hi everyone welcome back to my channel if you're new here my name is Stefan and we
just had a coronal mass ejection launch from the Sun on April 30th this wispy CME as you can see
there very small but perfectly Earth directed and I want to talk about the possible effects
from that coronal mass ejection because I think it's likely to be more significant than a lot
of people are forecasting and the reason why is because we also have two coronal holes on the sun
we have the moon in the magnetotail and also high relativistic electron flux in Earth's radiation
belts so here we can zoom in and this coronal mass ejection is notable because you can see there
there's that coronal mass ejection slight rays in the plasma the density compared to
the background interplanetary space but it's happening during this higher velocity section
of the interplanetary magnetic space so whereas normally you get high density and low velocity
here we are in a higher velocity stream and then we're going to have a slight density bump on top
of that now this isn't that big of a coronal mass ejection as you can see but it's perfectly
Earth directed it looks like the center of that coronal mass ejection will hit the earth directly
and of course this is a prediction model so take this with a little bit of grain of salt
these are usually pretty accurate arrival is expected around May 3rd May 4th perhaps
if it's a little slower but there's likely going to be a cumulative effect that happens with this
coronal mass ejection because of the fact that solar wind velocity is already high there is
this coronal hole high-speed stream that will come into play around the same time radiation
belts are at high relativistic flux and the moon will be transiting through the Earth's
magnetotail which is loaded with plasma and it'll also be perfectly in playing with Earth's orbit so
it'll be even a more direct Transit through that Magnetotail so if we go to the coronal hole this
is important here is where that coronal mass ejection was launched from this rewind right
there you can see that's when that CME was launched from this Sunspot group there this
one's rotating out of view but we do have a new Sunspot region that's highly active rotating into
view so keep your eyes on that left part there but also look at this coronal hole that's been
forming here in the southern hemisphere of the Sun going from relatively unformed to fairly large not
as large as the coronal hole that has caused the past two G4 geomagnetic storms but we have this
guy growing and we have one up top there more at mid-latitude so we have two corner holes on the
sun actively growing and of course coronal holes are these regions that emit high-speed streams
from them so we're going to have this coronal mass ejection come in even though it's a relatively
tiny one it's going to come at the same time as these high-speed streams start to really buffet
the Earth with a higher velocity solar wind so this is an interesting compounding effect and
that's actually what we saw on the 23rd and 24th of April where we had our strongest geomagnetic
storm in six years now this coronal hole here is smaller than that one and this coronal mass
ejection that was launched is smaller smaller than that one too but we didn't have a moon in
the magnetotail during that geomagnetic storm and we didn't have a radiation belt that was loaded
with these high intensity electrons and ions when the geomagnetic storm that came in on April 23rd
and 24th and let me actually pause this and show you that really quick just so you can quickly
see that data that is that geomagnetic storm right there so really large but our electron flux during
that storm was very very low and that storm is actually was cause our electron flux to in the
radiation belt to increase because that's common after a large geomagnetic storm you can really see
the difference here let me go back here is the radiation belts on the 25th of April so right
after that storm they've been dumped of their electrons and then over the course you can see it
growing red and very dense there and increasing in intensity so there's that difference right
there so we are having this high speed stream or even two high-speed streams from those two coronal
holes and this coronal mass ejection hitting the Earth around the same time but this time it's
under the conditions of a radiation belt that's loaded with electrons and also the moon will be in
the magnetotail because this right here is the new moon that we had on April 20th and now the moon
has progressed in its cycle and we'll be at around a full moon there on May 5th so if we go back just
a little bit this is May 3rd this is where the moon uh it'll be nearly full at about 94 there but
that is well within the Earth's magnetotail you can imagine here's the Earth the Sun is way off
to the left there Earth's magnetotail stretches all the way past the moon we can actually see
that graphic simplified here I'll come back to this but just so you have the visualization but
as this moon is at full it's going to be interacting with the plasma loaded in that
magnetotail so we're going to have radiation belts in this near Earth environment that are loaded up
and we're going to have plasma feedback from the Moon and that coronal mass ejection even though
it's like a wispy one and also highest speed stream so there's a cumulative energetic effect
that's in play for the next few days I wanted to bring your attention to because it may affect you
bioelectrically it's good to know and if you're someone that's interested in space weather then
you like to stay up to date and maybe your Aurora photographer here is that graphic showing the moon
in the magnetotail and the magnetotail holds this low-density high-intensity plasma and this can be
ejected out of the magnetotail as a plasmoid but sometimes this plasma feeds backwards to the Earth
so it depends on the magnetic field dynamics at the time but space weather and the Sun and
things of that nature influence these dynamics and the moon transiting through the magnetotail also
influences those dynamics so we can see what some of that looks like here this is a depiction some
past data there's the Earth there we can see these waves and movements of plasma in the magnetosphere
and at times it moves away from the earth and other times it moves in you can see here these
vectors these arrows their direction is indicated by the arrow and then their intensity is indicated
by the color so red is higher intensity you can see them streaming towards the Earth there here
in this example they're streaming away this is solar wind hitting the magnetopause and streaming
away from the earth there but overall there's times where the plasma loaded in the magnetotail
moves towards Earth rather than being ejected out from the magnetotail into interplanetary space
away from the Earth and the Sun so here you can see it's streaming towards the Earth so we have
the high speed streams from these coronal holes that are growing we have the coronal mass ejection
that was launched right there on April 30th you can see how big these uh these coronal holes
are getting and then we have the moon and then we also have just the fact that we're in this higher
velocity section of the interplanetary space so a lot of factors converging I wanted to bring your
attention to because I think that collectively they're going to have a bigger influence than you
would expect now this is that G4 geomagnetic storm that we had on April 23rd and 24th you can see the
Kp indices a measure of geomagnetic volatility we're relatively elevated afterwards this is
like a long period multi-day wave of geomagnetic instability moderate instability Kp's are ranging
from about three to four for multiple days so perhaps you notice that bioelectrically and you
felt those effects you were either more energetic or more fatigued it depends on your own individual
system and where you are but the Kp indices are just now starting to drop but if we look at our
electron flux here's what I'm talking about it's been charging and growing upwards every single
day since that geomagnetic storm well above the alert threshold here that NOAA uses so you know
the radiation belts are well loaded this is about the high so you'll typically see them and this is
a log scale so keep that in mind folks when it's down here the flux is like three or four
orders of magnitude lower than it is when it's up here so that's quite a big difference and these
relativistic electrons precipitate down into the ionosphere changing the electromagnetic potentials
of the Earth's ionosphere which induces currents changes atmospheric weather patterns and can also
induce to alert currents in the ground so all this affects us bioelectrically if you notice
some effects from this incoming geomagnetic storm we don't know what scale it's going to be yet I
think it's likely to be bigger than expected but I don't think it's going to be like some
mega-geomagnetic storm we'll wait and find out but if you are feeling this biologically then
one of the best things you can do is to Earth yourself to ground yourself so I want to take
a quick moment to talk about the solar cycle we got our numbers in for April you can see here that
Sunspot numbers went down below 100 which I was not expecting but still above the NASA estimate
from like 2020 or so looks like April activity in terms of sunspots went down though of course that
was a pretty active month in terms of geomagnetic volatility strongest storm in over six years but
this is sore cycle 25 there some analysts are expecting it to Peak in 2023 I think this April
data point shows that it might still be more like 2024 and 2025 that we see the peak of the
solar cycle I don't expect it to peak in the end of 2023 I think it's going to be a little longer
that's what I think we'll have to wait and find out that's how this works ultimately no one can
predict the future when it comes to stuff but we can just have best guess probabilities estimates
based on current observations and past data so if we look at our radio flux you can see there
it also went down in April below the March value but still it didn't like go into that 2022 zone
whereas this sunspot number there at 96 kind of went back to old 2022 values but the sum was also
pretty active in 2022. still at the upper bound of this predicted range so not near the median
still just at the upper bound there whereas these are well above it solar cycle 25 has been quite
active I expect like that to continue I do expect these numbers go up especially this summer and I
want to show you quickly the Schumann residences out of Cumiana Italy as collected by the VLF group
because there were some notable activity over the past couple days there you can see big activations
going from 0 to 50 plus Hertz in the Schumann resonances these are those natural resonant
standing waves of light that correspond with the Earth's circumference and then those harmonics
so these are really interesting because they overlap with the biosphere the atmosphere the
lithosphere the ionosphere the radiation belts they sit in the middle of almost everything so
to see big activations and big Power increases in the Schumann resonances is notable this has been
linked with earthquake activity very large magnitude earthquakes in general it's good
to keep your eye on these so I wanted to show you this and show you that the past couple days while
the Kp indices have gone down Schumann resonances activity at least in Italy has gone up thank you
so much for watching this video I hope you find this information useful just keep your eyes peeled
and keep your energy systems aware of what's coming in over the next couple days because we
do have this week coronal mass ejection heading in if you like the video please click that like
button subscribe and I'll see you all in future videos thanks so much and have a great day ciao