the europeans launched the original
nuclear deal
so it was fitting today that uk french
and german foreign ministers
met the new u.s secretary of state
virtually in an attempt to revive it
we're obviously concerned about uh the
risk of further non-compliance by iran
with the jcpoa the nuclear
uh deal all the more reason to
reinvigorate the transatlantic diplomacy
which is why i've been here
with my french and german colleagues but
also speaking to tony blinken
in the us and making sure we chart a way
forward and
look to find a way to re-engage
diplomatically in order to
restrain iran but also bring it back
into compliance with its nuclear
obligations
there's a big element of deja vu to this
familiar issues and faces
and the deal signed in 2015 meant also
overcoming barriers of distrust and
sidelining hardliners on both sides
what's more key people who made possible
the joint comprehensive plan of action
or jcpoa
are now running president biden's
foreign policy
i think uh president biden definitely
wants to revive the nuclear deal and
it's interesting that two of his most
senior officials
um jake sullivan who's the national
security adviser bill burns the new
director of the cia
are the two officials who under the
obama administration
were most directly involved in the
original negotiations leading up to the
jcpoa agreement in 2015. so they know a
lot about
this and they know a lot about talking
to
iran but the world has changed since
2015.
president trump walked away from the
nuclear deal and ramped up sanctions
against iran
for its part the islamic republic has
broken out of the agreement
and even now is threatening to go
further with its nuclear programme
in washington there remains strong
political opposition in certain circles
to
the original deal formed in 2015
and that remains and needs to be
contended with
in tehran obviously an upcoming
presidential election of their own
in june which constrains the current
iranian president
from a clean return but also makes the
question of whether
when and how to return an even more
heated political issue
in tehran's politics as well in the gulf
itself
multiple missile attacks by iranian
proxies on saudi targets in recent years
underline another element of this the
unease felt by us
allies the gulf states and israel about
any new diplomatic opening to iran
president biden will have to set aside
those worries
at least temporarily in order to get the
jcpoa running again
i think perhaps a two-stage process
is more realistic so one has a sort of
minimal
resumption of the jcpoa
reversing the iranian breaches of the
deal which is
quite possible a reversion of the
taking back the sanctions that donald
trump imposed perhaps in a phased
way and then perhaps separately with a
different
caste of players to discuss things like
iran's regional role if the diplomatic
appeal of returning to the nuclear deal
suits the west
does iran see its value too it exerts
more regional power than it used to
and its supreme leader doesn't sound too
convinced
of the value of fresh deals with the us
earlier this week a rocket attack on a
coalition base in northern iraq
killed an american officer these types
of incident
present a constant danger of flare-ups
and escalation
and ultimately it may be the desire to
contain these
that provides the best rationale for
fresh diplomacy
what i think also was learned from the
trump administration is that
not having the nuclear deal certainly
didn't de-escalate tensions in the
region and in fact
in many cases escalated it quite
severely
such that iran's choices and decisions
in terms of its foreign policy in the
region
only presented more and more aggressive
a threat
to its immediate neighbors so the
restart of this process may feel like a
familiar story
complete with some of the same leading
characters but the geopolitics have
changed and it'll not be long before we
see whether that also reshapes the
diplomacy
i'm joined now from the us by barbara
slavin director of the
future iran initiative at the atlantic
council think tank
and ali is iran project director at the
international crisis group
he's a former u.n official who helped
cement the 2015 nuclear deal
barbara if i may start with you the u.s
has said this evening this is an
opportunity for diplomacy
after years because of the new
administration what is your reading of
that
i'm very encouraged frankly by the news
that's coming out that the united states
would be willing
to attend a meeting of the joint
commission which
implements the uh the nuclear deal
this would give the united states an
opportunity not only to consult with
european allies the
russians and the chinese but to sit down
and talk directly to the iranians
we've seen a lot of shadow boxing i
think over the last couple of weeks
while the united states
does its consultations gets its uh ideas
in order and i think now we are ready to
begin the diplomacy again so
today is a very good day i think ali
what's your reading on this because of
course you've got to have it on both
sides and iran's foreign ministers
tweeted this evening
that the west must demand an end to
trump's legacy of economic
terrorism against iran just to
paraphrase that
do you think that there is that appetite
look i think the iranians would see the
signals from the us as positive
but insufficient insufficient in the
sense that what they
care about the most is sanctions relief
and at this stage it appears that the
biden administration is not really
considering providing iran with any kind
of economic reprieve
and you know the primary motivator on
the iranian side
is not that they have an election coming
up or is not that they
um have uh you know are in middle of
fighting with the covet
uh pandemic uh as one of the worst hit
countries in the region
but it's a matter of principle you know
they had a deal with the us
and uh and the p5 plus one of the world
powers
uh that the u.s reneged on and if now
they
agree to any kind of return to the
diplomatic table without
any kind of mia culpa or regret from the
us's side
and if they agree to any additional
concessions uh based on
the sanctions that trump administration
imposed it they are afraid it will teach
a very bad lesson to the u.s that
basically iran responds
to pressure and sanctions and then this
would be a slippery slope of unending
u.s demands so
what is the way back for you do you
think having just outlined that position
so basically there is a need without any
doubt for the us
to freeze this process of escalation
that we're in because
uh the iranians based on the legislation
that the iranian parliament passed
after their top nuclear scientists was
assassinated last year
uh will reduce the access of un
inspectors to iran's nuclear facilities
as of next tuesday
and this process of escalation will
continue because the iran's nuclear
program is now growing by the day
so we need to freeze this process and
again the only
card that the us will play that would
get iran's attention
is some economic reprieve and then both
sides would have to get back to the
negotiating table which could very well
be the joint commission
of the the nuclear deal where all the
stakeholders sit at the table
and discuss a timetable for mutual
return into compliance
which i'm hoping would happen uh before
the next iranian president comes to
office
uh in august that is also a key day as
you bring up
barbara sabin to bring you back into
this the biden administration
uh seems less close to israel do you
think that gives biden more freedom to
maneuver
yeah i think it does i think that the
bide administration is not only
shown a certain independence from the
israelis but is also noticeably less
warm taught
towards saudi arabia and the united arab
emirates which are the other countries
that have been uh ambivalent to say the
least
about the return to the nuclear
agreement
so i think uh you know joe biden is
showing a lot of independence he's also
showing that he can't be
pushed around by the iranians with
artificial deadlines i mean with all due
respect to
to ali yes parliament passed legislation
but parliament is not in charge the
supreme leader of the country is in
charge
and if he sees signs that the united
states is indeed willing to lift the
sanctions
uh he can pause this move out of the
joint comprehensive plan of action one
other bit of news tonight the united
states has apparently
formally withdrawn the trump
administration's
efforts to quote unquote snap back u.n
sanctions on iran this was a failed
attempt last year
but now the u.s has formally rescinded
this there are a number of signals i
think that are being sent to iran
and hopefully this meeting of the joint
commission can happen
sooner rather than later and then we can
get back to the business of sequencing a
mutual
return to compliance with the deal ali
to give us an insight into robert malley
biden's new iran envoy
you know him you've worked alongside
what what do you think his approach will
be
look um rob's approach uh would be the
biden administration's approach uh
not necessarily uh the the approach that
we advocated uh
at crisis group which was a swift and
clean return to the jcpoa
i think the problem that the biden
administration is now facing is
very strong political resistance in
congress towards
lifting the sanctions just to return to
the original agreement
but at the same time as i said the
iranians would not agree to anything
other than return to the original
agreement
and i think you know i've seen this
movie before these seemingly
unbridgeable gaps between the two sides
could be bridged because at the end of
the day both want the same thing
both understand that jcpoa is in their
interest
uh and that without the jcpoa there
would be
really very difficult to imagine any
kind of diplomacy
to address other issues of this
agreement be it iran's ballistic missile
program or its regional activities
um so eventually i think there is a way
a creative way that they can find
uh to synchronize their uh their their
actions and
uh return to the jcpoa in a coordinated
and staggered fashion
but the first step is to get to the
negotiating table and although i think
these
signals that barbara mentioned from the
u.s are positive
but the only thing that gets iran's
attention is some kind of economic
reprieve
barbara do you think that the just
thinking about it from the americans
point of view
how does joe biden do this while not
losing face
but also trusting that iran will keep
their side of the deal with regards to
nuclear weapons
i don't think joe biden will lose face
he has a rather good popularity ratings
right now mostly because of his handling
of the covid crisis the economic crisis
and most americans frankly are fairly
disengaged from foreign policy
uh he has a lot of leeway congress
cannot prevent him from returning to
the original deal although it would have
to say perhaps on some sort of follow-on
agreement
so again i don't think this is going to
be hard one suggestion that ali and the
crisis group has made
is that the united states uh signaled
that it would have
no formal objection to iran obtaining a
five billion dollar loan from the
international monetary fund
for covet relief a signal like that
or uh signaling to the south koreans
that they can release
frozen oil revenues of of iran's in
south korean banks these would be
concrete
steps that the u.s could take so again
i'm
i you know it's taken a little while a
lot of people are impatient but joe
biden has only been president for
for not even a month and i think we're
going to get there
just a word on the people of iran uh and
you mentioned there the
the impact of covert but also the impact
of the economic sanctions
terrible absolutely terrible i was just
directing that if also
barbara's your view welcome as well but
ali to you what would you say on that as
well
look the iranian people are stuck
between
a government in iran that doesn't really
uh
care about them enough or mismanages the
economy or
uh has not been able to really tackle
the pandemic in in an appropriate
way and a an uncaring united states
during the
trump administration uh so it i think it
is fundamentally important for the biden
administration to demonstrate
uh that it is adopting a very different
approach from the maximum pressure
policy that trump pursued
and the signals that it has sent today
are positive but again as i said
they're insufficient the reality is that
the biggest victims of maximum pressure
have been the iranian people it hasn't
really weakened the iranian regime or
the leadership
the price has been paid by the iranians
and they would welcome
a return to normalcy