You know, I think it will see something new before we see currency go
to zero.
And unfortunately, you know, these kind of end of Empires or currency
regimes usually end in war.
It's a scapegoat provides a scapegoat for them.
Well, I think that's the moment that, you know, you run not walk to
get some physical metal if you don't have any.
The number one thing, I think we should be focused on is interest
rates specifically The Benchmark 10-year yield as that yield his just,
you know, exploded from 0.36% of March of two thousand twenty up to
over three percent now.
And I believe that March of two thousand twenty marked, the end of a
40-year bull market in bonds and in debt instruments in the US.
And that's significant because you go back, 40 years.
That means
Most money managers institutional investors, they've never been.
They've never lived through an era of rising interest rates.
And it that changes everything, it changes, you know, the price of
money.
Now that said nothing continues to move and we're at an interesting
place.
If you look at a chart where interest rates have run really far really
fast, they're probably due to pull back and consolidate here, but I do
think the overall trend has changed and we're going to see higher
yields in the years ahead and that really changes, you know.
The whole Paradigm of the Global Financial system.
Well, the, the price of money.
The treasury market is the price of money, and when you change the
price of money, you change everything, but really, what matters even
more than nominal yields is real yields.
So if the tenure is at three point two percent, but inflation is at
8%, you've got a negative five percent yield and that's highly
inflationary and I think that's going to continue.
But, you know, when when you have nominal rates double like this.
Be called 5% as average 30-year fixed mortgage right now that makes
housing almost unaffordable.
What was previously affordable.
Few months ago, now puts just owning a medium priced home Out Of Reach
of many Americans.
Everything is based on debt everything.
So when you double, you know, when you see the interest rates rise
like this, the last time we saw credit contraction was in 2008 and
credit contracted just this little blip on the radar and almost took
Stout took down the whole
System.
So, of credit really contracts because of rising rates.
It has the potential to take down everything.
And that's why I don't think the FED is going to do that, or allow
that to happen.
They're going to reverse course.
I'm highly highly confident of that and step back in and buy these
treasuries to try and force yields back down, or at least keep them
from rising as fast as they work.
When do you think they pivot?
There's a very good chance that if that happens this fall, you know,
October time frame is typically a week month for
equities, and, you know, I think the FED likes seeing asset prices
under pressure, a little bit here because it
That's disinflationary.
It kind of, it gives the appearance that they're being successful in
their fight against inflation.
So there, I think they're content to little little, let a little bit
of air out of this bubble, but they don't want to get out of control.
So I think, you know, september/october is a decent guess on when they
met pivot.
But you know, it's interesting especially the debt markets and silver
and gold markets.
Commodity markets are forward looking.
So I think silver and gold will anticipate this pivot before it
actually happens and we could be
Going to see that right now, you know, Silvers up a little bit from
the lows.
Gold is Truck starting to curl up from the lows.
That doesn't mean downside risk isn't still present.
But I think the metals Market will anticipate the FED pivot.
So, this chart goes back to 1980s over 40 years and you can see this
40-year downtrend line.
This by the way, is a chart showing the yield on the 10-year Treasury
and look at this peak right here or excuse me, this drop in March of
two thousand twenty.
Like I said, I believe that drop right there marked DLo of a 40-year,
Or or the top of a 40-year bull market in bonds, but this rally is
really unprecedented.
I mean, look at this the steepness of this rally and if you come up to
the top here, this RSI tells you when something's over bought we
haven't been this overbought and yields in 40 years.
So it might sound like I'm kind of talking out of both sides of my
mouth here.
I think over the longer term, yields are going to go higher.
But over the short term.
I think we're going to see, you know, a pullback in yields as the FED
begins to indicate that they're going to reverse course they even
float.
Trial balloons about that last week fed, TF Metals, call them fed
goons.
I like kind of like to call them that fed.
Goon.
Bostick said, you know, hey, maybe we'll do 50 basis points.
The next two times than kind of pause and I think that was a trial
balloon to kind of indicate see how the markets going to react if and
when they reverse course but to do roll out a new system, they're
going to need some kind of Crisis but there we've been saying this for
a long time.
So this is a major convergence.
That's
In right now where the FED is going to have to choose between
sacrificing the dollar and allowing inflation to run hot or crushing
the economy by fighting inflation.
And you know all of historical precedent suggests that they always
choose to sacrifice the dollar or allow inflation to run hot as
opposed to letting you know the economy, tanked on their watch where
they get all the blame.
So we're seeing that come.
We're coming to a crossroads right here, right now in the next few
months.
We're going to have to make that decision, you know, do they let
interest rates continue to run and crush the housing market, crash the
stock market, you know, crush the debt.
It's, or do they pivot and start buying up those treasuries, and let
allow inflation to run.
Even hotter than we've seen.
The government always feels like they have to do something.
Instead of letting the free market solve things, which would obviously
be the best solution.
Just let the free market work.
It would sort through these things but a couple thoughts.
So, so they're pretty much saying, hey, you know, we'll just, we're
going to buy low and we're going to sell High simple as that.
Well, I mean, there's Wall Street professionals who dedicate their
entire life to doing just that in our fail at it, so
Hey, we're just going to buy low, sell high.
If it were that easy more people would be doing it.
But then you can go back through out any government program.
Whenever the government declares war on something.
You can almost guarantee that you're going to get the exact opposite
effect.
For example, back in the 70s.
They created the department of energy to stabilize oil prices.
I mean, oil prices have been pretty darn stable for decades and then
look for oil prices since the 70s, you know, war on poverty.
What's happened since then since
They declare war on poverty.
We have more power is MM.
What another crazy thing is, every time they declare war on something.
They print a whole bunch of money.
Yes.
Yeah.
And they get the exact opposite desired effect.
I mean, it's like everything they say.
You can just take the opposite Patriot Act.
You know, I don't like it too in the weeds here.
But you know, like that's the exact opposite of patriotism, you know,
if your love freedom and conscience and things like that, but it's
always the opposite of what they say.
So that's my initial thoughts on this task force.
I hadn't heard.
about that not to get too gloomy, but I
did.
You which in this case is zero because there's not any metal content
or anything, just paper.
However, you know, you and I both know that they've got another system
ready to roll out when the time is, right.
So I don't think you know, I think it will see something new before we
see currency go to zero.
And unfortunately, you know, these kind of end of Empires or currency
regimes usually end in war.
It's a scapegoat provides a scapegoat for them.
You know, these people aren't stupid.
So, you know that's likely coming but to be on the brighter side.
active strategy, you know, a lot of people know this stuff are at the
things we're talking about, but
A lot of people don't put as much thought, I think as they should
into, what are you going to do?
What is your strategy?
You need to have a specific strategy of what asset classes.
Do you have a name?
You want to own one?
Long-term exit strategy.
Do you want to trade in and out?
Do you want to have a simple Buy and Hold?
These are all things that we should be thinking about and as as
opposed to, you know, talking about the problems all the time.
What should you do a great job.
So first of all with gold specifically on the chart, it was March 8th,
just caught a couple months ago that we marked that 2078 dollar high.
And that's when everyone and their brother wanted to buy gold and gold
stocks.
You see it all over Twitter and social media.
And, you know, II actually short, it is right there as a short-term.
Grade saying, hey, we're due for a pullback and all I wanted to see
was a higher high or excuse me, a higher low.
The previous low was, 1780 the low on this most recent little dip is
1785.
Such a higher low.
So we are still in an uptrend in Gold.
So the trend is intact.
It feels worse than it actually is and gold specifically, but as far
as triggers, I think the next probable, one will be the FED reverse
reversal or pivot back to more easy money, but I think, you know, the
big catalyst.
I'm not sure when this happens is when the FED tries to intervene, and
it doesn't work.
Let's say, you know, interest rates start running higher and they
intervene and say, hey, we're going to start buying treasuries again
to, you know, bring interest rates down or prop up the stock market or
whatever, and it has the exact opposite effect.
Well, I think that's the moment that, you know, you run, not walk to
get some physical metal.
If you don't have any control, what you can control, worry, you know,
but don't worry.
About things that are out of your control.
There's a lot of things that were just you you and I have no power to
control.
So why waste our time and energy focusing on that, what we can,
instead be focused on building resilience and learning how to prosper,
you can prosper in these environment.
We don't want to sound Doom and Gloom e.
There's ways to prosper to be a blessing for your family and other
people.
And that's what we focus on and it's what you focus on.