One of Oberyn Martell’s bastards is currently in Oldtown going by the name Alleras, which
is an anagram of her true name, Sarella. For similar reasons, fans have wondered if Jaqen
H’ghar is actually Rhaegar since Jaqen’s surname sort of resembles the name Rhaegar.
There are reasons to believe that this is not true, but that is a topic for another
time. But what about Mance Rayder? If you were to
write out Rayder by hand and spin just one letter around, Mance’s name becomes Mance
Rayger. Or House Rayger. That may sound silly, but there are other clues to suggest that
Mance Rayder is Rhaegar Targaryen as well as plenty of evidence against the theory.
Let’s look at it all and figure it out. First, let’s review Mance’s backstory.
Mance Rayder was a brother of the Watch. One day on a ranging, they brought down a fine
big elk and were skinning it when the smell of blood drew a shadow cat out of its lair.
Mance drove it off, but not before it shredded his cloak, his arm, and his back. Mance Rayder
was going to bleed to death, so his fellow brothers brought him to a wildling village
where an old wise-woman was known to do some healing. The old wise-woman was dead, but
her daughter saw to Mance. She cleaned his wounds, sewed him up, and fed him porridge
and potions until he was strong enough to rise again. She also sewed up his night’s
watch cloak with some scarlet silk from Asshai. Mance then went back to the Shadow Tower where
he was given a new wool cloak. Black and black, trimmed with black, to go with his black breeches
and black boots, his black doublet and black mail.
So the next morning, Mance left to go to a place where a kiss was not a crime, and a
man could wear any cloak he chose. So that’s Mance’s backstory, according
to himself. And it’s also the first clue. The black cloak sewn up with scarlet red silk
may be a nod to the Targaryen colors: red and black.
Mance Rayder and Rhaegar Targaryen were both beloved leaders and formidable fighters.
Mance and Rhaegar both loved music. And to go even further, the first song that Jon Snow
ever heard Mance sing was the dornishman’s wife. Later in the story, Mance changed the
lyrics from tasting “a dornishman’s wife” to tasting “a northman’s daughter,”
which would align with Rhaegar quote unquote stealing Lyanna.
And of course, there’s the Bael the Bard clue.
According to those south of the wall, Bael the Bard was a wildling of legend who had
kidnapped the Stark daughter. But according to those north of the wall, Bael the Bard
was a freefolk who fell in love with the Stark daughter. The Bael the Bard story of legend
is a direct nod to Rhaegar and Lyanna. And in “A Dance with Dragons,” Mance Rayder
infiltrated Winterfell as a bard going by the name Abel, which is an anagram of Bael.
So Mance Rayder is now involved in a subplot that is a direct nod to both Bael the Bard
and Rhaegar Targaryen. Therefore, it would be gnarly if Mance Rayder actually was Rhaegar.
So let’s keep going because here’s where it gets interesting.
The very first words that Mance ever said to Jon Snow were “I’m Mance Rayder and
you are Ned Stark’s bastard, the Snow of Winterfell.” Mance knew who Jon was because
he had already seen Jon twice at Winterfell. The first time that Mance saw Jon was when
he was still a brother of the Watch. Mance was one of a dozen riding escort to old Lord
Commander Qorgyle when he went down to see Lord Eddard at Winterfell. During that trip,
Mance caught Jon and Rob building a mountain of snow above the gate so as to dump it on
one of Winterfell’s guards: Fat Tom. Mance Rayder swore to Jon and Rob that he would
not tell on them. So it begs the question: did Mance Rayder go down to Winterfell and
did he specifically find young Jon Snow so as to see how his biological son was doing?
If so, that’s pretty cute. The second time that Mance saw Jon was when
King Robert came up to Winterfell to summon Ned Stark as his Hand. This time, Mance Rayder
was no longer a brother of the Watch. But First Ranger Benjen Stark did not know Mance
Rayder by sight, and Mance did not think that Lord Eddard would remember a young crow he’d
met briefly years before. So Mance scaled the wall and joined King Robert’s slow-moving
procession a day south of Winterfell. Mance told Jon that he had wanted to see this
Robert with his own eyes, king to king, and get the measure of Benjen as well as since
Benjen was the bane of the freefolk. So it begs the question: did Mance Rayder eye up
Robert partially because of their past? Because of their 1 on 1 fight at the Trident? Because
Robert usurped the throne? Maybe. That would be pretty awesome.
But now it’s time to layer in the evidence against this theory.
According to Queen Selyse, Mance Rayder was born of some common woman and fathered by
a black brother. That aligns with what Qhorin halfhand said. Mance was wildling born, taken
as a child when some raiders were put to the sword. Similarly, Tormund told Jon that Mance
was raised a crow. And Mance told Jon that he was lowborn. Mance also told Jon that he
was a crow before Jon was even born. So if any of that is true, then Mance Rayder is
not Rhaegar Targaryen. Over the course of the story, Mance Rayder
gave permission to both Styr and Varamyr to kill Jon Snow if they needed to, which doesn’t
seem like something that Rhaegar would ever say to someone about his biological son, especially
if he believed his third child to be part of The Prince Who Was Promised Prophecy.
And last but not least, the biggest issue with this theory is Mance Rayder’s appearance.
Mance was of middling height, slender, sharp-faced, with shrewd brown eyes and long brown hair
that had gone mostly to grey. In contrast, Rhaegar had silvery hair and his eyes were
deep purple. So the only way that Mance Rayder could be Rhaegar Targaryen was if he was using
glamor magic. But based off of Mance’s interactions with Melisandre in her only rolling third-person
limited chapter, that was the first time that Mance Rayder had ever seen glamor magic.
And on top of all that, Dany had a vision of Rhaegar dying with a woman’s name on
his lips, presumably, Lyanna Stark’s name. A young Ned Stark saw Rhaegar dead in the
stream. And offline, George R.R. Martin has said that Rhaegar was cremated as is traditional
for fallen Targaryens. So at the end of the day, the explicit reason
that Mance Rayder changed the lyrics from dornishman’s wife to northman’s daughter
was because he was attempting to save a girl whom he believed to be Arya Stark: a northman’s
daughter. And the implicit reason for that lyrical change as well as the implicit reason
for all the previously mentioned clues, especially the Bael the Bard subplot, is that George
R.R. Martin is alluding to that which has not yet been revealed in the books, namely
that Jon Snow is the Prince Who Was Promised and R + L = J.