global
communications system are deployed around Mars. Now it's hard to get lost on Mars; possibly
only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.
2035 – Mining of water ice starts near Mars Base Alpha. A ground-based system with an
atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water,
nitrogen, argon, and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.
2036 – Several landing and launch pads for future Starship missions are built a few kilometers
from Mars Base Alpha.
2036 – Martian regolith extraction, chemical separation, and storage equipment is assembled;
the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.
2036 – 2nd crew of 30 astronauts and workers aboard a Starship lands at Mars Base Alpha.
The first modular ground habitat and a hydroponic greenhouse are built to provide Mars Base
Alpha with locally grown vegan food.
2037 – Some of the landed cargo Starships and one crew Starship with a small crew and
some returning scientists leave Mars. Their arrival on Earth is expected after 8 months.
2038 – First fully occupied Starship with 50 scientists, workers, and colonists lands
at Mars Base Alpha. 2039 – NASA's Mars Surface Field Station
is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating
every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).
2040 – The ISRU capabilities of Mars Base Alpha are extended not only to produce air,
water, and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics,
and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial-size 3D printers are also assembled.
2040 – First orbital fuel depot for hydrolox and methalox rocket engines completed at Low
Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen are provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids; the
methane from Earth.
2040 - The International Mars Surface Field Station officially declares that Mars does
not host indigenous life forms.
June 2040 - A large amount of Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars
Base Alpha. We can say that this is the beginning of the terraforming of Mars.
July 2040 – A fish farm is built at Mars Base Alpha to provide more diverse local food
for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.
2040 – Starships with 97 human colonists and workers land at Mars Base Alpha, which
now has a population of around 170. Cargo Starships bring in heavy-duty construction
and tunneling equipment.
2042 – A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with a garden is built at Mars
Base Alpha; work begins to build a new underground section with larger habitats and working areas
to boost the population capacity of the base to at least a thousand inhabitants.
February 2042 – First baby born on Mars. It’s a girl, the daughter of two NASA scientists.
Her name is Noys Lambent. Controversies erupt on Earth over the child’s likely inability
to return to her home planet one day. The Martian colonists reply that by now his "home
planet" is Mars.
July 2042 – Starships with 223 human colonists, workers, and individual wealthy tourists land
at Mars Base Alpha.
November 2042 - First votes to elect an official representative of the Martian colonists. It
will remain in charge for an entire Martian year, equal to 668.6 Sol or 680 Earth days.
March 2043 - Mars Base Alpha changes name. A quick referendum among the 400 settlers
decides that provisionally the settlement will be called Mars City
2043 – The new underground section of Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a
lot of spacious living and working quarters with full radiation protection.
2043 – Cultured meat "farm" is built, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of
the colonists.
2043 – Virgin Galactic Company establishes the first luxury hotel on the outskirts of
Mars City. .
2044 – On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies, a Blue Origin
manned spaceship reaches Phobos with the first modules to make the Free Spaceport of Phobos,
intended to serve as a station and fuel depot and repairs for manned and unmanned spaceships
to Mars, to the asteroid belt and beyond.
2042 – First expedition to the summit of Olympus Mons, the tallest planetary mountain
in the Solar System. During the ascent, the first fatal accident occurs: one of the components
of the expedition loses its life sliding on a steep escarpment
2043 – Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining, and other purposes are established
within a few tens of kilometers from Mars City.
August 2044 – Starships with 300 passengers land at Mars City, which now has a population
of around 770. Among them, the now 73-year-old Elon Musk, who crowns his desire to "go and
die on Mars".
2045 – Large deposits of minerals with a high concentration of rare metals are discovered
a few hundred kilometers from Mars City. A research Mining Base Beta is established.
2045 – Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and
propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport.
2045 – A land trip all around Mars is completed for the 1st time.
2045 – The landing pads near Mars City where crew and cargo Starships have landed and taken
off for 14 years are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for
both passengers and cargo. It includes several ports also for the newly developed Heavy Starship
– the next generation of Starship system with a core diameter of 18 meters, more spacious
living quarters for up to 200 passengers, and spin artificial gravity of 0.38 g (the
same of Mars) when in duo ship mode.
2046 – First two Heavy Starships, each with 400 passengers, land at the spaceport of Mars
City. Cargo Heavy Starships bring parts for a nuclear fusion reactor.
2046 – With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international
Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt
now can rapidly expand.
2046 – Blue Origin's lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best
location for a "Blue Mars base".
2046 – First school opened in Mars City. Now it is allowed for children over 14 years
to travel to Mars along with their parents.
2047 – A public transport route between Mars City and Mining Base Beta is established.
2047 – A short hyperloop line from Mars Base Alpha to its spaceport is finished.
2048 – Two Heavy Starships with 400 passengers land at Mars City and another one with 200
(mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars Base Alpha now surpasses
1200, with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 300 at Mining Base Beta.
2048 – Blue Origin's spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos;
workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about a thousand kilometers
from Mars City.
2049 – A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars City.
2049 – A new underground section of Mars City is finished, boosting its population
capacity to 3000.
2050 – With increased electrical power the industrial capabilities of Mars City are greatly
extended, using the resources harvested, refined and processed around the city and nearby proxy
bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first
factory on Mars manufacturing complex products. Start the “Mars economy”.
2050 – Mars City police force established taking over the policing function in the region
from security guards hired by SpaceX.
January 26, 2051 – Closest Approaches of Mars to Earth since the beginning of the colonization.
The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars City,
200 at Mining Base Beta, and 100 at Blue Mars base.
2051 – With China and Russia focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower
to establish its own base on Mars. 2052 – An international human mission to
Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport
of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars City and take additional crew members
from Mars.
2053 – 1200 colonists land at Mars City and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars
base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface
of Mars.
2053 – At an impact crater near Mars City work begins to build the first large-scale
dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a kilometer across.
2055 – Several more Blue Origin's shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population
to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.
2055 – Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China also establishes
its own colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.
2056 – First public suborbital shuttle route between Mars City and Blue Mars base is established.
2056 – The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, lightweight dome is finished and pressurized
near Mars City. It covers an area of almost a square kilometer; workers move in now to
construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below
the dome.
2057 – New generation of SpaceX's nuclear fusion-powered spaceships arrive at Free Spaceport
of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base
Beta. Old Starships and Heavy Starships are retired
from SpaceX Fleet after 36 years of successful service and sold to several interested countries
and companies.
2058 – The interior infrastructure of Mars City's dome is finished, having a maximum
population capacity of 20'000.
2058 – A hyperloop line and heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City
and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.
2059 – SpaceX's nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its
population to more than 6000.
2059 – First Brazilian Heavy Starship lands at Mars City. One of the nearby proxy bases
is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.
2059 – the United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars – the New Dubai.
March 25, 2059 - In Mars City, in one of SpaceX's residential domes, Elon Musk dies suddenly
at the age of 88. Exactly ten thousand Earth days have passed
since, on November 7, 2031, his first Starships landed on Mars, starting the colonization.