Head to the west coast of America and it’s all sun, sea, sand, and celebrity, going by
most media coverage. But, actually, there’s a hidden threat lurking behind the scenes in LA,
San Francisco, and San Diego, and for everywhere else in this part of the world. This time, though,
it’s not earthquakes… but a situation that’s come to be known as California’s “other” Big One.
So, this is Unveiled, and today we’re answering the extraordinary question;
is California about to be wiped off of the face of the Earth?
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For decades you’ll have read and heard about the “Big One” that’s
projected to strike America’s West Coast at seemingly any moment. A monstrous earthquake,
potentially unmatched in modern records, that - according to some models - could
literally level entire cities. But what you might’ve missed in amongst all the
talk of a terrible ‘quake… is the fact that, actually, there’s another major
(and apparently imminent) disaster looming on the horizon, as well: the ARkStorm Scenario.
The ARkStorm Scenario has nothing to do with earthquakes or faultines,
but rather it’s a coming atmospheric catastrophe that scientists claim is
slowly and ominously brewing over the Pacific Ocean. It brings with it a huge sense of mystery,
too, however… because, although our knowledge and data for hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean,
for the Caribbean and southern states of America, is now quite vast… the records
for Pacific events are much patchier. And the patterns are therefore more difficult to predict.
Nevertheless, scientists are increasingly confident that there’s danger afoot, and they
do have some past examples from history to draw upon, as they try to predict what might be about
to happen. According to research conducted largely by the United States Geological Survey (or,
USGS) major storms have struck California before. By analyzing sediment and silt levels across the
region, we know that there was an event in (or around) the year 212, then 440, and then we have
numerous further, huge storms dated all the way up to the years 1750 and 1810. The most recent
of all, however, occurred across the years 1861 and ‘62. The gaps between storms vary,
it’s not as though they happen like clockwork… but researchers calculate
that the storm returns on average every 150-200 years. 150 years from the last one,
then, takes us to the year 2012. So, by some measures, America is overdue.
But what will actually happen when ARkStorm strikes? If predictions ring true, it’ll unfold
with the arrival of multiple, exceptionally strong atmospheric rivers that will bombard
the California coastline. Atmospheric rivers are narrow branches of weather, carrying extreme
amounts of water. In this case, they will form over the Pacific, drawing in massive amounts of
moisture, before lashing out across the land. These are more than just your average storm
surges, though. They bring with them winds of up to 125 miles per hour; at least six thousand
square miles of major flooding; and wholly unpredictable conditions for a days-long deluge,
perhaps even for a weeks-long event. In the worst case ARkStorm Scenario, we’re talking more than
a month of continuous, horrendous weather. It will see the highest populated state in
America ruthlessly ruined by endlessly swelling waters, and a potential economic cost of more that
$725 billion - which is roughly three times that projected for the “Big One” earthquake scenario.
While researchers have stopped short of predicting exactly the loss of life,
it’s almost inevitable that many people will die during ARkStorm. Either directly due to the event
itself, or as a result of the long-term effects, during a recovery period that could take years,
even decades. In the aftermath of ARkStorm, power may be cut to parts (or all) of California
for long periods of time; agriculture will suffer immensely, and may never fully recover;
the delivery of supplies to all those affected would be a national (and international) effort,
and there would likely still be many thousands of ARkStorm refugees who
aren’t regularly reached. Life, for all those caught up in the chaos,
would become wholly unpredictable… with new problems and threats arriving daily. The winds
and landslides and flood waters of the initial event will’ve transformed the local landscapes,
turning many of them into extremely dangerous locations… while the general, physical breakdown
of towns and cities would continue for long after ARkStorm itself had run its course.
Indeed, that $725 billion potential bill - as estimated by the USGS - puts ARkStorm into an
extremely high bracket in terms of “major natural disasters that might soon happen”. Add into the
equation that storms of this kind are expected to strike more frequently in the future, then,
due to general climate change, and you’d imagine that California was “all hands to
the pump” to prepare for what’s coming. But, actually, not really. In the past,
some of the local authorities have faced criticism for seemingly not being prepared enough for the
massive earthquake that’s scheduled to come their way… and so, in more recent years, it would appear
that more has been done to “earthquake-proof” certain key areas. However, critics claim that
a similarly underwhelming approach might be setting in for ARkStorm, at present.
According to the USGS, ARkStorm could require the evacuation of 1.5 million people,
maybe more. Floodwaters could reach 20 feet in depth in some parts, and around a quarter of
properties in California (at least) could end up badly (perhaps irreversibly) damaged. The USGS
says that “only perhaps 12% of California property is insured”, however, so there’s the very real
possibility of millions more rendered homeless with any property investments instantly wiped
out. What’s more worrying still, then, is that the USGS warns that “Californian flood protection is
not designed for an ARkStorm-like event”. Here’s where the concerns crossover with some past (and
ongoing) criticisms of US West Coast earthquake preparation. Multiple scientific models foretell
the disasters that will one day hit… but the region is seemingly failing to match the threat
with action. While the USGS does highlight that “much has been done to protect the state
from future flooding”, it concludes that current measures are still not sufficient for ARkStorm.
So, what happens next? For the residents of California, it could certainly pay to keep
a close eye on weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean. And, for property owners,
perhaps it's time to seek out an insurance quote, before it’s too late. One slight ray
of hope with the ARkStorm Scenario is that experts say that it will, to some degree,
be predictable. Unlike with earthquakes, we should be able to spot ARkStorm forming a few days before
it actually reaches land. Authorities should therefore be able to organize a mass evacuation,
and prepare homes and buildings (as best they can) for what’s to come.
As for what will happen afterwards, it’s impossible to tell. California
could well be changed forever, if the storm unfolds akin to the highest and most brutal
predictions. Yes, after days of potentially incredible turmoil, it will then pass,
as all storms do… but there really could be untold destruction left in its wake.
What do you think? Is there anything we missed? Let us know in the comments, check out these other
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