Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for May to July 2023.
The coming months are likely to be drier than usual for most areas.
The northern wet season is almost at its end, and we're at El Niño WATCH.
Let's look at recent conditions.
Large areas in the west and south had heavy rainfall after Tropical
Cyclone Ilsa crossed Western Australia's Pilbara Coast on the 14th of April.
Ilsa broke Australian records with a 10-minute sustained wind
speed of 218 kilometres per hour.
Pardoo Roadhouse and surrounding stations in the state's north-west reported major damage.
Reaching Category 5 strength, this was the strongest cyclone to make landfall in the
Australian region since Tropical Cyclone Marcia in February 2015.
Remnants of this system moved inland through to South Australia and Victoria.
Widespread areas had more than 50 mm of rainfall.
This is expected to help the winter crop planting season.
Areas with below average rainfall this month include part of Western Australia, Queensland, New South Wales and Tasmania.
This wet season has seen above average rainfall across the north since last October.
Parts of the south-east have also had more rainfall than usual during this time.
But south-eastern Queensland, and some parts of the south, had below average
rainfall between October and April.
April has been warmer than usual in parts of the south and the north.
New record-high April daily temperatures were set at many sites along the Queensland coast,
including Gladstone, Rockhampton and Cairns.
Temperatures were down overall in large areas of Western Australia.
Wide areas have well above average soil moisture levels,
especially in areas with recent rainfall.
There has been noticeable drying of soils around the northern Murray–Darling Basin.
At the end of the northern wet season, most water storages in the north are full.
Water storages along the east remain around 90%.
However, storages are down to 50% and below in some locations.
The long-range forecast for May to July shows …
Almost all areas are likely to be drier than usual over the coming months.
May is the start of the northern dry season, where average rainfall is 25 mm or less for May to July.
Large areas of Australia have more than double the chance of unusually low rainfall.
Even with drier than average conditions forecast, high stream flows are likely
over the coming months in the north and the south-east, including northern Tasmania.
In some areas though, river levels are falling and returning to average levels.
Warmer than usual days are likely for most areas between May and July.
Southern areas have an increased risk of unusually warm temperatures for this time of year.
So what's likely to influence our climate over the coming months?
We remain at El Niño WATCH as there are signs that El Niño may form later this year.
Conditions in the Pacific Ocean remain neutral, neither El Niño nor La Niña.
There are signs from our climate models that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may
develop to our west in the coming months.
This increases the chance of below average rainfall for central and southern Australia in winter and spring.
So, in summary, this May to July we're likely to see:
below average rainfall in most areas
warmer days than usual, and
higher than average stream
flows in the north and south-east.
You can find the latest long-range forecasts
and warnings on the Bureau's website.
Bye for now.