the chief scientific advisor sir patrick
valence and the chief medical officer of
england
professor chris witte have both been
challenged by mps about the evidence
behind
the latest lockdown in england in
particular they were asked about some
modelling scenarios which had suggested
there could be as many as 4 000
deaths a day without appropriate
measures in place
one mp accused them of frightening a lot
of people but
patrick said it was based on an
assumption to try to get
a reasonable worst case scenario our
science editor david shuckman has more
details
it's the risk of the health service
being overwhelmed that suddenly changed
government policy
a decision based on scientific
projections for how many thousands
the virus might kill in the coming
months but looking at this
official graph what are the real chances
of the worst scenario being right
as the chief scientific advisor that's
the question that mps raised today
putting the government's top advisors on
the spot you don't think that you just
frightened people
who do not have your scientific
background
and understanding of models or not
well i i hope not i mean i think i hope
not and that's certainly not the aim
it's very difficult to project forward
in a way that doesn't inevitably
lead to a problem of you know is that
real no it's not real it's a model
but it is what we need to understand
because this is a disease which is
spreading like all epidemics
in a way that will affect us in weeks to
come
but isn't felt today some of the
projections for future deaths
were made before the regional three-tier
system
had any effect and like any computer
models
they're meant to be a guide to what
might happen rather than a firm
prediction
so is there a clear sense of the impact
of the virus
today we got the latest figures for what
are called excess deaths that's deaths
above
average shown on this line here based on
data
over the last five years back in april
losses were massively above that average
line and nearly all of them
were because of covert 19 and looking
more recently
there are signs of another increase in
deaths above
average and the main cause is coving
the number of hospital admissions is the
key indicator
of what's happening right now and
whatever the arguments over future
scenarios
there's a warning that things are mostly
going the wrong way
the rates are still steadily tracking up
in all the data that i have seen in the
older age groups who are the ones who
are likely to translate into
hospitalizations
icu cases and deaths
the reality is that on average someone
who's infected
is spreading the virus to more than one
other person
and the hope is that the new
restrictions will help to reverse that
david shukman bbc news
everyone who lives or works in liverpool
will be offered a rapid coronavirus test
whether they have symptoms or not from
friday
military personnel will help to deliver
the pilot scheme and if it's successful
it could be rolled out across the united
kingdom our health correspondent
dominic hughes reports from liverpool
but what did the wars
do for people's faith like so many
others across the country
pupils at st margaret's academy in
liverpool are making up for time lost
during the first lockdown the imagery
tends to be a little bit more positive
here
the threat to their education from the
coronavirus remains
especially from those who are
asymptomatic who don't yet have symptoms
but can still infect others it's hard
for people to come out of the way after
school if we've been affected so badly
already
but what do these sixth formers think
about the plan for city-wide testing
you've got to factor in all the people
that don't want to get tested because
you can't force people to get tested
people aren't being safe especially in
liverpool's being a few like cases where
people
just aren't sticking to isolation rules
and stuff so
i think i can see it from that point of
view why they want to do that
people do live in fear about the
chronovirus and so it would
settle a lot of people's minds if they
knew a deafness yes or no whether you've
got it
it's an opportunity to drive down the r8
the school's principal
is stephen braley i think if we've got
good accurate knowledge
of who's got it and who hasn't our
schools will be safer
because there'll be less asymptomatic
people in school there'll be fewer
people
who are infected fewer people in schools
who are infected and therefore more
children staying in school more learning
going on
the liverpool pilot will start this week
as well as existing swab tests there
will be what are known as lateral flow
tests
which can provide a result within an
hour without the need to use a lab
organizing citywide testing will be a
logistical challenge
the army will once again help as it did
during the first wave of the pandemic
the head of the test and trace program
in england which has been criticized for
having only a marginal
impact on reducing infections says this
will be a team effort this is a
programme
led by liverpool for liverpool we
together want to find
as many people who have the disease as
possible
so that we can stop them infecting
others and that's the way
we will all get back to work and get
back to the lives we want to live
even a city-wide testing program won't
be enough to stop kovid
in its tracks the basics washing her
hands wearing a face covering
maintaining social distance remain the
best way to stop the spread of the virus
and there are big questions about how
many people are going to want to
self-isolate if they're not showing any
symptoms
and how many will be willing to come
forward for a test
if it potentially means missing out on
work and the pay that will bring
any time in a city that has seen some of
the highest number of covert cases in
the uk
the big question is whether more testing
will help slow or even reverse the
spread of the virus
and help keep places like saint
margaret's free from infection
dominic hughes bbc news liverpool