Hello this is the sugarcane rainfall outlook for the southern Queensland growing areas updated on
the 27th of April 2023. This Outlook will be covering areas including Bundaberg,
Isis Maryborough and Rocky Point, first looking at recent conditions and then the
rainfall outlook for the coming fortnight into the next six months out to October.
On the next slide on the right hand side we see a map showing the southern Queensland growing areas
on the left rainfall totals for the month of April up into the 25th of the month.
As you can see here the highest totals have been either 20 to kind of 50, 60mm range but for the
most part rainfall totals for the month have been very much below average. For example at Nambour we
are looking at rainfall totals of 44mm for the month that's compared to the average of 150mm,
and at Bundaberg 28mm for the month of April compares to the average of 55mm, so it has been
quite a dry April across the southern cane growing areas. On the next slide we're seeing the chance
of exceeding median rainfall in May on the left and then June to August on the right hand side.
In May because of these brown shades we're seeing we are looking at a low
chance of exceeding median rainfall, so it is looking like a drier than average month.
On the right hand side from June to August we see a low to roughly equal chance of exceeding
median rainfall, we see fewer brown shades even increasing up to that white 50% range there.
Next model accuracy and this is based on past performance at that time of year. What you see
here is roughly the percentage of time the model has got it right in the past.
On the left in May median rainfall forecasts are typically correct 55 to 75% of the time
indicated by these green shades on the left. In June to August it is typically correct 65 to 75%
of the time so we do see more of those darker green shades appearing as we head from June.
Next looking at the rainfall outlook for the next two weeks and in particular the chance of
exceeding 25mm each week for the next two weeks. On the left we do see the chance of exceeding 25mm
being up to 25%, particularly for some of those areas along the south east coast and this is due
to some possible showers and storms coming through on the 30th of April which I will show coming up,
but then we do see a dry start to May with some cooler mornings coming through
and as a result in the second week from the 7th of May it is looking like a generally less than
10% chance of seeing more than 25mm for the southern Queensland sugarcane growing areas.
On the next slide looking at the outlook for the rest of May as a whole. On the left hand side is
the May 50% forecast chance versus the historical median on the right hand side, and as you can see
just by eyeballing the two maps you can see quite large differences indicating that the May forecast
is looking to be drier than the historical median for southeast Queensland particularly see that for
the Bundaberg area, we do see quite a difference in those green shadings but we still see some
similarities heading further south down the coast but generally looking to be drier than the
historical median for May. Next what you're seeing here is for May the high 75% chance of receiving
at least compared to the 25% or low chance of receiving at least and the best way to think about
these maps is that it does show that rainfall range that you do see in the BOM Weather app, so
what you're seeing here for example from Bundaberg for the month of May, generally expecting between
10 to 25mm as being a high chance of seeing that and the lower chance of seeing 50 to 100mm so it
does show that middle 50% range. Next moving on to the month of June and again we're comparing
the 50% forecast chance on the left to the historical median on the right hand side
and the 50% forecast chance is looking slightly closer to the historical median as you kind of
approach the coast but it is looking much drier further inland just comparing these two maps here.
Next again looking at that high versus low chance for the month of June at 75%
chance versus 25% chance similar to the BoM rainfall app. Next we look at the
three-month period from June all the way up to August. Looking at the 50% forecast chance on
the left versus the historical median on the right hand side. And the 50% forecast chance
is looking close to or slightly below the historical median for southern growing areas.
Next again looking at 75% chance to 25% chance for the three-month period of June to August.
Looking as we head into Spring and at this stage it is too early to give a confident forecast for
Spring but as we release further updates before then we will have a better picture of what we can
expect. So what you see here are the long-term historical averages, based on data from 1991
to 2020. And what we can say at this point is international models are currently indicating
drier than median conditions I should say, heading from September for southeast Queensland.
Finally short-term weather watch points and as we can see here we're looking at the 24-hour
rainfall totals to 10 p.m on Friday, Saturday and Sunday of this week. We do have that trough moving
through southern Queensland on the Saturday and so that's indicating that we could see some of
those rainfall totals exceeding 25mm as you saw before along the coast. As we head also into the
Sunday we see that system clearing off the coast pretty quickly, but then heading into the first
week of May as I mentioned we are seeing much drier and cooler conditions coming through.
But as always check the latest forecast and warnings on the Bureau's website or the BOM
weather app through the week. That's it for this Outlook, be sure to send your feedback
to agriculture@ bom.gov.au, and we'll see you next Outlook. Thanks for watching.