With every passing year, humans on Earth launch various missions to other planets to learn
more about the solar system.
Meanwhile, on the ground, astronomers are scanning the skies for potential signs of
life in the universe.
If we one day discover an intelligent, alien existence, it’ll constitute one of the greatest
scientific moments of all time… but what if it’s impossible from the beginning to
better human beings?
This is Unveiled and today we’re answering the extraordinary question; Are humans the
most advanced civilization in the universe?
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The famous Drake Equation, created in 1961 by Doctor Frank Drake, aims to predict the
possible number of technological civilizations there are in our galaxy and universe.
The problem, though, is that answers to it vary.
Wildly.
To reach a solution, we need to know the number of possible Earth-like planets there are,
with the right conditions for life.
Then, the fraction of those planets that actually do develop life; then the fraction of those
lifeforms that become intelligent; and then the fraction of those intelligent lifeforms
that develop interstellar communication and reach a comparable level to humankind…
The criteria is strict, but the numbers to input are vague, and that makes the Drake
Equation extremely challenging - nay, impossible - to solve right now.
For today’s question especially, we’re then hindered by our own almost certainly
limited human perspective, unable to conclusively determine what would count as more advanced
than us.
We can’t really know how advanced life can become yet for a few reasons.
First, how rare is it for non-living matter to become alive?
This is known as Abiogenesis, and refers to the origin of life and how organic compounds
managed to form the very first life… and it’s an area of study still quite poorly
understood.
There are a number of theories, some more convincing than others, but no one knows exactly
how life initially began, even just on Earth.
Then there are the problems and pitfalls of evolution.
We know that it’s taken billions of years for everything that’s alive on this planet
right now to get to this point - that it’s an incredible but also incredibly slow process.
But some theories argue that life more advanced than humans will’ve had to have developed
over an even greater period of time.
Generally speaking, though, that’s not much of a problem for the universe as a whole.
Sure, it’s taken 4.5 billion years for modern life to arrive on Earth, but the universe
itself is some 13.8 billion years’ old.
There’s time and then some for life to have developed elsewhere, then, and if more time
really does equate to more advanced beings - which it may or may not - then there could
be creatures on planets out there with more than twice what humans and the Earth have
to work with… meaning many, many more advanced civilizations than our own.
It almost certainly isn’t as simple as all that, though.
For one, the timescale for the development of human civilization really depends on where
you start from - the creation of Earth (billions of years ago), the first appearance of ancient
hominins (millions of years ago), the development of agriculture (thousands of years ago), or
someplace else?
Theoretical civilizations could well advance at differing rates, too, some slower and some
faster than humans.
Meanwhile, there’s a concept known as the Great Filter to contend with, offering another
explanation as to why space doesn’t already appear to be creaking with intelligent life,
despite the apparently vast statistical probability that there is other life out there.
While the Fermi Paradox asks “where are all the aliens?”, the Great Filter answers
that there has to be a particular step in the development of life that’s so rare that
it almost never happens, or that it happened just once for our own case.
It’s a theoretical concept dialling down on whatever it is that seemingly prevents
intelligent life from becoming common in the universe.
There are a number of suggestions as to what this preventative structure could be…
The chances of Abiogenesis occurring anywhere could just be astronomical; or the chances
of life developing and surviving for so long could be miniscule; or there’s the possibility
that despite abiogenesis and evolution, all civilizations inevitably destroy themselves
when they become too intelligent… and that’s why we haven’t found aliens yet; they’ve
all killed themselves off.
It’s also why many are concerned that various human activities will soon bring about our
own demise… we could be falling into the same trap, where our apparent intelligence
becomes our downfall.
The problem again, though, is that we only have one data point to go from, ourselves,
and nothing to compare us to.
So, while it’s wholly unlikely that we’re the most advanced civilization there is…
it’s also not impossible!
Similarly, we can’t reliably say how long a civilization lasts once it becomes advanced,
either.
We’re obviously still here, but that’s all we know.
We, humankind, might’ve completed the Great Filter already… or we could still be passing
through it, destined to one day disappear for whatever reason other advanced, hypothetical
civilizations apparently have done.
The outlook is either promising, or really rather bleak!
But, whatever the case, it adds another strand to this thought experiment, where humans could
not only be the most advanced civilization right now, but also of all time, across the
universe’s entire history.
Logic says that one civilization has to rank as the most advanced ever, so what if we’re
it?
After all, from our perspective, there aren’t currently any other candidates.
Could we really be that unique?
Well, as fun (or frankly terrifying) as it might be to imagine that humans are the most
intelligent living thing there ever was… it’s also extremely, extremely unlikely.
At this stage, we can’t even be totally sure that we’re the first advanced beings
on Earth.
We’re yet to find proof of any life outside of Earth.
And, given that when we observe other stars, planets and galaxies in the sky we’re actually
seeing them as they were however many lightyears in the past… if we ever did find signs of
alien life, we’d only ever be seeing it as it was in its own ancient history.
Baring all of that in mind, there have been various studies to calculate just how special
(or not special) we truly are.
For example, one 2016 study by the physicist Adam Frank argued that the only way humans
could be the first technologically advanced species in the history of the universe is
if the odds of a civilization developing on habitable planets were less than one in ten
billion trillion… but most predictions have the chances of life as much higher than that.
A 2020 study led by a team at the University of Nottingham, for instance, argued that there
could be as many as 211 actively communicating civilizations right now, in just our own Milky
Way Galaxy…
If that’s true then human life, while still special, isn’t unique, and could even be
primitive compared to some of the others.
Almost all calculations of this kind, however, depend at some point on how you apply the
Drake Equation - all of it, or part of it - which we know is open for interpretation,
bias and inaccuracy.
According to one multi-authored study in 2018, for example, titled “Dissolving the Fermi
Paradox”, humans really could be a one off…
It used a parameter of values, rather than exact numbers, and concluded that humans are
most likely the only intelligent species around; that our existence is so improbably, incomprehensibly
rare.
On the other hand, there’s the often-cited Infinite Monkey Theorem - the idea that monkeys
randomly pressing keys on a computer could eventually type out the works of Shakespeare
- which argues that given enough time, anything can happen, no matter how unlikely it might
seem.
So, for civilizations more advanced than human beings, it just depends on whether 13.8 billion
years is enough time?
In truth, there’s just too much uncertainty about almost all the key values required here
to estimate where on a Kardashev-type ladder of advancement we might rank, or if indeed
there are other civilizations out there to even rank alongside.
With a sample size of one, life on Earth, we just don’t know enough about life in
general - its properties and potential.
Some will argue that it’s exceedingly common, pointing out that we’re so far one for one;
that the only planet that we know of that’s perfect for life - Earth - has successfully
developed it.
But, at the same time, others see our being here as just the product of extremely good
fortune and impossibly aligned circumstances.
If we’re so unlikely that we’re actually alone, then we’re naturally the most advanced…
if we’re not, if life itself is common, well, the odds that we’re the superior ones
aren’t at all in our favour.
What do you think?
Is there anything we missed?
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