Hi everyone my name is Stefan Burns and welcome to my channel where we discuss
all things energy geophysics and electromagnetism
today i'm going to give my predictions on what the next three years of solar activity will look like
electromagnetism is one of those forces that control so much of our existence yet we still
take it extremely for granted for example the earth's magnetosphere protects life on
our planet from dangerous high-energy radiation and particles from the sun and cosmos that no
amount of sunblock can protect you from or you can look at the fact that the sun goes through
a magnetic poor reversal every 11 years and these solar cycles have big impacts back here on earth
the sun literally affects everything on our planet without the sun life wouldn't exist
and the earth would be a frozen wasteland it's clear that changes in the sun have big
impacts back here on earth but how do we know solar cycles exist and how are they measured
well astronomers have been taking detailed measurements of the number of sunspots on the sun
for a few hundred years now by the early 1800s it became increasingly clear that the sun goes
through cycles of increasing and decreasing solar activity once scientists began studying the sun's
magnetic field we saw that sunspot numbers were correlated with solar magnetic field stability the
more unstable the sun's magnetic field typically the more sunspots for a while now nasa's released
a forecast of how they think each upcoming solar cycle will play out according to nasa solar cycle
25 is now underway and expected to peak at 115 sunspots in july 2025. they base this
prediction upon the observation that the sun's magnetic poles were about as strong as they were
at the end of solar cycle 24 as they were at the end of solar cycle 23. it's at the beginning and
the end of a solar cycle where the sun's magnetic field is stable possessing clear north and south
poles and sunspot numbers are close to zero a more unstable solar magnetic field means more sunspots
more solar flares more coronal mass ejections and overall greater radiation impact on earth
nasa expects solar cycle 25 to be weaker than the average solar cycle which peaks at a sunspot
number of 179 but they do expect the sun to break a 40-year weakening magnetic field downtrend so
now they know more about solar cycles solar flares and nasa's official predictions for solar cycle 25
there are a couple predictions that we can make which are basically guaranteed to happen
first is that the sun will undergo a magnetic pole reversal in this decade and roughly in the
middle of this reversal is when the solar magnetic field will be its most unstable
the second prediction is that solar cycle 25 will peak in activity between the years of 2024-2026
while there's been anomalous solar activity in the past like during the maunder minimum
it's highly unusual for the sun to deviate from its normal 11-year periodicity solar cycle 24
ended roughly september 2019 and if we add five and a half years to that we end up with march
2025 as being the middle of solar cycle 25 while it's virtually guaranteed that the sun will
undergo magnetic pole reversal in this decade and that the peak of that activity will be around 2025
what's well less known is how strong solar cycle 25 will be if we look at two well correlated
measures of solar activity sunspots and 10.7 centimeter radio flux what we see is that solar
activity thus far has far exceeded predictions for solar cycle 25. instead of lining up at the
50th percentile model what we see is solar activity from 2020 to early 2022 is instead
lining up nicely with the 95th percentile model if this increased activity trend continues in the
95th percentile model given by nasa continues to be the most accurate then solar cycle 25 will be
about average or greater than average in strength across all solar cycles measured furthermore we
can make some interesting observations if we look at past solar cycles specifically cycles 17 to 23
we can see that they had all nearly the same peak solar activity solar cycles 19 and 20 had
this seesaw relationship and it almost looks like the low activity of solar cycle 20 might have been
a reaction to the extra strong activity of solar cycle 19. like 19 and 20 if solar cycles 24 and 25
have that same seesaw relationship except inverse then what we might see is that solar cycle 25 is
extra strong to compensate for the lackluster solar activity of solar cycle 24 and therefore
solar cycle 25 might be a real scorcher based on currently available data and past observations to
summarize I think solar cycle 25 is gonna be much stronger than predicted it will fall somewhere in
between that 75th and 95th percentile model given by nasa since 2009 when the low activity of solar
cycle 24 began our electrical infrastructure and digital communication technologies have
increased significantly and if solar cycle 25 does buck the official predictions then expect
greater disruptions to telecommunications and our power grids from solar storms solar flares
and coronal mass ejections with increased solar activity we'll see increased amplitudes in the
Schumann resonances which will cause greater bioelectric health disruptions especially for
bioelectrically sensitive individuals lastly with more solar radiation coming into the earth it's
likely to get hotter before it gets colder thanks so much for watching if you'd like
to learn more about solar storms solar flares and coronal mass ejections then watch this video here