On Maui’s west coast, the town of Lahaina was the epicenter of wildfires that turned
Hawaii’s ancient Royal capital … into ruins, with around 2,200 structures destroyed,
thousands of people displaced, hundreds missiling and dozens of lives lost.
A paradise … turned into ash …
But how these fires started and what got them so out of control, why many residents did
not evacuate their homes until it was too late, making this incident one of the worst
natural disasters in Hawaii, and how many more lives could have been saved if the emergency
sirens that are spread all around the island had not remained silent, is Not What You Think.
On August 6th, 2023, just two days before the fires broke out, the National Weather
Service in Honolulu had posted this animation on ex-Twitter, as they had anticipated the
potential for high fire danger.
This forecast was based on the passing of Hurricane Dora south of the island, which
would have caused a strong pressure gradient, creating strong winds gusting at 80 mph.
Whether the initial fires were caused by lightning, downed power lines or something else is yet
to be determined.
But Lahaina is one of the driest places in Hawaii due to being located in the rain shadow
of the West Maui Mountains.
Once the fields north east of the town caught on fire, the strong winds spread the fire
quickly, and directly toward the residential area.
But how come so many residents were caught off-guard, even though various warnings had
been sent out by the authorities?
Hawaii is surrounded by the Ring of Fire, which refers to about 450 volcanoes that produce
90% of the world’s earthquakes, which in turn can create tsunamis.
So not only are there various measuring devices to monitor for natural disasters, the Hawaiian
islands are also equipped with sirens to warn their residents in case of an emergency.
In fact, Hawaii has the largest outdoor warning siren system in the US, if not in the world.
There are about 410 sirens spread across multiple islands.
But these sirens were never activated on August 8th, 2023, when the fires burned down parts
of the island.
The sirens are battery powered and equipped with a solar charging system.
They also have redundant cellular/satellite communications.
On the first working day of each month, the sirens are tested exactly at 11:45 AM.
This helps identify any defective sirens which are then repaired to ensure they will work
when needed.
No one has yet provided an exact reason why the sirens were not used on the day of the
fires, but there are some speculations.
A Hawaii Emergency Management Agency spokesperson suggested that “It was largely a function
of how fast the flames were moving.
They were trying to coordinate response on the ground, and they had already issued other
alerts”.
Which is true.
Three other public warning systems were used to notify the residents.
This included wireless emergency alerts that were sent to cellphones, broadcasts through
radio and television stations, and finally, alerts that residents can sign up for to receive
updates through a local emergency alert system.
But if warnings messages had been sent out, how come many residents were caught off-guard,
leaving their homes too late to make it to safety?
Even though some residents reported having received warnings, they were not the type
of alerts that make a loud sound on your phone, even if it’s on silent.
In addition, not everyone had received the warnings, either due to poor cell phone coverage,
lack of access to cable TV, and possibly because by the time the alerts were broadcasted, power
and communications systems had already been down in some areas, most likely destroyed
by strong winds and fires.
In addition, the Maui Fire Department had declared the Lahaina brush fire 100% contained
shortly before 9 AM on the day of the fires, and this had been communicated on County of
Maui’s Facebook page at 4 PM, but the fire clearly got out of hand.
It’s not surprising that there is much outrage about the sirens not having been activated,
and understandably so.
The sirens could have warned people and saved more lives.
But it is also possible that they could have caused confusion, and that’s based on the
very history that brought these sirens to Hawaii in the first place.
In 1946, a major tsunami in Hawaii killed nearly 160 people.
After that incident, sirens were added to the island to warn residents about imminent
natural disasters.
The sirens were set up with the ability to produce different tones, depending on the
type of emergency.
But in 1960, when another major tsunami hit the island, many residents had no idea what
the particular siren sound meant, and what they needed to do next.
This contributed to the death toll.
Since then, the siren only makes a single steady tone regardless of the type of emergency.
This is only meant to get people’s attention, so they would turn on the TV, listen to the
radio or check their messages in order to know what’s happening and what they need
to do.
But instead of sounding a siren, why couldn’t they broadcast a message with instructions?
Wouldn’t that be more helpful?
The original sirens did not have an electrical speaker.
What made the sound was a rotor powered by an electric motor which upon spinning, blew
the air out of a special housing.
That’s what generated the famous siren sound.
So of course, no messages could have been broadcasted on those sirens.
But newer sirens are essentially just loud speakers and they could be used to broadcast
a verbal message.
The challenge though is that sound levels diminish with distance, making the message
incomprehensible.
This is known as the Charlie Brown effect.
In addition, presence of other sounds in the area could make it impossible to understand
what is being said.
For reference, this is what talking into a megaphone sounds like from a helicopter.
But there are special devices that are designed to communicate messages clearly over a long
distance.
This is a Long-Range Acoustic Device or LRAD.
And performing the same helicopter test with LRAD.
The difference is undeniable.
This is why the fire department at Mill Valley, California upgraded their old sirens to LRADs.
This way, in addition to alerting about an imminent danger, they can also communicate
messages and instructions to their residents.
Hawaii has also had a history of false alarms in recent years.
In the morning of January 13th, 2018, an alert was accidentally issued over television, radio,
and cellphones in the state of Hawaii, instructing citizens to seek out shelter due to an incoming
ballistic missile.
It quickly turned out that the message had been sent out by mistake.
Of course everyone was relieved to find out their lives were not coming to an end, but
they were also outraged to have been put into such a stressful situation.
Then on September 18th, 2019, emergency sirens went off for a potential tsunami threat in
Oahu and Maui, which also turned out to be a false alarm.
All this said, activating the sirens would have undeniably reached many people who were
not notified by other means of communication, and this could have possibly made them more
alert to what was about to happen.
Many residents evacuated their homes when they saw smoke, which was already too late.
The streets were flooded with cars, many of which didn’t get to leave in time.
As of August 17th, 2023, only 9 days after Maui’s wildfires, 111 people have been confirmed
dead.
This is while 75% of the burn area is yet to be searched, which will inevitably increase
the casualties even more.