I'll start with you. Just one year on Hong Kong.
The fact that this came from one way poll, I mean, a pro Beijing paper does
add a bit more credence to this, right? I would think so.
Pro Beijing. And of course, well, there's no
opposition newspapers really anymore in Hong Kong.
Right. And then go in a different direction
there. But it is pro Beijing and it is
essentially state owned. So perhaps lending some credence, as you
said. And also, again, they're citing
unidentified sources as saying, you know, that this potentially could be the
next step for Hong Kong's easing of fewer testing requirements when you come
in, because right now, when you come into Hong Kong, you have one PCR test on
arrival and then one on so-called day two, which is actually, what, the third
day and then seven rapid antigen tests every day for seven consecutive days.
And I know at all I've been through it all.
You know, if you missed that second one, you will get an envelope, a manila
envelope in the mail saying you have violated it and you are subject to a
fifty thousand dollar fine and up to six months in prison.
So, you know, there's they might relax some of that.
I would assume and as well as the massive chunk of it just feels more
relaxed attitude, though, on the streets of Hong Kong, wouldn't you say, Steve?
Yes. You know, that would be anecdotal
evidence, obviously, Jihye Lee that everyone they still has to wear a mask.
So you can't really read that on their faces.
But I think there is more of a call for it in Hong Kong given what's happening
in mainland China. It's a bitch.
Hong Kong served as a test bed for relaxation through this Omicron period
where the spike in cases was not huge in Hong Kong after they essentially relaxed
in October. Taiwan has not necessarily seen a huge
spike since they relaxed in October and now China is relaxing.
ISE. Okay.
Is this heralding now the start of what was right, the beginning of this
pandemic, the vaunted idea of herd immunity?
Yes. So was China is trying to achieve.
I believe is that when they try to relax, to call them measures without
using the green coat anymore in public transportations and other service area
like shopping malls, this will actually induce herd immunity.
We have to remember that China has been protected, the public for so long.
There has been no herd immunity in China.
So this is going to start and this process is not going to be smooth.
It will be quite difficult at the beginning because the residents will be
very cautious. We read news like people are stocking up
medicines and oxygen fast. So this kind of thing.
So I guess it begs the question, where does the growth come?
Where do we get that 5 percent growth from?
Because when I first reported this yesterday with the new slew of measures,
I thought, OK, well, here's the ticket for the consumer to come back.
But I guess, you know, 24 hours later, we're going well.
People are still hesitant to go out, even though they don't have those PCR
requirements or the code on their app to go out.
People are hesitant, aren't they? Went where the IBEX.
Maybe you can address that. Where are they going to find this growth
target of 5 percent? They've already chopped him down at the
knees that the that the platform companies, they've chopped down property
where they can find it. Kamala Harris.
Very good. So that's why I am actually revising
doll my GDP forecasts from last month's forecasts.
So for this year I revised down from 3 percent three point three percent to two
point 0 6 percent. Well, even a negative Yong Yi a slight
negative year on year in fourth quarter because we all know that it is almost
written off because of retail sales. And then for the first quarter it's not
a pretty good 3 point something percent year on year.
And therefore, I believe that all the growth will actually depends on how
speedy the infrastructure spending will be.
And because the government don't need to spend any more on Covid task and all
that. So that is extra room on fiscal budgets,
on already spending. Technology spending and all this.
So don't don't think too much about consumption.
Yes. And we saw that 9 percent drop in
exports yesterday and the China trade numbers, which goes to show a slowing
economy externally as well. Yes.
So you can't exactly rely on domestic growth to take any kind out of the hole.
Yes. The manufacturing sector in 2023 is not
going to look good because of the very weak export sector.
We expect likely recession in U.S. and Europe.
And therefore, I think that manufacturing sectors, jobs and wages
will will be not pretty good. So that's why I believe that it is
solely infrastructure, physical infrastructure and software
infrastructure. So it was essential that the Chinese
government do this. It wasn't necessarily tied directly to
the. Street protests said that it was a
necessity because the economy, for economy's sake, it's the government has
to do this. Yeah, yeah.
What if it doesn't? People have been saying for ages,
haven't they? Ultimately that they're sacrificing the
economy for this. This virus is 0 Covid policy.
Yeah. And herd immunity takes time.
It's not immediate. And so we can't really be too optimistic
on retail sales to boost growth. So in 2024, it may happen in the second
half, but not really in the first half. So if what do you see is the biggest
kind of impact on the global economy when China does reopen fully, then, you
know, I think you recorded a story in the end, I wrote about how how much
inflation can pick up. So can it really come back in a big way?
Yes, it can. But what time it comebacks is the is the
real question. So the timing is very important for
reopening. That means opening the borders with
international. So just like Hong Kong, we are not for
reopening of the international borders.
For example, we have zero plus 3 currently, which is which actually means
that Hong Kong people will go outside and not really attracting visitors into
Hong Kong. So we see news that say Hong Kong may
remove mask wearing masks in the public.
I think the essential things is to remove a zero plus 3 to get Hong Kong
running again. So China has to do this.
But it the first thing is that it has to get it herd immunity first.
Then it opens. I mean, if you remove Covid testing of
the airport, that more or less perhaps presages.
Exactly getting rid of 0 plus 3 could be the corollary of that.
But I bet it gets get an idea of how much pent up demand there is.
You alluded to this already and how that will fit into your growth forecast for
the whole of next year, for instance. So if if you are talking about Hong
Kong, then you might mean China. Mainland China, OK, for mainland China.
I think that it depends on consumptions a lot because we have seen an absence of
some consumptions for so long and we are not going to see coming back in the
first half. So we look for second half
of the border, mainland border very quickly.
That's going to be very good. Not may not see this in 2023.