tonight we have a Channel 4 News special
on the issue that many of you have been
worrying about the spread of the corona
virus
there are many urgent questions how
deadly is it how fast can it spread what
are the best precautions will we end up
responding to it the way the China has
done and how prepared are we in Britain
here are some of the answers the corona
virus has come to Britain is it here to
stay the situation will get worse before
it gets better as authorities scramble
to contain an outbreak people aren't
learning on the job this is an expected
scenario fear and frustration start to
spread on this island so public health
England have really got to step up
health workers warned that the NHS can't
cope as experts fear it could become a
pandemic and this virus is the one which
probably concerns me the most of
everything I've worked on we explore if
Britain can cope if it gets worse people
are trained to do business as part of
their job
[Music]
the epicenter of the and just China's
problem
Wuhan is China's manufacturing
powerhouse its population bigger than
London so where is everybody this is
ground zero for the virus in response
the Chinese government has kept 11
million people off the streets with at
least 65 thousand cases and rising
authorities here are taking no chances
holding areas and pop up hospitals built
in days from scratch to contain those
infected but these facilities and their
doctors are feeling the strain cut off
from the rest of the world who hands
inhabitants a screen for infection and
monitored to prevent the viruses spread
those who can't or won't comply with
residents are ordered to stay inside
life here is empty and eerie Ben
Cavanaugh has been documenting the
shutdown usually a very very busy road
not for the foreseeable future let's go
home
the Irish teacher living in Wuhan at the
time was evacuated with around 200
Britons he left China quarantined but
not everyone has and the rapid spread of
the virus has alarmed experts over just
two months the virus officially termed
covered 19 has killed almost 1,400
people in China with almost 65,000
confirmed cases worldwide the only other
deaths outside mainland China are in
Hong Kong the Philippines and Japan it
is spread to at least 25 countries
across five continents
and in the UK we now have 9 confirmed
cases Brighton in East Sussex home to
our first cluster 5 cases were confirmed
here this week all infected by a
so-called super spreader a man called
Steve Walsh at least one of these cases
is a doctor at County Oak Medical Center
another worked in A&E at Worthing
hospital and the fact that they were
infected outside China as authorities
concerned the detection of this small
number of cases could be the spark that
becomes a bigger fire dealing with this
disease is a marathon not a sprint the
situation will get worse before it gets
better it's very important everybody
should be confident we're a great
country got a fantastic NHS you've got
fantastic doctors and and advice and
they should simply take the advice of
the NHS the Prime Minister may be
sounding characteristically upbeat but
the World Health Organization are still
very cautious desperately seeking
precise answers to very pertinent
questions what exactly is the mortality
rate of this virus how fast and how far
can it spread are we facing another
global pandemic and that the area images
of Wuhan under lockdown a glimpse of our
future here in Britain local journalist
Emily Walker is about to launch into the
screen yeah shall we go give our hands a
wash before we put our coats on yeah the
new virus from a distant country has
spawned a new kind of fear and a dilemma
what to tell children and what not to
tell them we've just had a message from
the school this morning to say to
families at the school
I've been told by public health to self
isolate they're advising us if we wish
to keep our children off it will be an
authorized absence so obviously I've had
a lot of messages from other parents
this morning everybody's kind of
freaking out about whether to send your
kids in or not her son's school is just
over the road from the closed Medical
Center and details about what to do are
in short supply
professor Samir beguine a Brighton
consular on the city's health board is
one of the few local officials prepared
to go on the record in what feels like
an information lockdown all I'm saying
is the public health England have got to
step up because they haven't and
actually I'm quoting the health
secretary who yesterday said there's an
imminent danger to the public and I was
saying if the health secretary is saying
that then public health England have
really got to step up and be more open
in their communications and their
conversations with everybody Samia is
arguing with the boss at the council
about how much information should be
made public this morning we hear that
parents were being told that they don't
have to send their kids to a particular
school and they'll get authorized
absences for that now that's that's
crucial we have to challenge public I
think that they have actually mocked our
victim here all right
okay we're all in unchartered territory
and everyone is trying to work out the
dividing line between precaution
heíd slurry from the argus hi there I've
written up a story which doesn't
identify your Emily Walker's starting
her work day at the Argos brightens
local paper hell a newsroom the
journalists are trying to piece together
details of a suspected case as they make
their calls they discover that lack of
clear advice from the authorities is
upsetting residents we keep getting
these parents from schools and patients
from medical center is freaking out
basically because I don't know whether
to go to their doctors to their school
whether they should be in contact people
or not with the potentially deadly virus
on your doorstep it's no surprise that
people are concerned reports suggests
that at least eight out of the nine
cases in Britain have only mild symptoms
public health England state that you
have to be within 2 metres of someone
for 15 minutes in order to be at risk so
what should we be looking out for and
who should we be worried about typically
we see this virus causing a cough or
shortness of breath and because there's
inflammation it can also cause a fever
so those are the characteristic symptoms
that we're looking at the most
vulnerable people are people who have
pre-existing health conditions and we're
still really looking to see how we can
identify there's been some reports that
possibly people more in sort of middle
to older age are more vulnerable to more
severe symptoms
for Britain the next few weeks a crucial
how the virus spreads and how we respond
could be a defining moment for us we
make one of the global experts on
modeling the spread of the virus is
we're probably where Wuhan was at the
beginning of December in terms of the
sort of numbers of infections which have
likely established themselves in the
country what we're seeing is a very
severe tip of the iceberg in the
official case numbers certainly what we
know is there's been huge demand and
medical care a lot of pneumonias but the
we think that really probably only
represents five percent of cases or so
direct flights to and from Beijing and
Shanghai have been canceled but a
Chinese national became the ninth case
in Britain she developed symptoms
shortly after landing at Heathrow we
surveyed a hundred workers from
Britain's airports about what's being
done to keep the virus out 87% told us
that screening tests are not taking
place on passengers arriving from
countries with major outbreaks their
conclusion 96 percent believe that we're
not keeping Britain's borders safe so
the question is you know how much
infection has reached the country
we think it's probably two three times
what's actually been detected are there
any doubts in your mind that this is now
a global pandemic estimate we have at
the moment of the start of a global
pandemic of a new respiratory virus
we've tracked how two Chinese tourists
created a cluster of new patients in
Singapore and these daily contacts can
happen anywhere a guided tour takes them
to a jewelry shop they talked to a few
staff and sample medical oils a
saleswoman is infected later her cleaner
as well then a second sales woman her
husband and their six month old son then
the tour guide and her husband then two
more shopkeepers nine new cases after
just a few minutes of souvenir shopping
and latest estimates suggest that 60% of
the world's entire population could
contract covet 19 if it's not controlled
do you think that the infection rate of
60% of the population which has been
suggested by some of your colleagues is
realistic for Britain potentially given
when we know a lot about how these sort
of viruses spread we have lots of data
from past epidemics my influenza given
how transmissible this virus appears to
be and the fact that at least all adults
can be infected we have much less data
in children then 60% is a reasonable
figure of fall for the epidemic size
within the first 12 months or so what we
don't know at the moment is of everybody
infected what proportion might die and
what are the risk groups
our best estimate at the moment is that
maybe 1% of people who get infected
might die
and in a mortality rate of 1% that's
400,000 people potentially I would
emphasize that at the moment you know
putting numbers like 400,000 isn't
necessarily helpful because we have so
little information but it's an absurd
number it's not an absurd number are we
overreacting
I would much prefer to be accused of
overreacting
under acting let's put it that way and
this virus is the one which probably
concerns me the most of everything I've
worked on but not everyone is convinced
by the scary numbers professor Sean
Griffiths co-chaired the Hong Kong
government's inquiry into the 2003 SARS
epidemic that is an estimate a top
estimate it doesn't mean 60 percent of
the world's population are going to get
the disease the super spreader
phenomenon is one that leads to
difficulties in controlling the disease
as we saw with the case from Brighton
the key question if predictions come to
pass can our health service really cope
in wuhan they built two hospitals in
under two weeks housing over 2,000
patients elsewhere in China the
authorities used drones to make sure
citizens wear face masks in public so is
this going to happen to us we're nowhere
near that yet but at this play group in
Brighton despite the frantic cleaning
shisei today must unearth parents are
already avoiding the touristy journey
crowds numbers to be down we thought
maybe we shouldn't have it today but it
is a good service it's example for the
mums really even these ladies are trying
to adjust no buses and a moment of
levity but how did the frontline medical
workers feel we carried out an exclusive
survey of over 500 frontline health
workers 96 percent told us that they
believe the NHS isn't ready to deal with
the major outbreak and 93 percent
believe there isn't enough protection
for NHS staff on the front line with
1,700 doctors infected in China medical
workers here may be right to worry
but how Britain has coped with previous
health emergencies helps us to
understand how it might handle a
large-scale corona virus outbreak now
this air ambulance crew threw themselves
into the unknown in Salisbury when the
deadly nerve agent lava shot was found
there two years ago never don't look
every night for us when we attended
Salisbury on and Amesbury we didn't even
have a clue that there was a nerve agent
involved and it's like you know when
first responders now attend incidents
where someone has got flu-like symptoms
again they are going to be unaware if
that is part of the corona virus I think
early communication with the attendant
authorities is key and for public health
England and other bodies to be open and
honest about what is going on on what
the attending clinicians will expect and
if need be to have blood tests to have
you know adult conversations about how
we will be in the future or how we will
be at that time it's still too early to
tell just how far and how wide this
virus will spread but with two frontline
health workers already infected the
experts fear that we may be heading into
the unknown
[Music]
the coronavirus has reached our shores
we're told they were on the brink of a
global pandemic that unchecked could
infect 60% of the planet
so is Britain ready we're in Brighton
the epicenter of the virus in this
country in the news room of the local
paper the Argos Laurie has received a
call from a person who may have caught
the virus from another suspected case at
work they were sent home immediately
and told to stay in isolation you've
been in contact with someone who may
have coronavirus okay will you escort it
or you're in a cab was the cab driver
wearing a mask you had a mask on the
advice from the government for people
who do develop symptoms is to stay
inside and avoid contact with others but
this has clearly been missed by some the
first person diagnosed in London turned
up at a hospital in an uber it's making
taxi drivers nervous yeah of course yeah
because it's quite dangerous thing you
know it's spreading especially in
Brighton of Hope I you know work as a
rouble driver and I tell you so many
different people every day
so obviously bit anxious and worried so
don't get it that's why I'm wearing
masks and protecting myself and also
other people as well now the virus is
here the focus is containment it's
believed that is spread via tiny
droplets of saliva so the principal
advice wash your hands a lot on exactly
cutting-edge we'll need something else
so this is where we first start working
on the vaccine this is the beginning of
the story
it's a qual here has been working with
the sequence and is introducing it into
self check that is expressed in the
right way
professor Robinson XT Matt Imperial
College London is working round the
clock to make a vaccine we're really at
the very beginning of the approach
what's exciting is that we've been able
to probably move faster than we have
before because technology has really
changed since the SARS epidemic for
example and so we've compressed that
process of developing a candidate
vaccine from a period of many months to
a few weeks a few weeks so best-case
scenario when is the earliest that we
could have a vaccine well that's more
challenging so we've come up with a
candidate within a few weeks but it's
now in just it started in animal testing
the next stage will be to move it to
human studies which we hope to be able
to do in the next months the earliest
that any group in the world will get a
vaccine available for the wider public
would be early next year we may see that
there's a second wave as we come back
into winter next year and then we may
well need a vaccine particularly if we
see Cisco global spread of this virus
but in terms of the health and safety
measures that people are adopting
worldwide face masks so the evidence for
face masks in the general public is very
limited in fact there's no evidence to
show that they have any effect
whatsoever
so if masks don't work how do we stop a
deadly spread like in previous pandemics
nothing has yet come close to the
Spanish flu outbreak of 1918 which is
estimated to have killed around 50
million people worldwide with over
200,000 deaths in the UK as for seasonal
flu 17,000 people have died each year on
average in England in the last five
years but if estimates are correct 23
times more could die of the corona virus
we've already had more deaths globally
than the 774 who died from SARS between
2002 and 2004 the viruses which pose the
greatest threat globally are the ones
which are mild enough to be effectively
transmitted them around the world and
for the sort of measures which rely on
isolating cases not to be terribly
effective but have a high enough
mortality that the overall impact when
the epidemic runs its course is high so
can our health care system cope with
what might be around the corner our
exclusive survey of over 500 frontline
NHS staff found that 88 percent believe
there aren't adequate facilities such as
isolation Aires to cope with large
numbers of suspected corona virus cases
and 81 percent thought there has not
been enough preparation for the corona
virus they told us I'm a pregnant GP I'm
genuinely scared
patients get unreliable inconsistent and
potentially dangerous advice from
one-one-one high risk patients are still
being told to see their GP
we're being drowned and demand a patient
rang because they had a cough and lived
next door to a Chinese takeaway no
briefing a mas I've had to buy my own
from screw fix nowhere to put patients
in primary care other than shutting them
in the toilet if there is a big outbreak
of corona virus patients who need a lot
of care in hospital they're gonna have
to be difficult choices made we're going
to have to think about what other things
are going to need to be put back what
surgery can be postponed what outpatient
appointments can be cancelled
and those are going to be difficult
decisions that we don't want to have to
make but the hospitals don't have the
capacity because we've been stripped
very much to the bone for the last few
years we put the concerns from health
workers to public health England but
aren't you alarmed by these numbers of
course those numbers are not where we
will need to be what I'm saying is that
we are in very early stages at the
moment of dealing with novel coronavirus
we are making sure there's advice
constantly going out to hospitals across
the country the chief medical officer
the medical director of NHS England and
others writing a regular basis with
updates the guidance there are extensive
plans across both the NHS wider
government systems public health England
and others to deal with whatever the
eventualities a B now that eventualities
in the reasonable worst case scenario is
not without its challenges and those
challenges may be significant for the
NHS and it will be prepared and thinking
about how to deal with those so I don't
think we can say you know that this
there won't be any difficulties if we do
get into that scenario should we be
banning all direct flights from China
and other affected areas well what we do
do is make sure that every flight that
comes to the UK from an area where
there's concern about infection that
passengers get information that we the
pilot has to declare before they land as
to whether there's anybody with illness
on the flight and that there are
announcements made on the flight so that
if anybody does return from China or one
of the other countries of concern and
they do get symptoms and they phone as
quickly and we can get them tested
that's the most important thing for us
to do at this stage
what holds the scientists is whether
this could become another global
pandemic like the Spanish flu of 1918
which kill perhaps as many as 50 million
people worldwide now the world is much
better and faster these days are
developing a vaccine but it is also far
more interconnected and mobile
will the coronavirus force societies in
Britain and elsewhere to behave in
fundamentally different ways could we
cope or are we all in danger of becoming
boo ha
you