Turkey's incumbent President Erd
has been declared
winner of Turkey's runoff electi
to Turkey.
I would like to thank each
and every member of our nation
who has once again
given us the responsibility
of governing the country
for the next five years with the
they have made to All right.
The announcement
made a short time ago
will extend
Erdogan's rule into a third deca
The election was triggered two w
when neither main candidate
got more than 50% of the initial
Erdogan's grip on power was chal
a coalition of groups from the l
The biggest issues in the campai
may sound familiar to American v
Turkey is facing
soaring inflation
and growing questions
over its immigration policies.
Let's bring in now
Aaron David Miller
he is a former State
Department Middle East negotiato
Good to see you. So
how was Erdogan
able to pull off yet another vic
Two quick takeaways on this, Fre
It's really hard.
Once an authoritarian becomes
entrenched in power
in order for an opposition
candidate to win
Erdogan controlled the press.
He packed his
the supreme election
committee with his appointees.
He's imprisoned opposition membe
and he's been in power either
as prime minister president sinc
So that's 20 plus years of learn
how to manipulate the system.
The other reason I think text he
your point about inflation, the
The reality is identity
in this election
mattered more than pocketbook is
Some of the worst hit
areas of the earth
of the recent earthquake,
which claimed over
50,000 lives in Syria and Turkey
were among
the most avid
supporters of the president.
So he
he plays to
identity, plays to Islam,
he plays to the nation to nation
and he tries to paint Turkey
as a victim,
a victim of LGBTQ,
a victim of Western imperialist
friends, namely
the United States, close friends
And he's tried to link his oppon
and the nation
alliance to the six parties
that he formed to Kurdish terror
So it's identity on one hand.
And it's just being smart,
authoritarian on the other.
So this and cautionary tale, fra
for all of us
is is
Turkey's proximity
another way in
which Erdogan is able to kind of
power in Turkey's neighbors
include Iran, Iraq, Russia and E
and that he's had,
what, two decades
experience leading that country
is that also
how he kind of leveraged a win?
You know, I think you're right h
Geography in many respects
for a nation is destiny.
And Turkey's straddles east and
On one hand, it's a member of NA
even while Erdogan must, for eco
and political reasons, maintain
a very close ties to to Vladimir
So, yeah,
I think he has a very
problematic relationship
with the United States,
even though he's a member of NAT
other than Ukraine,
probably the most powerful milit
in the alliance.
So, yeah,
he's traded
on his foreign policy Expertize
and his capacity
to play any number of different
Very good
relationship these days with the
as a way to endear himself
to the Americans.
So, yeah, he's he's cagey and he
good at keeping his secret.
So good relationship with
Israelis,
but not such a great relationshi
with the Biden administration.
Now, what
Well, that's a very good questio
And then we'll see
what the next five years brings.
But I think he wants to improve
with Washington.
The Russians sold him
a very sophisticated air defense
which caused the Biden administr
to move forward to suspend his p
Turkey's participation
in the F-35 program.
But I think he does
want to mend relations with Wash
Now, what what price
he's going to have to pay to do
is is unclear.
But Turkey is a player
and Erdogan, as I mentioned,
has proven remarkably adept,
even though this election
really did challenge his power b
Turkey's still a very divided na
And at the head,
it's it's
a man
who's determined to maintain
its authoritarian character
and maintain its relevance in th
and maintain his personal rule.
And it is the cult of personalit
Fred, that I think helped him
win this latest round.
All right.
Aaron David Miller,
great to see you this weekend.
Thank you so much.
Bernd Aliriza is a senior associ
with the Center
for Strategic and International
Thank you
both for continuing to be with u
what is this
special coverage
of the presidential elections as
now and reflect
on what has happened in Turkey
and of course, what happens in T
doesn't stay in Turkey.
But your your thoughts at this p
One important point
before
speculating about what will happ
in the future is in the immediat
it looks like Mr.
Erdogan is going to be making a
from the presidential palace, ra
from the party headquarters.
And that's
symbolically important because,
you know,
two weeks ago
he was a candidate of the AKP.
Now he's the reelected president
So I think that's going to be
an even more significant speech
from there
than it would have been
if he had done it from the party
headquarters. My thoughts look
Mr.
Erdogan is the best politician
Turkey has ever seen
and will probably ever see.
I exclude Kemal Ataturk
because he was not a politician
who was the founder of the of th
But he's been dominating Turkish
like a colossus.
And his longevity is is remarkab
You know,
two decades
he's gone into his third decade.
Has he been successful in in
every aspect of statecraft?
By no means. No.
He has not been
Economy is going through
a very difficult period.
Foreign policy,
I mean, when you're talking
about the cooperation
with the neighboring countries.
But that's largely
because of the overreach
before that actually created pro
with those states.
And so he's retreated
to a position
where he's actually seeking
a rapprochement to go back to wh
in essence, where Turkey was wit
with those countries.
And there are definite limits
on on some aspects of the rappro
like with Syria.
The Syrian government has made v
that it will not proceed
to the kind of rapprochement
that started on once until
and unless Turkish troops are wi
And that clearly is not on.
And there's the question of the
which dominated the discussion d
past week or so.
Largely because Mr.
Costello was pushing it.
Where do you send them to?
I mean, the Syrian refugees,
clearly, Assad doesn't want them
They don't want to go back
you know, to themselves, to a co
dominated by Assad.
So that issue is not going to go
What's going to be his legacy?
I think more and more,
we and more importantly, Mr.
Outgoing himself
will be thinking about his legac
Now, he certainly established,
you know, Turkey as an perhaps a
tolerant country towards those
who are religious.
It was not the case before
under the secular establishment.
And that's a major factor in why
in the heartland, in Anatolia an
you know,
in the poorer parts of Istanbul,
and other cities, people still l
And despite all the problems
that he's faced.
This was the most difficult
election he faced because of
the worsening economic situation
the post-earthquake
difficulties.
And yet,
in spite of the desire for chang
that was
that which is understandable
after 20 years of of the AKP.
He was able to to win.
Now what does he do with his vic
I don't think there's not going
there's not going to be much mag
I think he's going to, you know,
continue as before
because he will feel vindicated.
But his immediate problem is goi
the economy.
There's very little confidence i
economic model
on the part of potential investo
beyond Turkey's borders.
I confidently expect him to appo
Shamshak, the previous economic
perhaps as as, you know, vice pr
or the
treasury secretary, in
order to try and establish
a different environment
in which there could be investme
in Turkey,
foreign direct investment of the
that existed before.
That's going to be
at the top of his agenda.
Foreign affairs,
of course,
will come second and third,
and although nobody will talk ab
within the AKP, is,
you know,
what happens to him and through
after he knows that
maybe five years from now,
it maybe even more than that.
But certainly
I think
he himself will be thinking abou
although very few people will ta