At the end of December, 2019, Iranian backed militias in Baghdad attacked the US embassy
in an attempt to storm it.
The embassy assault came after over a dozen separate attacks on other American and coalition
bases throughout the country, which had resulted in the death of one American contractor and
four service members.
In all likelihood, the attack on the American embassy in Baghdad was purely symbolic, and
meant to ignite a frenzy of fresh attacks against American targets in the nation.
Shortly after the attack on the US embassy, American intelligence tracked Iranian General
Qasem Soleimani as he landed in Baghdad international airport in a private plane.
There he met with a high ranking Iraqi official, Abu Madhi al-Muhandis, and the two quickly
climbed into a two car convoy.
Minutes later, a firestorm of tensions would erupt between Iran and the USA when missiles
fired from US drones destroyed the convoy - but who exactly was General Qasem Soleimani?
Why are these two nations at each other’s throat once more?
And is this situation similar to past events that have lead to massive global conflicts
including world wars?
General Qasem Soleimani is a figure well known by NATO and Israeli commanders, and much-hated
by both groups.
Soleimani got his start during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980, where he rose through the ranks
from delivering water to troops at the front to becoming a senior commander.
With a keen strategic mind, by his late twenties Soleimani was already a veteran senior military
official.
He would make a name for himself inside the Iranian revolution's new leadership not just
for his ability to command troops at the front, but for coordinating raiding parties who traveled
deep into Iraq.
Soleimani was already displaying a talent for asymmetrical warfare- the unconventional
style of warfare that makes use of terrorist, insurgent and even criminal elements to wage
a non-traditional war against a traditional military power.
His abilities as a brilliant asymmetrical tactician would soon see him in command of
the legendary Iran Quds Force- a military force that fights Iranian conflicts outside
of the nation, with the express goal of toppling Israel and removing the US and other Western
powers from the Middle East while expanding Iranian influence in the region.
Labeled a terrorist organization by the US and many other nations, Quds Force operatives
employ terrorists and criminal networks to conduct their operations, and for over two
decades Soleimani was the brains behind the Quds Force.
Under Soleimani's leadership, the Quds Force trained and equipped Hezbollah into a force
to be let loose against Israel, and launched attacks against Israel in Lebanon and from
inside Israeli territory itself.
Soleimani was also responsible for creating a vast network of militia forces across the
Middle East and unifying them in purpose, then turning them against the US and its allies-
no easy feat for a region that is plagued by conflicts that span back generations.
It was also Soleimani who bailed out the Syrian government, shipping millions of dollars of
weapons, equipment, and cash to Damascus directly.
For American military commanders though, his most heinously evil act was the thousands
of high-explosive penetrator munitions that he shipped to Iraqi militias that were then
used against American and NATO troops- these high-tech explosive booby traps were capable
of defeating heavy vehicle armor and responsible for killing hundreds, and wounding thousands
more coalition troops.
But while Soleimani has traditionally been a major American enemy, there was a time when
things weren't quite that way, and perhaps history as we know it could have been averted.
When the US began combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, it got unexpected help from
a longtime adversary.
Because the US had, and continues to have, no official diplomatic ties with Iran, secret
meetings between US officials and Iranian officials took place in Geneva, with Iranian
representatives being sent there on behalf of none other than Soleimani.
Through these meetings Soleimani expressed his support for the US invasions of Iraq and
Afghanistan, a move which no doubt shocked many in the White House.
The reasoning for Iran's support of the invasions was simple pragmatism.
Iran hated the Taliban and had been fighting covertly to limit their influence for years,
and with Shiites in Iraq being suppressed by the ruling Sunni minority, Iran loved nothing
more than to see their greatest adversary- Sunni Saddam Hussein- removed from power.
Not only was he brutally suppressing the Shiite majority, but he was after all the man responsible
for launching the deadly Iran-Iraq War.
Soleimani's cooperation was incredible in the early months of the war, with his agents
providing American military planners with targeting data for both Taliban and Iraqi
military targets.
Iranian-backed militias even aided coalition troops by capturing high value targets and
turning them over for arrest.
For the first time in decades, the US and Iran seemed to be secretly drawing closer
together, and inside of Iran there was already some calling for a reconciliation with the
US.
Then President Bush delivered his infamous Axis of Evil speech, where he named Iran as
one of the three major perpetrators of evil in the world.
In Washington, the speech was received with great applause.
In Geneva, the speech was a political disaster.
The secret meeting with Iranian officials coordinated by Soleimani immediately stopped,
as did the secret cooperation between the US and Iran against Iraqi insurgents and Taliban
forces.
Overnight, President Bush had destroyed any hope of reconciliation, and cooperation, with
Iran.
Immediately after the Axis of Evil speech, Soleimani directed his Quds Force and the
various militias he had groomed for years to begin open warfare against NATO forces.
Where before Soleimani had worked behind the scenes to aid US efforts against Al Qaeda,
Taliban, and other insurgent forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan, he now turned his efforts
to directly supplying and even training those same forces.
Soleimani weaved together a system of alliances that ran from Afghanistan all the way into
Syria and Israel's doorstep, and at his disposal was tens of thousands of jihadis militia fighters
which he turned on NATO over the course of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Perhaps Soleimani's greatest victory though came when Iraq's first national elections
took place.
While the US would claim this event as a great victory in its efforts to rebuild Iraq, the
truth is that Soleimani had completely outwitted and outmaneuvered America.
Using his vast array of contacts across the various tribal and ethnic groups.
Soleimani managed to help elect many officials that he had personally handpicked.
In the end, Iraq's new government was overwhelmingly in Soleimani's pocket, and has largely remained
so to this day.
This Iraq ace-in-the-hole that Soleimani had created for himself would pay off in spades
when he 'asked' the Iraqi government to allow Iranian aircraft to fly across its airspace
in order to deliver critical supplies to Syria's al-Assad.
Every single day transport aircraft delivered critical military and other supplies to Damascus-
when al-Assad and his government was on the ropes and the verge of defeat, Iran's influence
over Iraq managed to save the day and ensure the pro-democracy revolution in Syria would
fail.
Soleimani has been on an American hit-list for a very long time, not just for his actions
in the Middle East, but also for international efforts to attack American resources and those
of its allies.
Seeking to bring the fight to America's doorstep, Soleimani once reached out to a Mexican drug
cartel member in a bid to carry out an assassination of a Saudi official inside a Washington D.C.
restaurant.
Unknown to Soleimani though that cartel member happened to be a DEA informant, and the US
quickly put an end to the plot.
Sanctioned as a terrorist organization, the Iranian Quds Force and its commander, Qasem
Soleimani, were thus legal targets for an American airstrike, and his elimination has
no doubt severely hurt Iran's ability to operate across the Middle East.
Now though people are asking: could this lead to a major war- potentially even a world war?
Drawing a parallel to the assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand in World War I, the US
strike against Soleimani has many worried about what might happen next.
For Iran though, the options are far more limited than they were for Austria-Hungary
in World War I, mostly because Iran lacks the powerful allies that Austria-Hungary enjoyed
at turn of the 20th century Europe.
Without Germany, Austria-Hungary could never have attempted to seek revenge on the Serbian
government for the killing of Arch Duke Ferdinand, and thus snowball the series of diplomatic
catastrophes that launched World War I.
To make matters worse, Europe was already a simmering bed of potential conflict.
The Ottoman Empire was in full decline after centuries and steadily retreating out of Europe,
leaving behind territories that were quickly claimed by European powers.
A detente of sorts between Europe's major powers had spurned on an arms race, and the
smallest of matches could ignite a firestorm- as it inevitably did.
In the present day, the political situation in the Middle East is simply not similar enough
to pre-World War I Europe to threaten a full-blown global war between major powers.
Iran remains relatively isolated on the world stage, and not even Russia or China- the US's
traditional competitors- are too interested in risking the ire of the US by drawing close
to the rogue nation.
If Iran chooses to retaliate militarily against the US for the killing of Soleimani, then
it would do so completely on its own, and that would be tantamount to national suicide.
Instead, Iran will seek to attack the US and its allies covertly, using its wide array
of unconventional forces and terrorist, insurgent and criminal allies- many of which were groomed
into Iranian service by Soleimani- to attack Western interests indirectly.
What we should expect to see is a wave of terrorist attacks against American and NATO
targets in the region, along with attacks against Iran's long-time adversary and US
ally, Saudi Arabia.
The true risk of a global war doesn't come from the Middle East, as in this region of
the world the only American adversary with any influence is Russia, and even that influence
is quite limited in scope.
Russia for its part is happy to continue its strategy of slowly subverting the West by
attacking its democracies, and with President Trump giving Syria up to Turkey and Russia
by withdrawing US troops and abandoning America's longtime Kurdish allies, Russia's Putin is
more than pleased to continue challenging the US indirectly and instead simply seize
greater influence small piece by small piece.
With Syria being delivered to Russia on a silver platter, the struggling former superpower
is more than happy with restoring its ability to influence the Mediterranean via naval bases
in Syria.
Despite rhetoric from both the US and Russia, the only true risk of a major war comes from
China's violation of international agreements in the South Pacific.
Starting in the early 2000s, when China thought that the US was distracted by Iraq and Afghanistan,
the Chinese began to build up small atolls in the South China sea into full-sized islands
that could house Chinese military forces.
This was an attempt by China to secure the majority of the South China Sea and its vast
mineral, oil, and fish wealth, for itself by claiming all the waters around the artificial
islands- despite them being more than a thousand miles away from mainland China.
Soon, Chinese national oil companies had towed oil barges into waters that traditionally
belonged to Vietnam and other South Asia nations, and even built a fleet of unarmed coast guard
vessels equipped with water cannons to bully fishing boats from other nations out of the
South China sea.
China claimed that it was merely enforcing its territorial claims to the waters, and
deferred to an ancient map of Chinese territory known as the 'seven-dash-line map'.
This map was internationally unrecognized, and China's claims officially shut down in
the international court at The Hague.
Despite this, China continued its process of converting small atolls into full-fledged
islands via dredging operations, then began to base military equipment on those islands.
The US’s President Obama responded by greatly increasing America’s naval presence in the
South China Sea, and transferring naval firepower from its Atlantic fleet to its Pacific fleet.
China agreed to seize the reclamation of islands across the region, but to this day refuses
to tear down existing military structures and has actually taken steps to reinforce
those military positions.
In response to this buildup, the US has regularly sent military vessels on freedom of navigation
exercises through waters that China claims.
According to international law when a foreign military vessel moves through another nation's
waters, it must do so as expediently as possible.
Instead, the US works to make China's claims illegitimate by sending its ships on slow,
zig-zagging courses through the waters around the disputed islands.
Every time that a US naval vessel enters the disputed waters, the Chinese navy responds
and warns the American ship to leave the area- a request which is promptly ignored by the
American navy.
While international opinion is against China, and the world's support is behind the US's
freedom of navigation exercises, there is nonetheless a major risk of conflict between
the two nations during these operations.
Should a Chinese military official feel particularly aggressive one day and order a US vessel to
be fired on, the retaliation by the American navy would be swift and overwhelming, leading
to a full-blown state of war between the two nations.
Further adding to the risk of conflict between the two powers though is the situation in
Taiwan.
Having broken away from the mainland after the Communist revolution in China, Taiwan
today is an independent democratic state- although most of the world doesn't recognize
it as such out of fear of angering China.
For its part, China is determined to reunite Taiwan with the mainland- and while it claims
it will not use force to do so, the Chinese military regularly practices amphibious operations
which can have only one target: Taiwan.
Taiwan is officially protected by the United States, which has on numerous occasions publicly
declared its willingness to use military force against China in defense of the democratic
nation.
In the 1990s when tensions between China and Taiwan hit a crisis point, a US carrier task
force was dispatched to the area and China immediately stood down its military forces,
knowing it could not possibly challenge even a single American task force.
That humiliation has not been forgotten by China, and it has worked extremely hard over
the last three decades to ensure that it would not be humiliated in such a fashion ever again
on its own shores.
Today it's highly unlikely that China could successfully invade Taiwan even without US
intervention.
Tides in the Taiwan Strait make a military invasion possible only on two separate two-week
periods throughout the year, and China lacks the amphibious capability to launch a contested
landing on the few Taiwanese beaches that a landing could take place.
To even prepare for such an invasion, China would have to spend over a month gathering
up the resources to launch an attack, commandeering hundreds of civilian ships to be used as troops
carriers.
Even then, the only hope would be for China to seize a working Taiwanese port- something
that is incredibly unlikely to happen.
Despite this though, China's Xi Jinping knows that his Communist party's continued existence
is in jeopardy the longer democratic Taiwan is allowed to remain independent.
Even more pressing though is the fact that for as long as China is unable to militarily
retake Taiwan, it will signal to the world that it is not a true global power.
What global power after all can't even take back an island right on its own doorstep?
The Taiwan situation is an ongoing international embarrassment for the Chinese communist party,
and the pressure to act builds day by day.
Even if the worst comes to pass in either Taiwan or the South China sea though, the
conflict has no chance of escalating into a major world war.
China, like Iran, lacks any major allies- while it has tremendous power to influence
or intimidate even European nations thanks to its great economic might, no major power
in the world would ever respond to aid China in the case of war.
To further complicate matters, a war between the US and China would end relatively quickly
and not go very well for China for a number of reasons.
First is the fact that the Chinese military has no real experience to speak of, and routinely
under performs even in highly favorable exercise scenarios.
China has never waged a modern war, while the US brings a staggering amount of experience
to the table.
Secondly, China has a critical vulnerability that it has tried to desperately overcome
in recent years: it relies overwhelmingly on naval trade.
Not only is the Chinese navy very weak in comparison to the American navy, it is also
unable to operate far from Chinese shores, and lacks international support that it desperately
needs in order to protect Chinese naval trade from American ships.
Most of China's trade takes place through the sea, and most of that trade has to pass
through several choke points across island nations in the South Pacific that China can't
reach to defend from American vessels.
To make matters worse, most of these nations have dispositions favorable to the US.
While China has tried to circumvent this national weakness by its belt and road initiative,
which saw it build trade infrastructure across the Asian continent which included rail and
highways, it is still critically vulnerable to an American blockade.
In short, a war between the two powers would be bloody but very short, with China starved
into submission as it's unable to protect its vital trade arteries.
The truth is that the overwhelming firepower of the American navy and the world's slow
pivot to democratic ideals makes a world war almost impossible.
Most nations today align ideologically with NATO's democratic ideals, and the only two
powers capable of launching major military campaigns against the US are themselves isolated
on the world stage.
Of course a world war isn't necessary for plenty of death and destruction to occur,
but it's encouraging to know that at least for now the world won't be seeing the massive
violence between modern nations that scoured the first half of the 20th century.
Did you learn something from this video and want to learn more about other crazy topics?
Then check out this other video from The Infographics Show or we also have this video ready for
you to watch!