now it's been five years since russia
entered the war in syria in support of
president bashar al-assad
tipping the balance in favor of the
regime assad forces assisted by russia
and iran now control
most of the country kurdish forces still
hold the northeast but have signed a
deal with assad
idlib in the northwest is the last
remaining province under rebel control
with turkey's support asia a ceasefire
for idlib came into
effect in march of this year but
government and russian air strikes are
increasing again
and many in idlib fear a decisive battle
for the province
could start soon dw's burgetta shulker
reports
even when he's making tea plane spotter
abu al-zain's focus is on the job
not to miss a single military plane
taking off from the bases
controlled by the assad regime
the 41 year old has set up a mini
listening station to follow
syrian and russian radio communications
at a secret location
for security reasons along with other
volunteers he monitors all air traffic
over heathcliff
around the
we clock listen in to the pilot's radio
communications
and find out his destination so we know
where the bombs might fall
i do this work for civilians if we can
warn them we can save lives
as soon as he spots anything about zane
warns local civilians
hospitals and first responders using
radio and other networks
he says the number of air raids on etlip
has risen significantly in recent weeks
although the ceasefire agreement is
still in effect
my biggest fear is that the russian air
force will bomb idlib city
because it is so densely populated
in recent weeks the bombs sometimes more
than 20 a day
have mainly targeted less populated
areas
but there's growing concern that assad
and his forces are set to launch
in new offensive also targeting
hospitals and schools
in a similar way to the beginning of the
year when attacks flattened the small
town
of kaffernuran
many families have since returned home
but khaleda
khaled from the local council has no
idea how they'll survive the coming
winter
water supplies hospitals electricity
generators have all been destroyed
and coveted 19 infections are on the
rise
we can't quarantine people to protect
them from the coronavirus
they've got to work to feed their
families
we would need support from relief
agencies in our town
but no one has shown up
hundreds of thousands of people have
sought refuge in the sprawling camps of
northern italy province
here two conditions are appalling but
there's at least
some support from relief organizations
farmer ahmed suleiman is among those who
desperately need that support
a year ago his house was destroyed in an
air raid
one of his sons was killed ahmed lost
both legs
he's grateful for the tent they were
given but he's anxious about the winter
that lies ahead
i'm disabled i can't walk at all
we've got no income nothing at all
ahmed says his wife left him because she
could no longer bear
the gloom and the misery in the tent
since then
his sister has been looking after him
and the three children
they've never known anything but war
never been to school
the children are in very bad shape they
don't listen to me
especially the eldest is driving us
crazy
they just want their mother back
so what does the future hold how can
they possibly keep going
what will they do for heating when
winter sets in what about the
coronavirus
and where can they go next if assad's
forced to start a new offensive
too many questions and no answers
let's bring in daniel gerlach for more
on this he's a middle east analyst and
editor-in-chief of zenith magazine which
focuses on the region
welcome to dw let's start with the
humanitarian
situation how many people are there in
rebel-held areas of idlib
and what are conditions like for them
well the conditions have been
illustrated quite
drastically in the report and in the
reports of the relief organizations
it's very difficult to give accurate
numbers at the moment
about rebel controlled areas circuit
controlled areas
because the front line has been shifting
and
there's also different like areas that
are
under control of different rebel
organizations of course
but we have to see that there is about
maybe 2 million people that are exposed
to military operations to the threat of
an increase of bombings and of course
this is a
very difficult situation that libyans
have been living with for quite some
time
we've heard the the fears in the the
report that
um the syrian government is looking
likely to
uh try and retake um idlib um
are they actually in a position to be
able to do that
i doubt that to be honest um i think it
is absolutely possible
that we will see an increase of military
operations aerial operations
artillery shelling we've seen exchanges
in the last couple of days
um also rebels
targeting regime held areas and regime
troops
but it would be quite untypical for the
syrian regime and the russians to try
a large ground operation now that winter
is approaching
also in light of the pandemic that is
savagely
savagely going after syrians all across
the country of course
syrians are exposed to the coronavirus
we don't have official numbers and
the regime seems to be playing that down
but it's a very very serious threat in
syria at the moment so i doubt that
there would be a major ground operation
but i think there is another rather
cynical and geopolitical aspect to it
um if russia should decide to increase
its pressure to start
a bombing campaign over italy this would
not be so much to reestablish syrian
regime control over idlib
but to put pressure on turkey which is
now
uh of course very busy with the military
escalation the caucasus where turkey is
supporting
azerbaijan and russia supporting armenia
on the other side
and we should not forget that there's
also other conflict scenarios in libya
and the eastern mediterranean
and quite typically russia has been
using this card increasing military
pressure in syria and italy
whenever whenever it was suitable to
force turkey into some sort of a
compromise
and i think this is not so much about
reestablishing regime control over idlib
though of course this would be
president's assad's ultimate goal
and he would try to attempt this before
next year's presidential election
but uh i think what the russians have in
mind here is something very different
okay so it it obviously it's it's quite
a complicated
situation but it does sound just looking
at the russian
involvement in this conflict that russia
is
moving to its own agenda and it has its
own goals that it is looking to
achieve in the area not necessarily um
to
to buttress the syrian regime of course
yeah which could be in line with the
agenda of the syrian regime the
uh russian foreign minister lavrov has
traveled recently with a pretty high
ranking delegation to damascus
to give us i think some reinsurance
reassurance but also to try
uh to like develop some sort of a
political
vision for the future of syria because
the russians have been now
present in syria with uh their military
firepower for five years but in fact
they haven't really
uh they have saved the syrian regime and
they have
gained leverage in the middle east but
they haven't really found a political
solution which i think
they are still interested in presenting
i think the russians
want to keep of course military control
and there's absolutely no question that
they want to
force rebel-held areas into submission
but on the other hand they see that
syria needs some sort of a solution
an authoritarian solution of course at
russian gusto but
it there needs to be political progress
in light of the upcoming presidential
election and so
um the russians are engaged and tried to
involve the united nations they
it was their idea to bring together some
sort of a constitutional committee
with syrians from regime held areas and
from the opposition
to create some compromise and and and
find some sort of a
perspective and they haven't been very
successful with this so far
so i think russia will remain involved
militarily and politically
but sometimes for very different goals
good talking to you it's very clear as
ever daniel gerlach from
zenith magazine thank you
you