Let’s talk about Venezuela
and why it has two competing presidents.
Juan Guaido is the one recognised by
dozens of countries.
But Nicolas Maduro is the one in charge.
In parliament the opposition parties hold a majority.
But elections are coming up
and the opposition is split over whether to boycott them.
And while the politicians argue
people in Venezuela are struggling more than ever.
So if things are so bad why does Maduro still hold power?
What could happen if the opposition
decides to sit out the elections?
And why aren’t there big protests anymore?
For years we’ve been watching Venezuela climb to the top
of just about every awful index there is.
Worst economy in the world
the highest murder rate
and a refugee crisis that rivals the one in Syria.
That’s down to a combination of bad economic policy
corruption
and in the last two years — sanctions.
And this is how hard it is for people to feed themselves.
Hyperinflation has made Venezuela’s currency
the bolivar, almost worthless.
The minimum wage is 1.2 million bolivars a month.
That’s just over a dollar.
At that rate you’d have to work two months
to buy a carton of eggs.
And prices go up every week.
It’s a mess.
But it wasn’t always this bad.
Venezuela was once the place to be in Latin America.
Its huge oil reserves helped build a booming economy.
But over time corruption and inequality grew
and the shine started to wear off.
Enter President Hugo Chavez.
His social programmes were popular
but they relied on taking over businesses
controlling the currency
and high oil prices which eventually crashed.
So by the time Chavez died
his vice president, Nicolas Maduro
inherited an economy in a lot of trouble.
Then 2018 happened.
Maduro said he won the presidential race.
But the opposition and a lot of countries disagreed.
So the opposition basically said the presidency is vacant
and according to the constitution
the president of the parliament should take over
and call new elections.
That man was Juan Guaido.
So for the last two years
both men have laid claim to the presidency.
Most opposition parties
consider Guaido to be the acting president.
He’s also recognised by nearly 60 countries
including most of Latin America, the US and the EU.
And then there’s Maduro
who has the backing of countries
like Russia and China.
And he’s the real authority on the ground.
He has the loyalty of the military
the national guard and a civilian militia.
Military officials also control industries like
the state oil company
and Maduro’s appointees run institutions like
the Supreme Court.
And even though the government
is nearly bankrupt
Venezuela still manages to trade with
allies like Turkey and Iran.
Guaido just can’t access those kinds of resources.
But he does have public support.
Just not as much as before.
In 2019 hundreds of thousands of people
rallied for months, backing Guaido.
And after nearly 50 people were killed
mostly by security forces
momentum fizzled out.
Guaido’s coalition of opposition parties then tried
other ways to put pressure on Maduro.
And they had help from abroad.
Sanctions have blocked Venezuelan oil exports.
Government assets worth billions of dollars
have been frozen, including Venezuelan gold
in the Bank of England.
Mercenaries have even tried
and failed
to overthrow Maduro.
But after all that Maduro is still around.
And his supporters say what the opposition has been doing
is evidence of an international conspiracy to remove Maduro.
And here’s another thing.
Maduro is pretty unpopular.
His disapproval rating according to one pollster
is 77%.
But Guaido’s isn’t far behind.
And now there are parliamentary elections.
Maduro says more than 100 parties
have candidates running
and he’s invited foreign observers.
But Guaido and some of the main opposition parties
say the elections have been rigged from the start.
Opposition leaders have been jailed or simply removed
and several political parties have been banned.
They also say the body that runs elections is made up of
people appointed by the pro-Maduro Supreme Court.
So instead Guaido and the main opposition parties
are doing their own thing.
They’re calling on people to boycott
the election in December.
And in the meantime they’re holding their own referendum.
It’s to ask people if they approve of what Maduro’s
doing and if they want him gone.
But some just aren't convinced.
They say it’s better to run and try to win a seat in parliament.
Either way Maduro stands to win
control of basically everything.
And people who want change
haven’t been protesting the way they used to.
They’re in the middle of a pandemic.
There’s a state of emergency.
There’s also a lot of fear.
So the protests may be smaller but the anger is growing.
A lot of people also seem to have just given up.
Many have lost faith in politicians, protests
and elections.
Whether Juan Guaido can convince people to boycott
the vote and take part in his referendum
may give us an idea of just how much hope
is actually left.
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And I’ll see you next week.