People come, people go...
It’s a fact of life.
Dear friends, there are few places in the world in which you can appreciate the games,
the power plays, the rivalry between nations as well as you can in the Middle East.
Without a doubt, this is a region that has become one of the great chess boards of international
politics.
And...
It makes sense when you think about it, they have all the essential elements:
The Middle East is located at the crossroads of three distinct continents;
It’s the largest source of hydrocarbons in the world;
It’s an enclave through which a good deal of international trade passes,
and it’s the heartland of one of the biggest religions on the planet.
Not to mention that it’s also a huge piggy bank.
Energy, commerce, money, religion...
The Middle East has really become an international player in recent decades.
And, to top it off, we’re talking about a place that has traditionally been a hornet's
nest.
And, in recent years, this penchant for drama has only increased.
The truth is that today, you would be hard-pressed to find a more conflictive place in the world.
And no, I’m not exaggerating.
Take a look at the historic conflict between Israel and Palestine, in recent years we could
add the war in Syria and the war in Yemen to the list.
And let’s not forget the chaos that the Islamic State caused when its leader Abu Bakr
Al Baghdadi declared the restoration of the Caliphate and invaded much of Iraq and Syria.
But it doesn't end there.
In addition, the Gulf Cooperation Council has been fractured by the growing conflict
between Qatar against the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
A conflict that has ended in the rupture of almost all relations between the countries
and a savage blockade.
Then, there’s the Iran cold war, Iraqi Kurdistan trying to proclaim its self-determination
and Erdogan's Turkey facing off against NATO and invading Syria.
In other words, there are conflicts galore.
Of all sizes and colors.
If you want a fight, you know where to find it.
However, all this chaos is hiding a very important change, which has slowly begun in the Middle
East.
You see, in recent decades the great American Empire had a very strong hand in controlling
the region, but now, silently, and without attracting attention, things are beginning
to shift.
And all because another empire is on the scene.
Now both empires are fighting for control of the Middle East using very different strategies.
Listen up.
(THE ARRIVAL OF THE EASTERN EMPIRE)
In 2016, the Chinese government published the “Arab Policy Paper”, its first political
strategy document for the Middle East.
Here on VISUALPOLITIK we’ve been telling you for a long time, how the Chinese government
is slowly unfurling its tentacles across the entire planet.
But we’ve also told you that the growth of the Chinese economy is slowing down, which
has forced China to curb its investments abroad.
This has happened everywhere in the world except for one place: The Middle East.
And there’s a very good reason for this.
Right here on YOUTUBE, you can find very interesting documentaries, such as how Nazi Germany was
forced to invest huge amounts of resources to produce synthetic oil from coal.
And right there was Germany’s Achilles heel: the lack of fuel.
Without energy there can be no power or prosperity.
And in a way, that's a modern problem too.
China is the second biggest consumer of oil, just behind the United States.
The difference is that China, unlike the US – or even Russia – has increasingly had
to import more and more oil to meet its needs.
(CHART)
To give you an idea, today, half of all the oil that China consumes comes from the Middle
East.
(CHART)
And it's not just oil.
The exact same thing happens with natural gas.
In 2019, China will become the world's largest natural gas importer across the globe.
China accounts for a third of the world's natural gas demand.
And things are expected to become even worse in the future.
You see, the Chinese economy is an economy that has been built on coal.
Want to hear a curious fact?
Since 2011, China consumes more coal than all other countries in the world put together.
The problem, as you all know, is that coal is a tremendously polluting source.
And this not only impacts climate change, but also the quality of life and health in
Chinese cities.
Some days these cities literally seem to have been built inside a fireplace.
That’s precisely why the government is pushing to replace this energy source with cleaner
alternatives: renewable energies, nuclear energy, and natural gas.
In other words, China's energy dependence is and will be one of this country’s biggest
weaknesses.
So, you can already see how important it is for the Chinese government to control and
guarantee its oil and natural gas sources.
If supply to these resources were impeded, all the power and prosperity of the Asian
giant would collapse.
When the Chinese government debates national security, they have to talk about energy.
And one other very important detail.
China isn’t the only asian nation that depends on energy supplies.
Without delving too deep, two of its neighbors and great rivals have even higher dependence
levels.
In Japan’s case, their dependence on Middle Eastern oil exceeds 90% of its consumption
and in India’s case, 60%.
Let me explain this in another way.
Controlling hydrocarbon sources can not only be useful to China from the security of supply
point of view, but also as a geopolitical instrument.
And of course, when all this depends largely on a region riddled with so many problems,
well... let's just say that Beijing understood it was high time to get a foothold in the
Middle East.
Even more so if we consider that the country with the most influence over this region right
now is its biggest rival: The United States.
(CHART)
But that’s not the only reason.
There’s another reason that explains China’s growing interest in the petro-monarchies region:
ensuring the safety of their trade routes.
As you all know, the Chinese economy is very focused on exports.
Well, a substantial part of all Chinese trade passes directly through the Middle East and,
in order for trade to flow, China depends on both the ports and the so-called choke
points in the area.
These are critical points in many supply chains and, if a rival such as the United States,
were able to close them, it would interrupt most of China’s trade, both inbound and
outbound.
We’re talking about places such as the Suez Canal, the Mandeb Strait or Hormuz Strait.
And keep in mind that these are waters that are full of American navy ships.
Right now, this scenario doesn’t seem likely, but it’s a risk that the Chinese authorities
are already considering.
For these two reasons, the Middle East has become a level one priority for the Chinese
government.
But at this point, the question that pops up is, how does the Chinese government want
to go about this, what is the Chinese government doing to expand its influence in this region?
Any ideas?
Listen up.
(CHINA’S NEW POWER PATHS)
In the field of international politics, the strategy that the Chinese follow to achieve
their objectives is different from what we’re used to.
You see, China doesn’t want to gain control in the Middle East by using its army, instead
it wants to use a very different mechanism.
It’s nothing new, they’ve been doing it all over the world.
The Asian giant wants to create a culture of economic interdependence, one so strong
that it can give China enormous influence among the region’s countries.
An interdependence that guarantees full access to and, in some ways, control of all the oil
and natural gas they need.
This explains why China has positioned itself as the largest investor in the region since
2017, that’s even above the United States itself.
One out of every three euros that are invested in the Middle East come from Chinese money.
It’s the only region in which Chinese foreign investment continues to grow steadily.
For example, in 2016 the Chinese company Sinopec and the Saudi company Aramco agreed to jointly
build a refinery worth more than 10 billion dollars in Saudi Arabia.
In Kuwait, Sinopec also participated in the construction of the largest refinery in the
world, a project worth more than 13 billion dollars.
And in Oman…
Quick question, have you ever heard of Duqm?
Well, keep this name in mind, because it’s likely to become very well known soon.
Duqm is a new city and a new port that is shooting up in a part of Oman where there
was hardly anything just five years ago.
Today it’s one of the largest special economic zones in the entire Middle East.
And it’s here that Chinese companies are investing thousands and billions of dollars.
Refineries, ports, airports, hotels, offices, business campuses...
We’re talking about a completely new industrial city located at the gates of the Hormuz Strait.
That is, Chinese shipping companies can operate without having to enter the Persian Gulf.
And it’s not only a haven for shipping companies.
Among the billion-dollar Chinese investments, there are factories of all kinds.
These are only three examples of the huge investments China is pouring into this area
of ​​the world.
Back in 2008, the region barely received 1% of all the money that China invested globally,
today there is Chinese money all over the Middle East.
But the Chinese don’t only invest their money, they also have no problem selling all
kinds of technology to these countries, especially military technology.
For example, many of the military drones and ballistic missiles that are operated in the
region are Chinese-made.
And all this comes at precisely the same time as the other great power, the American Empire,
is radically changing its strategy for the Middle East.
Listen up.
(THE ESCAPE ROUTE)
After investing hundreds of billions of dollars and paying a huge price in human lives, the
United States seems to be done with the Middle East.
Especially now that they’re about to achieve full energy independence.
Between 2004 and 2007 the United States imported about 12 million barrels per day but this
figure had decreased to just over 2 million by 2017.
That is, oil imports have decreased by 80%.
What’s more, according to the International Energy Agency, it’ll only be a matter of
a few years until the United States becomes a net exporter of oil and natural gas.
It’s set to become quite the competitor for the Gulf petro-monarchies.
(CHART)
Well, the situation is that the Obama Administration had already announced its intention to decrease
the United States’ presence in the Middle East, and to prioritize the Asia Pacific region.
Meanwhile, one of Donald Trump’s great promises ran along the same lines.
(AUDIO: Does the USA want to be the Policeman of the Middle East, getting NOTHING but spending
precious lives and trillions of dollars protecting others who, in almost all cases, do not appreciate
what we are doing?
Do we want to be there forever?
Time for others to finally fight.
DONALD TRUMP) https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1075721703421042688
To achieve this, the Trump Administration has a plan: to delegate power, to leave the
responsibility in the hands of two close allies, a military leader and a political leader.
I’m talking about Israel and Saudi Arabia.
That explains why, since Trump arrived at the White House, his relations with Ryad and
Jerusalem have become very, very good.
Saudi Arabia has been willing to allow it and to forgive everything.
A blockade against the country where the United States has its largest military base in the
region?
Go ahead.
(AUDIO: Donald Trump tweets support for blockade imposed on Qatar.
The Guardian)
Congress wants to veto the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia so they won’t use them in
the Yemen War?
None of that.
(AUDIO: Donald Trump vetoes bills prohibiting arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
The Guardian)
The Saudi authorities killed a journalist who worked for the Washington Post...
Ummm alright let's just look the other way.
(AUDIO: Trump defends Saudi Arabia ties despite Khashoggi murder.
BBC)
Ryad is asking you to take care of their air defense?
No problem!
(AUDIO: US to send more forces to Saudi Arabia despite Trump’s pledge to reduce Middle
East presence.
CNBC)
But the question is, why?
Because it would be a great political success for Trump to get out of the Middle East and
to foster a peace agreement between Israel and Palestine... which all American presidents
since Jimmy Carter, have tried to do.
But wait a minute, what does Palestine have to do with all this?
Well, it looks like the Trump Administration wants to present a peace agreement before
the next elections.
A peace agreement that, for the first time, could be backed by the neighbouring Arab countries,
which would force the Palestinian Authorities to accept it.
That, at least, is Trump’s idea.
Anyway, as you can see, some want to hop off and others want to hop on.
Two different models to control one of the most strategically important regions on the
planet.
The questions remaining are:
Will Trump's model to control the Middle East work?
Or will we end up being locked out of an emerging Chinese domain?
Will all these actions from the big powers be good for the region’s stability or will
they only add fuel to the fire of old conflicts?
Leave your answer in the comments.
So I really hope you enjoyed this video, please hit like if you did, and don’t forget to
subscribe for brand new videos.
Don’t forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast - they provided
the vocals in this episode that were not mine.
Also, this channel is possible because of Patreon, and our patrons on that platform.
Please consider joining them and supporting our mission of providing independent political
coverage.
And as always, I’ll see you in the next video.