Judy: With a Russia's invasion
of Ukraine, the pandemic, the
climate crisis and extreme
political polarization, the
dangers the world is facing
right now are stark and how we
respond is critical.
Ian Bremmer runs the eurasia
group, a leading global risk
research and consulting firm and
he explores the most pressing
issues and solutions in his new
book, the power of crisis -- how
three threats and our response
will change the world.
Ian Bremmer, welcome back to the
newshour.
Congratulations on this book.
You have been focused on the
collapse of the international
governing order.
The fact that countries are not
working together the way they
should and yet we have seen with
Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
nato has come together and the
west has come together, is this
the exception that proves the
rule?
>> I would not say it is an
exception but a response to the
crises that continue to emerge
as the international order
starts raking down and snapping
back.
I wish Vladimir Putin had read a
draft of the book because he
clearly thought that the united
States and nato and the west
would be incapable of
responding.
He has seen what has happened in
Afghanistan and in Iraq, and he
saw January 6 in the united
States and he saw a lack of
reaction to his invasion in
Georgia but this decision to
fundamentally try to usurp a
democratic government in Ukraine
was absolutely a step too far
and the response internationally
has been extraordinary and has
made the west stronger than it
was before Vladimir Putin
invaded on February 24.
Judy: But before this happened
and the reaction to it, one of
your principal concerns was that
the world was not well-equipped
to deal with some of the big,
mega crises that the world is
facing.
>> What has basically been
happening is both the united
States and other advanced
industrial democracies around
the world have seen the populism
, the unwillingness to be global
policeman, the unwillingness to
lead on global trade and the
incapacity to be the world's
leading democracy and that --
and as that happens, you see a
breakdown in institutions.
You see the growth in crises.
Over the last three decades, we
have watched as our institutions
at home and abroad have
gradually eroded.
And feeling like we cannot do
anything about it.
The purpose of this book is that
the status quo is not going to
get you there but as these
crises emerge, and we are in a
target rich environment for
these.
It is not just the Russian
invasion.
It is climate change on the
pandemic.
That is what is going to lead to
a step function to force
countries to respond with new
institutions, strengthened
leadership.
It is the only way to get it
done in this environment.
Judy: Let's take these
particular crises one by one
starting with public health.
The global health emergencies
like the one we are still living
through right now.
Where do you see the mechanism,
the solution that will prepare
the world to be in a better
place at the next pandemic?
>> Probably the weakest of the
crises to respond in part
because it built less trust with
the United States and China.
China covered it up to begin
with and leading the united
States to even leave the world
health organization in the
middle of a pandemic.
While the United States was
focused on it in a strong way in
the early days, relatively soon
on with the vaccines and
therapeutics, a lot of Americans
felt it was no longer as much of
a crisis for them and it became
politicized.
One part of the world that took
the lessons on board of the
pandemic was the European union
in terms of providing as of
economic support from the
wealthy countries to the poor
countries like a European
Marshall plan.
They learned from the Eurozone
crisis of 2008 and 2010 and also
in taking on board and you
function for vaccine acquisition
and distribution, everyone got
them at the same time.
The eu leaves the crisis
stronger than it came in.
The U.S. Leaves it more divided.
U.s.-china relationship is more
divided.
Judy: Climate change -- massive
questions and crises facing the
world.
Where do you see the mechanism
to bring countries together to
address this?
>> Much more like the Russia
crisis where the fact that
everyone recognizes that this is
a big problem that's them on the
same side -- gets them on the
same side of the issue.
The fact is that climate
represents what I call a
goldilocks crisis, not so big
that we crawl ourselves into a
circle and wait for the end but
not so small that we keep
behaving the way we used to
Judy: What makes you believe
that the kind of solution you're
talking about, anything close to
that, can be agreed on when the
world is -- yes, we are seeing
the west come together when it
comes to Ukraine but again, so
much of the rest of the world is
split over the very issues you
have described and so much more
-- rich versus poor, have and
have not and on down the list?
>> What happens with even a
crisis like Russia is it creates
more interdependence.
At the beginning of the Russia
crisis, a lot of people said --
why are you saying this is so
important when you don't look at
Syria or Somalia?
It is only because it is white
Europeans.
That is why you care.
That is not true.
This is a much bigger crisis.
It is because of the
interdependence of the global
economy.
It is the food, the fertilizer
and the energy will make this a
much bigger crisis all over the
world and that forces the world
to take it seriously.
It reflects the interdependence
that we may not like what we
need.
Judy: One final question and
this is not in your boat but it
is much related to covid and how
China has responded by these
massive lockdowns of entire
cities and regions.
Whether that specific strategy
works or not, what effect do you
see that having on the Chinese
economy and frankly on whether
president XI remains secure in
power?
>> Sometimes the reason you
don't respond a crisis is
because your country is too
strong and your institutions are
too resilient for it to bother
you.
Waste saw this in the united
States even after the elections
and the events of January 6.
A year later, people are
shrugging their shoulders about
it.
In China, they will probably
experience next to 0% growth.
They have had massive draconian
shutdowns.
The reason they are doing it and
refusing help from the west,
refusing mrna vaccines that
would make a difference on the
ground is because they know they
can't.
There is not the challenge
domestically to Jie Zheng ping.
That is what makes it harder for
a country like China to respond
effectively and internationally
to a global crisis.
Judy: On that note, Ian Bremmer,
thank you so much.
How three threats and our
response will change the world.
Thank you.
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