You might imagine that there's a huge sigh of relief spreading
around sterling traders but you would not be quite right.
The currency has rocketed over the past week.
Ever since UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson
held what appeared to have been constructive talks
with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, in Merseyside,
traders and investors have been able to see in the distance
the vague outline of what appears to be a deal on Brexit
between the UK and EU.
Suddenly, those predictions that the pound could drop to $1.10
or even lower are being ripped up.
Instead, it's shot up from around $1.22 to $1.28.
This is the market's way of saying
it thinks the no-deal Brexit bombshell has
been safely defused.
Banks are starting to send out advice
to their investor clients about what happens next.
What is the trade if - bear with me here
- everything goes right?
It's not just to buy sterling.
Homebuilder stocks, bank stocks, and investments
with a purely domestic UK focus are all
thought to be in line for a boost.
And indeed, they've already rallied.
UK government bonds, a bolt hole for those worried about Brexit,
also stand to fall.
So what's not to like?
Well, Brexit has turned snatching defeat
from the jaws of success into an art form.
There is so much that can still go wrong.
We're still beset by headlines suggesting a deal is on,
and then it's still far too early to say.
The shorts, the negative bets, have peeled away from sterling,
but few are brave enough to dive in and buy for the long term
just yet.
UK markets still have a long way to climb
if a deal goes through.
The end to this drama feels close, but we're not there yet.