so you say in the memo and it's more or
less what you just described that one
needs to evaluate the price change
against the degree to which the
fundamentals have worsened right that's
impossible right now it is impossible so
why not evaluate the price change
against the degree of uncertainty
because that's where we were the last
time you wrote a memo called nobody
knows right we were on the brink of the
economic collapse that followed the
bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers now if you
went liquid right after Lehman Brothers
went bankrupt and then you waited to buy
you did relatively well it was a whole
lot easier to sell in September than it
was to sell in November or December why
not do the same thing now I'm not sure I
fought with that I don't think it was
easier to sell everybody wanted to sell
the competition was on the selling side
the easy part was buying and well things
got worse things went further down okay
yes well I don't think in terms of days
and weeks so you have me at a
disadvantage but I mean directionally
the the question is you know are things
cheap or rich now as you say it's
impossible to say but on the other hand
you know I've been coming on your show
for a couple years saying that I don't
know a couple of saying I thought things
were steep there was a lot of
risk-taking going on things were priced
for perfection oak tree was exercising
the optimism we were being cautious and
it was hard to buy things for less than
they're worth it was hard to get a
bargain that was the recurring theme now
we can't really be too doctrinaire about
whether things are cheaper rich but we
know they're a heck of a lot cheaper
than they were two weeks ago and we know
that there is panic and by the way when
I say 12% that's the overall you we know
that there are great exceptions and one
of the things is that in times of chaos
investors fail to make fine distinctions
so things go down more than they should
and less than they should we we have an
opportunity we think to find the things
that have gone down more than
it's a better climate for getting
bargains today than it was two months
ago some people want to wait for the
bottom well is it better to buy now if
you see a bargain than to wait for the
bottom well I could ask you what is the
bottom Eric and I have no idea well know
that it's easy the bottom is the day
before it starts going up but how do you
know right that's why the bottom is only
judged in retrospect so I think that and
you know the book that you meant the
plug mastering the market cycle has a
lot about the this idea of waiting for
the bottom you never know when you're at
the bottom but you might have a feeling
that something's cheap and if it's cheap
you should buy it if it goes down more
ie that wasn't the buy it bottom if it
goes down more buy some more and keep
your nerve and and continue down as long
as your assessment is right Howard
people want to know is oak tree out
there right now catching falling knives
well we're certainly buying yes we're
certainly buying I mean if you if you're
a distress investor Urich you you you
must turn more aggressive when you're
given good chances I'm not saying this
is the bottom but I this is certainly a
time to do some buying