Hey folks, Dan Frio here.
I wanna go off script a little bit today.
What I want to talk about today are those that are sitting on the
sidelines just don't know what to do.
You truly don't know what to do.
You're like I'm watching my rent just get thrown away.
My rent payments are going up year after year might be in the tune of 10%.
But on the flip side, the housing market houses are the highest
they've ever been in history.
Mortgage rates are at a four decade high.
So I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Let me maybe help you analyze just some things.
Okay.
So let's dig into what the housing market's doing, and then
I'll give you my true feedback.
And then let's go over to where mortgage rates are.
You might get surprised there with what's going on in the market,
since all the headline news.
And we know the federal reserve is out and they're raising rates.
And they're out there to really crush the housing market, but is it working
so let's loop all this together to maybe make your decision maybe a little easier
or at least put some thought into your mind saying never looked at it that way.
So let's get to it.
The per first piece of the puzzle is housing markets are crashing
or they're going to crash.
And we've now heard that for about a year and a half.
So will it eventually come true?
Yeah, houses at one point in history will go down when that is.
I don't know, but it doesn't look anytime soon because of a lot of factors in
there and I'm not gonna get into it.
You guys have your own conspiracy theories, or you look
at the facts, but let's just go in and dive into the numbers.
Just a little bit of core logic just came out and said prices from June of 2021
to June of 2022 are up 18.3%.
Okay.
So let's dig into it a little bit further just to say, what are they doing recently?
You go down through here and it continues to tell us that
housing prices continue to go up
and up if you like it or not, they are starting to cool down a little bit.
You don't have the robust, one, two, 3% a month.
It's now getting to the point it's down through here.
Look a month over month.
It's up 0.6% getting a little bit normal, but still not there.
Okay, but it's coming back.
This doesn't say negative.
Okay.
It's coming back quite a bit.
So until this gets to minus 20, I'm not gonna worry about housing prices
because I still think there's a big fuel for housing and there's limited supply.
And again, you guys have your own theories on that.
The next piece of the puzzle is what's going on with mortgage
rates, cuz that's the one piece of this puzzle that really puts these
payments out of outta whack for you.
Let's get into the dynamics of everything and what's truly
going on with mortgage rates.
The stock market's not doing well today, one of the biggest reasons
is Pelosi's going to Taiwan and it's causing Europe or catastrophic news
and interruptions throughout the whole world.
Because people are like, okay, we know there's a Russian-Ukraine conflict.
We know China is now, teetering on the brink of Taiwan.
But because of the uncertainties in the market, you're starting to
see a lot of people moving their investments into a risk off position.
Okay.
So let me explain this to you for a little bit, before you start really
bashing me on the politic piece of this is what's happening around
the world is there's confusion.
There are interruptions, there are chaos, there are concerns.
So people aren't feeling as good about investing in companies.
Okay.
When you invest in companies normally are investing in their stocks.
All right.
So because of everything that's going on with the world right now,
especially current situations, a lot of investors are saying, I'm just
gonna come up and risk off right now.
So what are they exactly are they doing well?
They're selling stocks and they're putting money into the safest places.
They can think of one, what country would be the safest.
The US.
Okay.
The next piece of the puzzle is where is a solid place.
I can put my money with a with a return that I'm not gonna get clobbered.
I'm not gonna lose 50% of my investments.
The bond markets.
Then when you dissect the bond markets, you have corporate bonds, treasuries,
and mortgage backed securities.
So this isn't an economic test.
I'm just explaining to you guys where people are moving their
money and why what's happening with mortgage rates or what's happening.
Okay.
So a lot of people are electing right now because the treasury
yields aren't that great.
And they know they're coming down well, they're just deciding to
buy mortgage-backed securities.
Okay.
What's happening there is they're driving up the prices of mortgage
backed securities because the demand and the yields or the mortgage rates
are dropping, what did you realize since June 13th mortgage rates in almost
every category is over 1% lower today.
Than where we were just a couple weeks ago. Again, it was June
13th, so that's what's happening.
So I got a homework assignment for you.
One if you've been on the fence and you're like, I don't know if it's a good time or
not, but let me stick my toe in the water.
What I need you to do is call us and I'll have all my information
down below, and it's posted all over this and I'll give it to you at
the end, just to kick the tires to see
where are the numbers look like?
Or what do the numbers look like in regards to the price or the
value of the property that you would really like to get into.
Okay.
That's number one, the biggest piece of this puzzle for those out
there that are already in contract.
If you're building a house.
Or buying a house you've probably called in a lender.
And actually at this point said, okay I know rates are just keep going up and up.
I'm gonna lock in.
If you go back to that lender, here's, what's gonna happen.
They're gonna tell you, we can't do anything about it.
You are locked in, you can maybe pay a fee.
You can buy it down to where market rates are, but it might cost you five, $10,000.
So now, what do you do?
The best idea I can give you is email me.
Okay.
What I can do is I can show you what mortgage rates look
like for your scenario, your exact scenario today, right?
When you email me.
So all I need you to do is email me.
What's called your loan estimate.
Okay. The loan estimate is a form.
That your Mortgage's lender has to send you out and they have to legally
send this out to you within three business days of pulling your credit.
And it's gonna tell you a bunch of stuff.
It's gonna tell you your property, address the value of the property.
Then it's gonna go over to the loan amount.
It's gonna give us the rate and then it's gonna give us all the fees.
One big piece of this is gonna also tell us if it's locked in or.
Okay.
So that's what I want you to send me.
But the one piece of the puzzle that I didn't mention in there is your
credit score because your credit score is not a part of the loan estimate.
So if you would email me your loan estimate, but in there,
what I need from you is let me know what kind of property it is.
Is it a single family, a duplex, a condo, whatever it is.
And then what is your credit score?
Okay.
Just gimme within the hour, I'll send you back a customized quote
for exactly what you're you can.
Right now, today, it only takes us a matter of maybe an hour
to get your application in.
Get you locked in.
If we can come back and give you a much better terms than what you have.
Okay.
So that's my analysis for today for those out there that are sitting
on the fence saying, okay, I, I would love to buy, but I just can't.
Maybe this is a little reprieve in the market for you.
And also another good caveat in all this is you don't have the bidding wars out
there that you've had in the last year or two.
Normal,
I'm talking to realtors every day.
And what they're saying is instead of giving 30, 40, 50 bids on a property today
within 24 hours, we're getting two or three within two or three or maybe a week.
So that's now starting to put FOMO on the side of the seller because they're
looking to get out at a market high.
So based on all this information, what I want to caption on right
now is where are mortgage rates?
So let's get over to it.
The first thing we watch on.
Is the MBS market.
What the MBS market tells me.
It's basically the bond that trades on wall street that's yield is the
biggest component of your mortgage rate.
So let me explain how this works.
This is the mortgage backed securities market.
This is the price of that bond that sells out there.
So what happens is mortgage lenders back package up all these mortgages
into a bond and they offer it on Wallstreet.
And here it is when this price right here, when this price
goes down, mortgage rates go up.
If you see down at the bottom, you can see within the last couple weeks we hit
a bottom and we've really spiked up fast.
Thus, we now have rates 1% lower than where we were.
Okay.
So there's a nice, this isn't a good day today.
But if you see down through here, we've had an exceptional couple weeks.
So now let's break down to where mortgage rates are.
Okay.
So what I do is I show this every day, this is what mortgage news
daily posts on a daily basis.
This is no particular person's rate for an individual lender.
Basically,
here's what happens is mortgage news daily sends out a survey
to lenders all over the.
And it says this.
If you're looking to buy a $500,000 property and putting 20% down with
a 740 credit score, and it's a single family home, that's going
to be your primary residency.
What would the rate be?
And lenders send in their information on the top six products and here they are.
So if we go through this and here's what it shows the 30-year fixed the
15-year fixed, 30-year jumbo, the ARM,
FHA and VA.
Okay.
So we're gonna focus in on right here, but I'll focus in on some others, but if you
look right here, you can see the 30-year fixed-rate today in this scenario is 5.05.
It's down eight basis points are 0.08 from where we were yesterday, but the
intriguing pieces here, the 52 week high, which is, was on June 13th, 2022 was 6.2.
Today's rate 5.05.
So we're over one and a quarter percent lower today than where
we were just a month ago.
And you can go all the way across the board here other
than the arms aren't moving.
They're actually going up in some cases, look, the 52
fit five and a half.
we are currently at 52.
Why would you take a 5.20% when you get 5.05% on a 30-year fixed?
So these are where rates are.
And I wanna show you the difference on where we were just two, three
weeks ago versus where we are now.
My name is Dan Frio.
I do this report every day.
If you'd like to find out more about me and my team or what we might be
able to offer you guys, all I need you to do is go to our website.
It's TheRateUpdate.com.
It's pretty simple.
We, you can chat with us like Allen's online right now, so
you can ask him any questions.
If I'm on there at least say hi, just come on in and say "hi"
if you see my name, if you wanna reach out in other ways
to us, you can give us a call.
All that information is up here somewhere, and you can even
give us an set a Calendarly event
What happens is you click that calendar, the event, you schedule a
time, and then we'll make sure that we're there for you to answer any
questions, either by phone or by zoom.
We'd love meet you guys in person.
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Thanks for watching guys.
I will be on today.
Live at two o'clock central standard time.
We're gonna talk about adjustable mortgages versus fixed rate mortgages.
And I'm here also to answer all the questions that you're gonna have,
and I'll do that live at two o'clock central standard time.
So thanks for watching.
God bless.
I'll see you then.
Bye-bye.