I don't feel so good, Theory Man!
I don't want to go,
please don't let me go.
Don't be afraid, Fact Boy!
You have so much to live for!
A new movie next year, and a whole franchise ahead of you,
I'm sure you're gonna be fine.
*death*
Alright, who's got the time rock, or soul rock,
or whatever BS we're using to reverse this thing?
*Film Theory Avengers intro*
Hello internet! Welcome to Film Theory!
Where you don't have to worry about our predictions spoiling the movie,
because they're always so very, very wrong.
So, "Avengers: Endgame" is coming out real soon,
sooner than I expected, actually.
Was it just me, or did the wait for this thing go by super fast?
I suppose it helps when you have six other major superhero movie releases
crammed into the year that we spent waiting.
Anyway we all know how this is gonna go, right?
Classic Avengers assemble one last time with the help of some new friends,
they train, they suit up,
they hop through the time portals in the Quantum Realm a bit,
and ultimately end up fighting Thanos,
Ant-Man crawls up his butt,
expands,
bada-bing bada-boom,
purple Shrek is defeated,
Oh look, we found ourselves some shiny stones,
let's turn back time and/or find dead people trapped in the orange one,
Yay, everyone's back together, except for those that we lost along the way.
Let's scatter and/or destroy these things, roll credits!
Oh hey, Spider-Man will return, in literally three months.
Where's my paycheck, Disney?
This sort of excellent screenwriting deserves some credit.
But all joking aside, I hope it's good.
I think part of me is a bit nervous,
just because we all know that so many of these characters are coming back,
and any time you open up a world to time vortexes,
and then also time stones,
that are so overpowered and have the ability to rewrite everything that came before,
I just worry that it'll cheapen the story.
I'm all aboard for time-traveling hijinks.
It's just when these movies are so rooted in reality for so much of the time,
once you start introducing multiple devices
that can retcon everything that came before,
it becomes too easy.
It starts to feel like nothing may really matter.
Retcons are kinda lame sometimes.
Which is why today, I want to focus on the deaths that'll be permanent.
Sure, lots of The Snappening victims are gonna come back to life,
but who in the main cast is gonna stay dead at the end of "Endgame"?
Most fans, myself included, consider it incredibly likely
that at least one of our favorite heroes won't be going on to Phase Four,
but I wasn't gonna take "consider it incredibly likely" for an answer.
So I scoured the MCU, the comic universes, and the web,
looking for any clues I could as to who may or may not be continuing on afterwards.
And in the process, I feel reasonably confident as to who will end up being the biggest surprise,
and permanent deaths, by the end of "Endgame".
So let's not waste any more time,
this movie is about to come out,
and let's just face it,
"I just love killing!"
Now it's escaped no one's notice that, of all The Snappening victims,
the original Avengers all were left untouched.
It's funny how a random dispassionate culling of the world will do something like that.
The odds of all six people surviving
that coin flip would be like 1.5%.
Could it possibly be connected to the fact that most of the original Avengers' contracts are coming up?
According to Captain America himself last year around the release of "Infinity War",
a lot of their contracts were indeed expiring after "Endgame".
"A lot of our contracts are through."
"Myself, Downey, Hemsworth, we all kind of started- well, roughly at the same time,"
"and I think we all, through Avengers 4, kinda wrap it up."
"I don't know what's next, by 2019, that's it."
With so many contracts set to expire,
it seems like a good chance for Disney to cut and run,
and start in with some new actors.
So, let's start by looking at all these guys.
Let's take out what I consider two easy ones first,
Hulk will survive.
Actor Mark Ruffalo has been very public that he's in a 6-film contract,
and since cameos don't count towards the total,
"Endgame" will be only his fifth,
leaving at least one more before the Jolly Green Giant goes away.
Thor will also live.
Not only have his films been building in popularity,
(and in profits)
since he first hit the big screen,
but from a story standpoint, dying would defeat his narrative purpose.
In "Infinity War" we see Thor at his lowest of low points,
having lost most of the Asgardians,
as well as the last of his family and friends, to Thanos' attacks.
He's ready to lay down his life,
because he feels like there's nothing left to lose.
"But I'm 1500 years old."
"I'm only alive because fate wants me alive."
"And what if you're wrong?"
"Well, if I'm wrong then, what more can I lose?"
He's alone, and by the end of the movie even his belief in fate willing him to finish off Thanos has let him down.
Which means that his "Endgame" arc will have to see him making peace with the losses of his past,
(something that'll be especially powerful, if this movie does indeed involve a lot of time travel)
and then moving on to find a new family,
people to live with, and for.
We already see his important connection with Captain Marvel in the trailers,
and we know based on the "Avenge the Fallen" posters,
that Valkyrie from "Thor:Ragnarok" is in here too.
So already, Thor is gonna be finding himself new friends that'll help pave the way to his new beginning.
So those to me are the easy calls.
Now this may come as a surprise, but of all the characters in the MCU,
I actually give Black Widow, Natasha Romanoff, the lowest chance of survival.
Now some of you might be screaming at the screen already,
"How can you say that Black Widow is gonna die,"
"when we know that there's a Black Widow movie coming out?"
Well, according to MCU Cosmic and That Hashtag Show,
the Black Widow movie is confirmed to be a prequel, set in the late 90s and early 2000s.
And if the Black Widow solo project is gonna be a prequel,
well then that leaves Natasha's fate totally up in the air.
Plus, I'm sure if Black Widow ultimately has a huge hero moment in "Endgame",
it finally gets her the recognition that she's been lacking as a part of his team,
thereby making her solo outing a much better bet,
and much more exciting for audiences to seek out,
(and subscribe to Disney+ in order to see).
Yay!
Consuming media in 2019!
OK, so she can die, but that doesn't necessarily mean she has to die.
So, let's look at her narrative.
Right now, she is in the perfect position to make a huge self-sacrifice.
It's established early on in the first "Avengers" movie that Natasha has:
"I got red in my ledger."
to clear.
And choosing to sacrifice yourself to save half the universe would certainly do that.
She would also need to sacrifice herself for a purpose that no one else is able to fill.
I mean she describes herself as someone with:
"I have a very specific skillset."
But most of those skills aren't particularly helpful when you're surrounded by gods and tech geniuses.
So what does Black Widow have that's different than all the rest?
Well, she has a relationship with Bruce Banner.
Think about this: Black Widow and Bruce Banner's connection comes out of nowhere in "Age of Ultron".
"What are you doing?"
"I'm running with it."
"With you."
She's the only person who is able to control the appearance of the Hulk.
"I adore you."
"But I need the other guy."
And, while it's established in "Age of Ultron",
it doesn't go away in future movies either.
In "Ragnarok", Black Widow's Quinjet recording reminds the audience of their relationship.
Clearly, this out-of-nowhere love connection should be leading to a payoff somewhere,
and what do we see in "Infinity War"?
Bruce struggling to unleash the Hulk,
another plot line that seems pretty random.
Random, until you consider the one thing that could get Bruce to lose his cool- losing Natasha.
She dies, which causes Bruce to Hulk out once again in time for yet another round against Thanos.
And this idea isn't just coming out of nowhere, either.
Marvel likes to test out ideas for the MCU in their comics first,
and in Secret Empire #7,
Natasha makes the ultimate sacrifice to prevent Miles Morales from fulfilling a prophecy of killing Captain America.
Now obviously that's a completely different scenario,
but what's important here is that Black Widow has shown that she's willing to sacrifice herself,
to stop the worst possible timelines from playing out.
So based on all of that, I'd say she's dead.
Living on in that paywall-gated prequel heaven known as Disney+.
How about Cap?
Well, he hasn't been all that good at keeping secrets.
In October, Captain America actor Chris Evans tweeted:
"Officially wrapped on Avengers 4."
"It was an emotional day to say the least."
"Playing this role over the last 8 years has been an honor."
"Thank you for the memories! Eternally grateful."
If that doesn't sound like a final farewell to the character, well, I don't know what does.
Director Joe Russo tried to cover it up in a follow-up interview saying:
"He tweeted it out, but little does he know, he's not done yet!"
But Chris Evans seems pretty darn eager to get out of the MCU.
And his imminent departure keeps coming up in the press.
He's gone on record saying that he's eager to start directing,
and it seems like Disney might be giving him that opportunity, again on Disney+.
And here he is again at a press conference for "Endgame", talking like he's done with the series.
"The completion of the arc."
"I feel like that's safe to say, right?"
So his actor seems ready to move on,
his contract seems ready to move on,
heck, Disney seems ready to move on,
but let's take his advice and actually look at his story arc,
because self-sacrifice is the entire theme of his character in this story.
Steve Rogers starts the series ready to give his life for his country, and isn't allowed to.
That's the whole gist of "The First Avenger".
"Boy, a lot of guys getting killed over there."
"Kinda makes you think twice about enlisting, huh?"
"Nope."
He wants to enlist in the army, but can't.
But, by the end of the first movie,
he's not only the perfect soldier,
he finally gets to make that sacrifice.
He gives up his life in order to defeat Red Skull.
No one expects him to wake up from the ice, but he does.
Except now, he's no longer the idealist that he once was.
"A family, stability... the guy who wanted all that went into the ice 75 years ago."
"I think someone else came out."
In the modern day, he learns that his best friend Bucky's been brainwashed into an assassin,
and his subsequent quest to rescue him,
and by proxy, the only connection he has to his past,
leads Steve to become disillusioned and go rogue in "Civil War".
This, in turn, gets him to change his viewpoint on the world.
He no longer stands for sacrificing for the good of the many,
or the good of a faceless country.
Instead, he's only focused on sacrificing for the good of the individual.
In "Infinity War", we outright hear him say:
"We don't trade lives, Vision."
To which Vision responds:
"Captain, 70 years ago you laid down your life to save how many millions of people."
"Tell me- why is this any different?"
It's not any different.
Don't try to out logic a supercomputer powered by a magic stone there, Cap.
But Captain America has lost everything, and everyone that he's loved,
since making that fateful decision to self-sacrifice in his first movie.
And the way the world has treated his best friend in the aftermath of the war,
hasn't made him particularly eager to make that same sacrifice again.
Which is why when we enter "Endgame",
Captain America has to give his own life.
To complete his arc,
he has to make that first sacrifice again,
only now he's older, and wiser, and more experienced.
He's knowing what he's getting himself into,
and he's still willing to do it anyway.
He's done everything to protect his friend Bucky,
except forgiven one thing: giving up his own life.
He's not giving it up because he has nothing to live for,
he's giving it up because he wants to give his second chance at life to a friend.
A friend who's been brainwashed, and persecuted for crimes that he had no control in committing.
Oh, and Bucky has four movies in the contract,
so, it's a good chance to hand off the old Captain America baton, or - shield.
Which leads us to, perhaps the biggest question mark in my mind: Tony Stark
You can't talk Cap without also covering his counterpart in these movies.
Tony was our first protagonist in the MCU way back in 2007's "Iron Man",
and since then he's been one of the franchise's most consistent characters,
with 9 big-screen appearances,
which even beats out Nick Fury's 8.
It's pretty darn great if you're his actor Robert Downey Jr,
Who reportedly earns around 10 million dollars,
plus 2.5 percent of profits,
for each movie that he's in.
I mean, I know that Stark's a billionaire,
but good old RDJ ain't doing too bad for himself either.
It's not all that hard to play the role of a super-rich billionaire,
when you're a super rich hundred-millionaire.
That said, even though he's an expensive addition to those cast lists,
he's also a profitable one.
According to adjusted ticket earnings from Box Office Mojo,
Marvel films that include Tony Stark make an average of 408 million dollars,
while films without him make an average of only 290 million.
And sure, a lot of those are the big team-up movies,
but even when you remove them,
his movies still average nearly 70 million dollars more in earnings.
Killing him off, from a financial standpoint at least, would be a bad decision.
But that's business.
What about what really matters: Killing him off from a narrative standpoint.
"Infinity War", for all its characters,
sets up a primary rivalry between Tony and Thanos.
It seemed odd to me, in a movie where Thanos literally goes toe to toe with gods and wizards,
that the one man Thanos seems to truly respect is Tony.
As he says himself, they're both cursed with knowledge.
"You know me?"
"I do. You're not the only one cursed with knowledge."
They both see themselves as protectors.
They're both arrogant.
They're both powerful and smart.
From a storytelling standpoint, Thanos and Tony are clearly foils of one another.
They are meant to be a duality.
They are meant to be compared and contrasted,
to show off the deeper nuances of the characters within each other.
And as such, one other key parallel that gets set up in "Infinity War",
that narratively should pay off in "Endgame",
is a comparison of them as fathers.
Let me explain.
From a story perspective, Tony's already gone through extensive character development throughout the series.
When we first met Tony, he was selfish, drunk,
and completely unconcerned about the consequences of his own actions.
As time has gone on, though,
we see him not only learn to work well with others,
but also learn that he isn't immortal.
Seeing that there's a wider universe of intergalactic threats ready to take him down in "Avengers",
is what causes the paranoia that we see manifested in "Iron Man 3".
"Nothing's been the same since New York."
"Gods, aliens, other dimensions, I'm just a man in a can."
"But honey, I can't sleep."
"Threat is imminent and I have to protect the one thing I can't live without, that's you."
The failure of Ultron knocks him down yet another peg,
leading him to make the very un-Tony-like decision,
of signing away his rights as a superhero over to the government,
as part of the Sokovia Accords in "Civil War".
"Oh, that's Charles Spencer by the way."
"He wanted to make a difference, I suppose."
"I mean, we won't know, because we dropped a building on him while we were kicking ass."
Notice that it's the death of a child that gets him to change.
Later on, in "Spider-Man: Homecoming" we see him slide into a father role for Peter Parker,
and now look at the opening scene for Tony in "Infinity War".
He and Pepper are having an argument about kids.
"Last night I dreamt we had a kid."
"So you woke up, and thought that we were..."
"Expecting."
"If you wanted to have a kid, you wouldn't have done that."
"I know I had the surgery, I'm just trying to protect us."
"You don't need that."
Tony wants to be a father,
but can't separate himself from constantly putting himself at risk for those that he loves.
It's noble, but it's also not right
According to Pepper, kids need a father and not a galactic defender.
Does that sound familiar?
Cut to Thanos.
He actually IS a father.
In fact, all of "Infinity War" is about his relationship to his kids,
and how in his quest to "save the galaxy",
he's willing to sacrifice them for what he believes is his destiny.
"In order to take the stone, you must lose that which you love."
"I ignored my destiny once."
"I cannot do that again."
"Even for you."
He is not a good model of fatherhood.
He represents the path that Tony is currently on at the beginning of "Infinity War",
a father who loses focus on his family for a greater good.
And so Tony's arc in these two movies,
as a foil to Thanos, and as someone who is set up in his first scene talking about fatherhood,
his arc should be about realizing what it takes to be a good father,
so that he and Pepper can move on, and have a family at the end of these movies.
And there are two key pieces of evidence that support that this is the arc that he's currently on.
The first we've already seen- losing Peter Parker on Titan.
Peter Parker is his surrogate son.
You think it's a coincidence that this story would put them on Titan together?
That Peter would die in Tony's arms?
It's so Tony can experience the loss of a child.
The knowledge that Iron Man was powerless to prevent the loss of someone that he saw as a son,
someone that he loved and appreciated,
but didn't spend enough time with.
And then was just gone.
But notice the only other person left on Titan with him - Nebula.
She will be Tony's second main turning point.
Not only will her robot parts be useful in getting the two back to Earth,
but as the abused daughter of Thanos,
she'll be able to show Tony what it's like to be the child of a man who is bent on defending the galaxy.
So in order to complete his arc, Tony has to survive.
He has to become a father,
he has to learn from Thanos' mistakes,
and realize that you don't have to be a literal hero to be a super hero to your family.
As such, he'll give up being Iron Man,
but live on to help, supervise, whatever.
In the end, he'll finally be able to fulfill the wish from the end of "Age of Ultron".
"It's time for me to tap out."
"Maybe I should take a page out of Barton's book and build Pepper a farm, hope nobody blows it up."
"The simple life."
So, there you have it.
As far as smaller deaths,
I think that Nebula and War Machine actually have a good chance of biting the dust,
but that's just a gut feeling.
Will I be right?
Will I be wrong?
Who do you have bets on dying during the endgame?
Place your bets down in the comments,
and then come back to brag about how you got everything right,
next week when the movie actually premieres.
(Protip- you can just edit your comment to make it look like you were right all along)
Unfortunately for me though, this video lives on and can't be edited,
so when I'm wrong, I'm really wrong,
and I'm wrong forever.
Which kinda sucks,
but also, that's why I always remind you,
it's just a theory!
A Film Theory!
Aaaand cut!
*Film Theory Avengers outro*