GREAT TO SEE YOU AGAIN.
LET'S TAKE A STEP BACK, TAKE A
LOOK AT WHERE YOU THINK THE
PRESIDENT IS NOW.
WHAT'S HIS STANDING FOR
RE-ELECTION?
>> THERE'S TWO TYPES OF MODELS
OUT THERE, ONE IS AN ECONOMIC
MODEL OR SERIES OF ECONOMIC
MODELS, ALL WHICH PREDICT HE'LL
BE REELECTED.
THE OTHER ARE THE POLITICAL
MODELS, BASED MORE ON POLLING
AND SOME OTHER FACTORS, ALL
WHICH PREDICT HE WILL LOSE.
SO I THINK RIGHT NOW IT'S KIND
OF TOO EARLY TO TELL.
CERTAINLY HIS RANKINGS THAT HE
GETS ON THE ECONOMY FROM A
VARIETY OF DIFFERENT VOTER
GROUPS, MAJORITY OF AMERICANS IS
VERY, VERY POSITIVE.
IF HE KEEPS THE FOCUS ON THE
ECONOMY.
PAUL: THIS IS THE FASCINATING
THING.
YOU LOOK AT THE DISCONNECT
BETWEEN HIS APPROVAL RATING ON
THE ECONOMY, WHICH IS ABOVE 50%,
IN NEARLY EVERY SURVEY NOW AND
YOU LOOK AT HIS OVERALL APPROVAL
RATING AND THE AVERAGE POLLS I
SEE, IT'S 44%, SOME 43, A LITTLE
LOWER.
HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THAT
DISCONNECT?
>> WELL, THE THING TO ALSO LOOK
AT IS FAVORABILITY INDEX WHICH
IS HIS FAVORABLE, UNFAVORABLE
RATING, WHICH QUITE FRANKLY HAS
BEEN THAT 55% UNFAVORABLE SINCE
THE DAY HE ANNOUNCED.
IT WAS A 55% THE DAY HE WAS
ELECTED, 55% THE DAY HE WAS
SWORN IN AND 55% TODAY.
WHAT YOU GET IS THERE IS A GROUP
OF VOTERS, SOME OF WHICH LIKE
WHAT HE'S DOING POLICY-WISE,
PARTICULARLY ON THE ECONOMIC,
BUT DON'T LIKE HIS PERSONA AND
THEY PUT A PRIORITY ON THAT.
AND THERE'S SOME THAT PUT A
PRIORITY -- THEY DON'T LIKE HIS
PERSONA BUT THEY LIKE WHAT HE'S
DOING POLICY-WISE AND THEY PUT A
PRIORITY THERE AND THAT'S WHERE
YOU GET THE SPLIT.
PAUL: SO WHAT THAT SUGGESTS IS
THAT THE ECONOMY IS NOT GOING TO
BE THE DOMINANT ISSUE IN THE
ELECTION AND EVEN IF IT
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE STRONG,
SOME OF THE PRESIDENT'S
CHARACTER ISSUES ARE GOING TO
COME TO THE FORE.
>> WELL, THAT CERTAINLY WOULD BE
THE CASE IF HE DOESN'T FOCUS ON
THE ECONOMY BUT THE MORE HE
FOCUSES ON THE ECONOMY AND KIND
OF MOVES AWAY FROM THE KIND OF
TWEETS OF THE DAY AND SOME OF
THE THINGS HE DOES ON OTHER
ISSUES, YOU KNOW, HE'S ALWAYS
SHOWN AN INTEREST IN KEEPING HIS
BASE STRONG WHICH IS IMPORTANT.
NOT THE REPUBLICAN BASE BUT THE
TRUMP BASE WHICH RUNS ABOUT 32,
33%.
THAT WAS HIS ADVANTAGE IN 2016
OVER HILLARY CLINTON THAT DID
NOT HAVE INTENSITY IN HER
FAVORABLE BASE.
BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, AND
ESPECIALLY ONE OF THE NUMBERS I
LOOK AT CLOSELY IS THE GENDER
GAP, WHICH YOU GET VERY POOR
RATINGS WITH SOME OF THE KEY
GROUPS OF WOMEN, MARRIED WHITE
WOMEN, WHITE WOMEN OVERALL BUT
WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHERE THEY GIVE
HIM A RATING ON THE ECONOMY,
THEY'RE IN THE HIGH 50s, LOW
60s.
SO THEY DON'T LIKE HIS PERSONA.
THEY DO LIKE HIS POLICIES ON THE
ECONOMY.
HE NEEDS TO SHOW THAT AS THE
IMPORTANT PART, IMPORTANT FOCUS
OF HIS RACE.
PAUL: SPECIFICALLY TO YOUR
POINT, I WAS LOOKING AT THE NBC
WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL THIS
WEEK.
IT SHOWS THE PRESIDENT HAS A 20
POINT NEGATIVE RATING AMONG
COLLEGE EDUCATED WHITE WOMEN.
NOT OVERALL WOMEN.
WHITE WOMEN.
AND OF COURSE THAT GROUP WENT
AGAINST REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE
RACES IN THE SWING DISTRICTS IN
2018.
PRESIDENT HAS TO GET SOME OF
THOSE BACK, DOESN'T HE?
>> WELL, THE BIGGER CONCERN, AND
THE GENDER GAP HAS ALWAYS BEEN
MORE OF A MARRIED GAP AND A
RACIAL GAP AND SO WHEN YOU'RE
TALKING ABOUT COLLEGE EDUCATED
WOMEN WHAT YOU REALLY HAVE TO
LOOK AT IS ARE THEY MARRIED, ARE
THEY NOT MARRIED AS OPPOSED TO
-- A LOT OF THOSE IN FACT ARE
SINGLE.
WHERE WE DO SEE CONCERNED IS
MARRIED WHITE WOMEN WHERE WE
NORMALLY WIN BY 20 POINTS, WE
ONLY HAVE A 4 POINT LEAD.
WHITE WOMEN OVERALL THAT WE
USUALLY WIN BETWEEN 4 AND 8
POINTS, WE HAVE AN 8 POINT
DEFICIT.
AT LEAST IN THE NUMBERS THAT I'M
LOOKING AT.
THOSE ARE BOTH, AGAIN, THAT IF
YOU TAKE THOSE TWO GROUPS, THEY
GIVE HIM OVER A 57% APPROVAL
RATING, NOT ONLY ON THE ECONOMY
BUT ON JOBS.
AND SO IF HE KEEPS THE FOCUS ON
THAT, RATHER THAN WHERE THE
DEMOCRAT% TRYING TO TAKE THE
ECONOMY, WHICH IS EDUCATION AND
HEALTH CARE, HE WOULD DO VERY
WELL ON BRINGING THOSE WOMEN
BACK.
PAUL: THERE'S BEEN SOME STATE
POLLING AND YOU I KNOW IT'S
EARLY BUT ONE OF THE THEMES
THAT'S EMERGING AND KARL ROVE
WROTE ABOUT IT THIS WEEK, IS
SOME OF THE STATES THAT TRUMP
WON COMFORTABLY IN 2016, TEXAS,
GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA,
FLORIDA, TEXAS AND GEORGIA IN
PARTICULAR LOOK TO BE IN PLAY
THIS TIME.
DO YOU THINK THAT'S REALISTIC.
IS THAT SOMETHING TRUMP HAS TO
PAY ATTENTION TO?
>> I DON'T KNOW ABOUT TEXAS.
FLORIDA WILL CERTAINLY BE IN
PLAY.
WE HAD HIM SLIGHTLY AHEAD IN
FLORIDA AND OHIO.
WE
IN THE FINAL WEEK OF THE
CAMPAIGN, HE MOVED FORWARD TO A
LEAD IN ALL FOUR STATES AND
THAT'S WHAT BROUGHT HIM THE
PRESIDENCY.
THOSE ARE THE STATES TO REALLY
WATCH.
PAUL: SO THE PRESIDENT'S
POLLSTER SAYS, WELL, LOOK, THE
POLL% CRAZY, THEY DON'T MODEL
THE ACTUAL VOTERS WHO WILL COME
OUT.
OUR BASE IS GOING TO BE
MOBILEIZED.
AND THAT'S GOING TO BE THE KEY
TO THE RACE.
EVERY TIME I HEAR SOME CAMPAIGN
ADVISOR SAY IGNORE THE POLLS,
YOU KNOW WHAT, I MEAN, USUALLY
THAT'S -- THEY'RE JUST TRYING TO
DISTRACT FROM WHAT'S A BAD POLL
RESULT.
I MEAN, WHAT WOULD YOU WATCH IF
YOU'RE A VOTER TRYING TO MEASURE
HOW WELL THE PRESIDENT'S GOING
TO DO?
WHAT DO YOU WATCH?
>> ONE OF THE MISTAKES A LOT OF
THE PUBLIC POLLS MAKE IS THEY
TRY MODEL THE SAMPLE BASED ON
WHAT THEY THINK THE ELECTORATE
WILL BE RATHER THAN GO WIDER AND
LOOK AT INTENSITY.
WHAT WE WATCH VERY CLOSELY IS
INTENSITY.
WE SEE THE INTENSITY BEING QUITE
FRANKLY BOTH ON OUR SIDE IN THE
TRUMP BASE BUT WE SEE EQUAL
INTENSITY WITH THE DEMOCRATIC
SIDE.
THAT'S GOING TO BE THE THING TO
WATCH VERY CLOSELY.
THE OVERALL NUMBERS AT THIS
POINT ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT
PREDICTING WHAT'S GOING TO
HAPPEN.
THE MOVEMENT ON INTENSITY IS.