A lot of fans have pointed out that Kai Havertz would be an ideal signing for Liverpool.
We asked Rafa Honigstein, The Athletic’s German football expert, what he thought.
“Well I think Kai Havertz can work in any team, such is his technical quality, such
is his adaptability across a variety of positions and roles in attacking departments. But I
think he’d be best used in a number 10 role in a team that dominates the ball and has
a slightly slower approach. I think Liverpool’s current system, which has of course worked
so well, with a very functional, dynamic midfield, and then three strikers, doesn’t necessarily
provide a natural point of entry for him. As I said, I think he is able to do it, there
and in any team, but I see others teams as slightly more suitable, stylistically, for
him.”
Liverpool do dominate possession, averaging 63.1%, second in the league after Manchester
City. But their approach is more direct – they dominate more as a function of being better
than most teams, and teams sitting off against them, rather than because they want to build
slowly. Liverpool play a lot of long passes, too – attempting the most passes over 25
metres and completing the second most in the league. This is because Liverpool are direct,
looking to free the full backs to play cross field passes to the quick wide players, or
to play in the full backs or wide attackers behind the opposition defence.
In the last two years the creative onus at Liverpool has passed to those full backs.
This season, after 30 games, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson combined have 35.8% of
Liverpool’s assists. Last season, it was 41.8%. And this season, the attacking trident
of Roberto Firmino, Mo Salah, and Sadio Mane have 37.7% of the remainder. That’s 73.6%
of all Liverpool’s assists coming either from the full backs or from the three main
attackers.
Alexander-Arnold and Robertson have also combined to contribute 30.2% of Liverpool’s Shot-Creating
Actions, meaning that they have contributed one of the two attacking actions that lead
immediately to a shot, such as a pass or dribble.
Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino between them combined for 34.7% of the remainder.
Between them, six Liverpool central midfielders, including Henderson and Wijnaldum, have only
contributed 25.7%. Liverpool’s midfield is functional, there to support attacks but
largely to win back the ball, shield the side from counters, and, especially without Oxlade-Chamberlain,
is not especially involved in attacks in comparison to other top sides.
Liverpool are not a team who probe around the opposition box with a creative 10 pulling
the strings. Instead, they want to progress the ball rapidly and vertically, bypassing
the opposition defence with quick, sometimes long, passing and then running in behind.
Kai Havertz’s biggest issue is that he is extremely good at a lot of things. This makes
it hard to identify his best position – he can function as a striker, dropping off and
linking play, while using his height to win aerial balls. His finishing is good, too,
especially running onto chances to tuck it past an advancing keeper.
This is why he’s been linked with Liverpool: as a potential replacement for 28 year-old
Roberto Firmino. But Havertz is arguably better as a 10, albeit one with the pace – he is
extremely fast – and dynamism to break into the box as a second striker. Havertz’s positional
flexibility doesn’t help narrow things down, either – he’s played as a 10 in a 4-2-3-1,
as a right inside forward in a 3-4-3, as well as playing as a striker in both formations.
Havertz’s creativity is, if not an underrated part of his game, at least one obscured by
his excellent scoring rate. He’s joint-sixth in the Bundesliga for Shot-Creating Actions,
accounting for 15% of all Bayer Leverkusen’s, and of the top eight players in the league
for SCA, he’s fourth for combined goals plus assists.
And that’s despite having a pretty slow first half of the season. Since the restart
on Matchday 26, Havertz has accelerated further, scoring six of his 12 goals.
Havertz’s great skill is receiving the ball between the lines and then playing passes
that free his dynamic, attacking teammates. But he also has the speed and positional sense
to then get into the box himself, adding a goal-scoring threat to his creative passing.
This is why his future probably is in the 10 slot, where his physicality, allied with
his passing and footballing intelligence, will most likely see him succeed with a top
team.
So, for all his undoubted ability, Havertz to Liverpool probably doesn’t make sense.
He injects dynamism with passing and running – but Liverpool don’t look for that kind
of dynamism from their midfield and they generally don’t use a 10 anyway. He could play the
Firmino role, but that would remove his ability to drive forwards from attacking midfield;
he’s most dangerous taking the ball in space and then driving forwards, not dropping off.
Havertz would work best at a team that uses a 10, or at least the kind of staggered midfield
three that would allow him to break forwards from a deep position. Bayern Munich, perhaps
Real Madrid if they transition in the next season towards a Casemiro plus one double
pivot, even Manchester City, where the central midfielders either side of Fernandinho or
Rodri play in the space between the lines and look to break forwards.
All of these are top level teams whose approach suits Havertz better than Liverpool’s.
Although it's worth pointing out that his quality is such that he could play wherever he wants.