Donald Trump has become the 45th President of the United States.
How will his administration change the course of science and, more specifically, chemistry?
The best answer we’ve got right now is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, but that doesn’t mean there’s not a story.
It means now’s a good time to start following the money.
Federal funding for non-defense R&D has been hovering around $70 billion annually since
about 2001.
But experts are concerned that sum could drop with a Republican controlled Congress and
Trump at the helm of the executive branch.
That’s not to say Republicans don’t support basic science research.
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle recently passed the 21st Century Cures Act, designed
to spur medical innovation.
Rather, many Republicans are pushing for cuts to all discretionary funding.
That includes money for scientific research.
Republicans’ budgetary shears could be made razor sharp with Trump’s pick for the director
of the White House Office of Management & Budget, Mick Mulvaney, who’s been described as a
fiscal hawk.
The legislation keeping the government funded right now is set to expire in April.
By then, we could have a clearer picture of the fiscal priorities of Congress and the
Trump administration.
With the government poised to tighten its purse strings, some researchers think climate
science will face particularly aggressive cuts.
After the election, a group of “guerilla archivists” actually started backing up
government climate data to independent servers.
The fears are fueled by Trump’s skepticism over climate change, which he has tempered
recently.
But during his campaign, he did vow to cancel the landmark Paris Agreement to curb greenhouse
gas emissions and rising temperatures.
Another source of concern is an op-ed piece written by two Trump advisors saying NASA
should shed its Earth-observing missions and focus on space exploration.
Although the piece added that Earth observing should be handled instead by other agencies,
none currently has capabilities that match NASA’s.
Cutting NASA’s Earth-observing missions could leave substantial gaps in our ability
to monitor our planet and hamstring climate science and several other fields that rely
on satellite data, including forestry, agriculture, and weather forecasting.
NASA officials tried to cast calm last month by pointing out that Trump has yet to fill
key science posts, including NASA’s administrator.
Until those roles are filled, much of the discussion now is speculative noise and not
meaningful signal, the officials said.
Still, not everyone shares this measured optimism.
Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist for the National Center for Atmospheric Research,
still worries that even temporary cuts to NASA’s Earth studies could have lasting
effects on America’s leadership in Earth and climate science.
NASA grants play a central role in supporting young scientists working to better understand
our planet and that support could be on the chopping block, Kevin tells us.
Kevin: The aspect that worries me most, one of the casualties are graduate students and
the next generation of scientists.
Matt: Trump has promised to lift restrictions on American energy producers, support fracking,
and encourage the use of natural gas, which are all exciting prospects to U.S. chemical
makers.
To explain why, we visited Cal Dooley, president and CEO of the American Chemistry Council,
a trade association of chemical manufacturers, including Dow, DuPont, and ExxonMobil Chemical
Company.
Cal: We use natural gas as our feedstock in the chemical industry.
We break those molecules apart and make all of the chemical products that go into 96%
of the consumer products that people touch every day.
Matt: Cal says he’s certain the incoming administration understands the need for regulations
that address health and environmental concerns without placing undue burden on American energy
producers.
But that doesn’t mean the chemical industry agrees with all of the administration’s
proposed policies.
Under current international trade deals, the chemical industry has become one of the country’s
leading exporters.
Trump’s trade plans call for protecting American jobs by pulling back from those trade
deals, which would restrict U.S. exports.
Cal: The American Chemistry Council and our member companies are committed to trade liberalization.
Actions that actually impede trade liberalization--that increase tariffs--are problematic for the
chemical industry and a lot of our customers downstream.
Matt: We’ve only grazed the tip of the iceberg that is the Trump presidency.
We haven’t even touched on drug prices, vaccines, cabinet picks, let alone anything
happening at the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, or the National
Institutes of Health.
But C&EN’s expert staff is covering all of that and more.
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