Welcome to trade ideas
I'm Jake Merle
Sitting down with big Jonas if Joan is trading great job you on the show for your very first real vision interview Jay
Thank you so much for having me really appreciate it since it script a week here at real vision
We'd love to get your view on Bitcoin and you know the different scenario is you see unfolding over the weeks and months to come
But before we do, so, can you please review of your background who you are and what you do at Jonas trading? Absolutely
I've been interested in stocks and trading for about a decade now
Past three years ago. I've been really focused on crypto and that's really the focus of my trading as well
I'm also a feature contributor to Bitcoin live which is a wonderful subscription-based
Educational platform where I put out content weekly with other really great like-minded traders
And I also do personalized mentoring with online with students to give them a sense of basic TA
Disciplines and of course, I'm also very active on Twitter and YouTube. So you mentioned your methodologies mostly based on technical analysis
So which indicators and tools are you looking at right now the past few months the Bitcoin has been just tremendous price action
Really ever since we broke out of our a sending triangle around
$4,000
Bitcoin is just going up and up with higher lows and higher highs
When we're in a market like this a very aggressive bull stance right now I
prefer using higher timeframe charts higher timeframe indicators whether it be
you know three-day up to a weekly chart to give me more of a bias of what the what the
options of price action can be what the more meaningful support areas are and then what are
reasonable
Achievable bull targets in this particular price action. I'm very interested in more of a longer-term
Higher timeframe charts. So what exactly are you looking at? You know which specific charts are you most interested in right now?
so with Bitcoin here
We're at a very interesting level where you know over 9,000. We've been holding that for a couple days here and
The big question is can Bitcoin really approach the $10,000 area? This was an area which stopped a
Bullish move a year ago when we got we stopped just under 10k
And ever since then we basically been in this lower lows market here. So the psychological barrier of
$10,000
just the achievement in itself and if we were able to get Bitcoin above 10k
We really have to start asking the question, you know is the bear market truly over. Is this that price level?
that will say we're basically out of the danger zone that the low is in and
we're only kind of moving up from here my
feeling on this is we can definitely break through 10k my
Biggest thing I want to see accomplished is to have a monthly close above
$10,000
we could definitely close the week out or the day out with a break of 10k but a
really meaningful
monthly candle close above
$10,000 in my opinion would kind of be that that thing that says to me, okay
Maybe we might break 10k again and go lower but the 3150 area we hit back in December of 2018
I would have a lot more confidence that that is the now new local bottom of Bitcoin
Where we may range for quite a while here as we head into the next part of the year here
We have to also understand that bitcoin is 3x basically since our 3150 area here
So without a real meaningful pullback and Bitcoin has a way of doing that, you know
We've had four or five major pull backs in bitcoins price action
70% to 90%
we've had all over a dozen, you know, 30% pull backs along the way so
These can be buying opportunities. I
Personally would not FOMO into a break of 10k but there will be opportunities if you feel you've missed the boat
To get into Bitcoin at a lower price and use that as an opportunity to do so
So in terms of the technical analysis, can you take a deeper dive for us? I know you're looking at a few different indicators
So if you could walk through the charts you brought along that'd be great. Absolutely. So I brought along a couple charts here
I'm a big fan of trying to look in pasts and see how it can translate to the future cause fractals
So basically, I'm a big
proponent of analyzing
Previous bear markets of bitcoins history and what can that tell us? So in 2014 or the end of 2013?
Bitcoin hit a thousand dollars and then for a year
It basically went from a thousand dollars to about a hundred and fifty dollars
You know, that was your big pullback there once it hit that bottom
It didn't just start on its bull run again. We had ten more months of this
Consolidation period you know 150 to 350 back to 200 until that real breakout and kind of actually happened
So I brought a few scenarios here. I'll start with the bearish one here. So in 2013 we
had this really strong pullback from
$1,000 although we upped it down to 350 dollars or so
Then we had a really nice bounce and that brought the price action about $600
now that hits the 3a to Fibonacci extension basically from top to the bottom and
Couldn't get past that and once that happened the bear market continued and actually ended up putting up lower lows
We fast forward to where we are right now in the Bitcoin price action and Bitcoin is right at once again
The three a two-bit minashi resistance if you start from our 2017 top to our current
You know bottom we have now around 3150 so very similar there. So if this area of 3a2 resistance around
$9,400 is actually as solid of resistance as what we've seen in the past
This could be our local top and we could basically be drifting down lower and lower and potentially put in that bear scenario
where we may even retest the three k's once again, I
Have a bullish scenario now. The bullish scenario basically is after the
2014-2015 bear market we had this consolidation period when we did hit our bottom it's about 10 months
Where we hovered and we actually put in just a higher low from 150 to about 170 or 180 once we hit that
170-180 area we had this incredible up thrust of bitcoins bullish price action bringing the price action all the way up to about
Five hundred dollars there and this was really the beginning of the next phase of the bull market
we could really say that I was officially over but
When it hit that point it had this vicious 40 percent pullback
now if we had a 40 percent pullback in our price action right here that kind of takes us back down to that 57 to
$5,500 area
Bitcoin back in 2015 2016 found the support in our golden pocket are about 61 to 65 percent retracement there
that golden pocket now does put us right in that fifty five fifty seven hundred dollar area and an ideal area to find
support bounce hard and then continue that bull market process
I have another cool chart where I use my VP VR
You know
Volume price visual range this basically gives us a representation of the price action within a specific
window of price history and what we see on this is we have these things called windows where we have
areas of very limited price history where Bitcoin either crashes through very quickly or
Rises up very quickly
And those are defined here by these kind of open gaps in the price the larger areas of price action
We see here is right around the 4k area
This represented the dump that basically brought Bitcoin down from 4k to almost 3k and then the big explosive
Bullish move, we had when we busted out of 4k and we broke through our a sending a triangle pattern
So we see that right now as a major area of support
between that area and
$6,400. There's a gap. There's a basically gap all through the five case where there's very limited price action in price history
This means that if the price action was to get back into that area, that's where you could fall through very quickly
So ideally you'd want to see the price get back into that area
Find that historical support and then engage higher I'll point out one more thing about this chart that you also notice
There's a decent size window. Let's call it under
$2,400 to about
$1500 and that happened with Bitcoin when it rose on its parabolic move
2016-2017
Extremely fast from 1k to basically 3 K in a matter of you know weeks or so
so I I
Keep it in the back of my head that I like to see the gaps in the V PVR get filled and there's a big
one down there
We have to acknowledge that most of the price action of this of Bitcoin most of the accumulation of price action of Bitcoin
happens sub
$1000 that's where all the big money and the smart money. We really got into Bitcoin
so there are open areas where the price action can move very freely and quickly and
I would like to see those areas get Phil to basically
Establish a stronger base of support and my last chart here is kind of a fun one how I described
Where we are in this overall market, so we have our summit Bitcoin 20k
Okay, and we have our base camp Bitcoin 31 50 and we take a fibonacci from the top to the bottom
Our first target our first camp one is the the 3s are the 236. Okay that was around
$7,000 we hit it. We did find initial resistance and then we just blasted right through that
Okay, so in my head here wow, 7k the 236 that's got to be strong support
We've been above it for several weeks now and now we're sandwiched between the 2 3 6 and the 3 a 2
if we can maintain
Support on the 2 3 6 and if we can break through the 3 a 2 which is right around ninety four hundred dollars
I have to basically put in play the chance we can go to our next Fibonacci range or resistance
Right in our golden pocket here, and that's around
$13,000 Bitcoin so a close especially a weekly close above the 3 a to putting us above
$9,400 does put that next fib resistance in play
But here's the other side of that if the 3 a 2
Continues to be very strong
resistance if we're unable to get above it at the end of this month at the end of the next few weeks here and it
really shows its strong resistance
The Bears will begin to assert that and they're going to put pressure on the market
And they're gonna try and drop the price down to challenge the 236 as support. How strong is this support? Really?
Okay
We lose the two three six support around 7k and then everything down in my opinion is open season the potential of being hit
So based on the textual analysis, you just laid out. How do you suggest?
Traders play the current environment. So I have a short-term bias that I I I
Don't want to say that Bitcoin has topped off here. Okay, because
a
Lot of people have been saying that including myself for past several weeks and Bitcoin just laughs and blows right through your your near-term
Resistances I would be very surprised though if we were able to blast through 10k in the next few weeks
Definitely possible and we've seen it happen before
But you have to realize that with that occurrence are people that loaded Bitcoin
You know on the 5 k-6 k7 it or they kind of be now taking profit because they then feel wow
This is a great run but it's got to pull back sometime and historically Bitcoin always does give you that
30 to 40 maybe even more percent pullback opportunity that you can then re-engage the market
I do have a longer-term perspective though, and that's kind of a chart I have here which is basically the road to
$100,000 Bitcoin
and a lot of this has to do with the happening which basically and you when you mind Bitcoin you get a reward and that
block reward
Basically is cut in half every four years
we're a little under a year away from our next happening the past two happenings have
Basically been in the middle of the peak to trough of the previous market cycle
Which means next May?
Should be somewhere near the middle of
the bear market to the next bull market blow off top
Which means I feel the next year is a year of
consolidation and accumulation
Where I do not expect Bitcoin to go to all-time high
20k
In the next few months or even in the next, you know
Half a year or so until we get into the 2020s and closer to the having
Entering every previous happening Bitcoin has been in an uptrend
It wasn't necessarily a massive bullish uptrend
But it was in an uptrend and as we get closer and closer to the happening the more
Confident I will feel
that the low that the bottom is
Truly in so super bullish in the long run and kind of cautious in the short run here. We'll see how it plays out
Thanks so much for joining us. Thank you for having me. Really appreciate it. So big jonas is bullish on Bitcoin
He thinks it'll had much higher in the long run. However, he's cautious in the short run and recommend staying away at current levels
He thinks there will be a better buying
Opportunity in the near future on the flip side a weekly close above 90 400 and a monthly close above
10,000 could lead to a short-term move higher to 13,000 now is big Jonas of Jonas trading and for real vision. I'm Jake Morrell
You