A NEW STUDY STRONGLY LINKS OPPOSITION TO RISING
DIVERSITY WITHIN THE UNITED STATES WITH SUPPORT FOR DONALD
TRUMP IN LAST YEAR'S ELECTION.
WHAT WE HAVE YEAR HERE IS AN
ACADEMIC STUDY WHERE PEOPLE WERE ASKED A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS
ABOUT WHAT THEY THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN AS MORE DIVERSITY
ENTERS INTO DIFFERENT PARTS OF
AMERICAN LIFE.
AND USING THE ANSWERS THEY CONSTRUCTED A SCALE
ON HOW POSITIVELY OR NEGATIVELY YOU VIEW RISING DIVERSITY IN THE
COUNTRY.
THEY FOUND INTERESTING RESULTS WHEN YOU MAP THAT ON
RECENT POLITICAL EVENTS.
LET'S LOOK AT HOW A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT GROUPS DEFER.
UC DEMOCRATS ARE MORE POSITIVE THAN
DEMOCRATS.
SO THAT
IS INTERESTING, BUT THAT IS NOT THE
MOST.
LET'S BRING UP THE NEXT
CHART.
WHAT YOU HAVE HERE IS THE CHANCE THAT SOMEBODY WHO VOTED
FOR OBAMA WOULD THEN GO ON TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP.
WHEN YOU
HAVE IS A MORE POSITIVE VIEW OF DIVERSITY ON THE LEFT, AND IT
GETS MORE NEGATIVE TO THE RIGHT.
ALSO AS YOU GO TO THE RIGHT THE
ODDS THAT AN OBAMA VOTER WOULD
SWITCH OVER TO TRUMP HAS A MASSIVE EFFECT ON THEIR
LIKELIHOOD, RISING FROM ALMOST A
0% CHANCE TO UP TO .5.
THERE WERE NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT
COULD POSSIBLY BE AFFECTED, BUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLE OF
PERCENTAGE WHEN WE'RE TALKING
ABOUT
THE ENTIRE ELECTORATE.
AS THEY GET MORE AND MORE NEGATIVE
WITH RISING DIVERSITY THAT GOES
DOWN TO NOTHING.
WHAT YOU MIGHT SAY IS THIS DOESN'T SEEM ALL
THAT SURPRISING.
ALL YOU ARE SAYING IS THAT REPUBLICANS VIEW
THINGS ONE WAY, AND LIBERALS ANOTHER.
THE CLASSIC DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND
REPUBLICANS.
BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE, THIS IS SOMETHING A
HISTORIC.
HERE YOU WILL SEE THE EFFECT ON TRUMP VOTERS.
FOR
ROMNEY VOTERS AND FOR MCCAIN VOTERS THERE IS A SMALL EFFECT
IN LIKELIHOOD OF SUPPORTING THE CANDIDATE BASED ON YOUR VIEW OF
DIVERSITY.
BUT IT IS FAR AND AWAY A STRONGER EFFECT FOR
DONALD TRUMP.
>> THAT IS NOT SURPRISING EITHER BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE DENY IT.
THE
REASON IS BECAUSE TRUMP RAN THE CAMPAIGN BASED ON THAT.
HE SAID
WE WILL DO A TOTAL AND COMPLETE
SHUTDOWN ON MUSLIMS.
HE SAID WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A WALL TO
KEEP OUT THE LATINOS.
HE QUESTIONED BARACK OBAMA'S
CITIZENSHIP.
THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT YOU EMPHASIZE WHEN
YOU WANT TO ATTRACT VOTERS THAT
DON'T LIKE DIVERSITY.
I GUESS IN SOME WAYS IT IS CHARITABLE TO
REPUBLICAN VOTERS.
TRUMP VOTERS DISLIKE DIVERSITY MORE THAN A
REGULAR ROMNEY MCCAIN VOTER.
>> THEY ARE CONTROLLING FOR ALL SORTS OF THINGS, EVEN VIEWS ON
IMMIGRATION.
THIS IS NOT SORT OF A GENERALIZED THING ABOUT RACE.
THIS IS SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE CHANGE IN AMERICAN CULTURE AND
BUSINESS THAT WILL COME UP AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASE OF
DIVERSITY.
>> I HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY OF THIS
STUDY.
I DO WANT TO KNOW THAT THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER STUDIES
THAT FOUND VERY DIFFERENT
RESULTS.
I HAVE READ THAT SURGES IN TRUMP SUPPORT TO CORRELATE
WITH WHERE MEDIAN INCOME HAS DECLINED OVER THE YEARS.
IT'S
THE REASON BEHIND HIM GETTING SUPPORT WHERE HE DID.
I DO THINK
THERE ARE ELEMENTS OF TRUTH TO
THIS RESEARCH.
TO TAKE THAT TO MEAN THAT THEY ARE NECESSARILY
MOTIVATED BY RACIAL ANXIETY IS A BIT OF A LEAP.
OBVIOUSLY RACIAL
ANXIETY PLAYS A ROLE HERE.
BUT WHAT I WORRY ABOUT THIS STUDY
AND THE MEANS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THIS IDEA THAT
RACIAL ANXIETY IS MORE DETERMINATIVE OF WHAT HAPPENED
THAN ECONOMIC ANXIETY, IT IS SELF EXCULPATORY IN A
WAY.
HE DID WIN BECAUSE HE WAS ABLE TO SPEAK MORE DIRECTLY TO
THE LOWER SOCIOECONOMIC STRATA IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
>> IT'S NOT ABOUT WHETHER WE CHOOSE TO TAKE THE BLAME FOR
SOMETHING.
WE LOOK AT THE DATA AND WE SEE WHAT IT SAYS.
IF WE
LEARN THE WRONG LESSON FROM AN ELECTION WE CAN CONTINUE TO LOSE
ELECTIONS.
IN TERMS OF YOUR QUESTION ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY
IT'S A VERY GOOD QUESTION.
IT'S NOT ABOUT WHETHER THEY ARE
RIGHTS THAT DIVERSITY WOULD BE A BAD THING.
THEY ARE ALSO
CONTROLLING FOR SOCIOECONOMIC
STATUS.
IT'S ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THAT IS A PREDICTOR OF YOUR
BEHAVIOR.
>> I JUST QUESTION WHETHER THESE PARTICULAR QUESTIONS ARE THE
BEST WAY TO GAUGE SOMEONE'S
ATTITUDE ABOUT THE UTILITY OF DIVERSITY.
THERE IS A QUESTION
HERE ABOUT HOW THERE ARE NOT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH JOBS
FOR EVERYBODY.
THAT WOULD BE ACCURATE AND THE IDEA THAT YOU
WANT TO EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT, TO ME JUST SEEMS LIKE A BIT OF A
STRETCH.
I WOULD WANT TO SEE THIS REPLICATED IN FURTHER
STUDIES.
THE DATA IS IMPORTANT, BUT THIS PARTICULAR INQUIRY TO
ME RAISES QUESTIONS.
>> THAT WAS A GOOD SECOND QUESTION.
BUT IT IS NOT ABOUT
WHETHER THEY ARE RIGHT TO BE ANXIOUS ABOUT DIVERSITY, IN YOUR
CASE YOU ARE SAYING THEY SHOULD
BE.
AND THEY ARE, NOT ABOUT WHETHER THEY ARE MORALLY WRONG TO BE
ANXIOUS ABOUT DIVERSITY.
>>BUT THEY ARE ANXIOUS ABOUT DIVERSITY IN THAT IT LESSENS
THEIR ECONOMIC PROSPECTS.
THEY ARE ANXIOUS ABOUT IT BECAUSE THE
EFFECT OF THAT MORE DIVERSE WORKFORCE WILL MEAN THEY WILL BE
LEFT BEHIND.
WHEN THE HEADLINE
TAKE AWAY IS THAT THEY ARE ANXIOUS ABOUT DIVERSITY AND THAT
CORRELATES WITH SUPPORT FOR TRUNK, THAT MISSES THE
FUNDAMENTAL REASON WHY SOMEBODY
MIGHT RESPOND IN THE AFFIRMATIVE TO ONE OF THESE QUESTIONS.
>> ALSO THE EFFECT ON BUSINESSES, THEY HAVE TO HAVE
SOMETHING LIKE THIS BECAUSE THEY WANT TO GET TO THE ECONOMIC
COMPONENT.
THAT IS WHY THEY ASKED FOR FIVE DIFFERENT
QUESTIONS.
GENERALLY YOU FIND INCREDIBLY HIGH OVERLAPS TO
THESE QUESTIONS.
PEOPLE DON'T TEND TO ANSWER THAT THEY ARE
CONCERNED ABOUT ONE AND NOT THE
OTHER.
THEY TEND TO SPEAK IN PATTERNS.
BUT GOOD CONCERNS AND
THAT IS WHY NO ACADEMIC STUDY
CAN GO ON ITS OWN.
>>HERE
IS THE CONCLUSION THEY REACH, THEY FIND LITTLE EVIDENCE TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT CONCERNS ABOUT TRADE DEALS OR A RIGGED
SYSTEM CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A TRUMP VICTORY.
TO ME IF THAT IS THE TAKE AWAY THAT IS THE WRONG LESSON
LEARNED.
>> ON THAT I MOST AGREE WITH YOU.
>>THEY ARE SPECIFICALLY ASKING PEOPLE ABOUT THAT AND ARE
SHOWING THAT IT DIDN'T INFLUENCE THEIR VOTE.
>>
PEOPLE EXPRESS THEIR DISCONTENT IN A MULTITUDE OF WAYS.
>> I THINK THAT IS THE WRONG CONCLUSION AND IT DOESN'T
INVALIDATE THE STUDY.
I'M GOING TO HAVE TO ADJUDICATE HERE.
I
ACTUALLY AGREE WITH BOTH OF YOU
GUYS.
>> SHOULD WE SING KUMBAYA?
>> IT IS POSSIBLE YOU WILL THINK IF THERE IS MORE DIVERSITY IT IS
A GREAT THING, BUT THERE WILL BE
LESS JOBS.
THAT IS POSSIBLE.
I UNDERSTAND EITHER WAY THEY ARE
TESTING WHAT THEY THINK ABOUT DIVERSITY.
REMEMBER KEEP IN MIND
THAT THESE ARE OBAMA VOTERS.
HOW RACIST CAN THEY BE IF THEY VOTED
FOR THE BLACK GUY.
THE ANSWER IS STILL RACIST, BUT AT THE SAME
TIME YOU CANNOT JUST CONCLUDE IT
IS RACISM BECAUSE IF THEY WERE THAT RACIST THEY WOULDN'T HAVE
VOTED FOR OBAMA IN THE FIRST
PLACE.
>>THEY ARE SAYING IT CAN THEORETICALLY SHIFT A COUPLE OF
PERCENTAGE POINTS, WHICH IN AN ELECTION CAN EXPLAIN THE
DIFFERENCE.
>>WHICH THEN LEADS TO THE OBVIOUS CONCLUSION WHICH IS IT
WAS BOTH.
THAT'S WHY I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THAT HILLARY
CLINTON'S MOST ACCURATE COMMENT IS THE ONE SHE GOT MOST HATE FOR
WHICH IS THE BASKET OF
DEPLORABLE'S COMMENT.
EVERYONE CRITICIZED IT BUT HALF OF TRUMP
VOTERS ARE GUYS WHO DON'T LIKE THE OTHER GUYS.
AND HALF WERE
SUPER MAD ABOUT THE ECONOMY.
THE ECONOMIC SIDE WAS SUPER REAL AND
IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH RACE.
IT IS A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENT FACTORS FOR DIFFERENT PEOPLE.
>> BASICALLY EVERYBODY WOULD SEE THAT IT IS A CONFLUENCE OF
FACTORS.
ONE OF THE CONCLUSIONS
DRAWN IS THAT ECONOMIC ANXIETY WAS NOT A FACTOR.
>> THAT IS AN IMPROPER CONCLUSION FROM THEIR OWN STUDY.
>>WE TALKED ABOUT ONE SECTION.
WHEN THEY SAY THEY DON'T BELIEVE
THE TRADE POLICY HAD AN EFFECT THEY ALSO ASKED THEM QUESTIONS
ABOUT WHAT THEY THINK ABOUT TRADE AND THEY FOUND THOSE
ANSWERS DID NOT PREDICT SUPPORT FOR DONALD TRUMP.
THEY ASKED
SOME QUESTIONS WHETHER THE
SYSTEM IS RIGGED OR SET UP ñ
THAT'S NOT THE SAME QUESTIONS
THEY TALKED ABOUT IN THE EARLIER
PART.
>> I UNDERSTAND THERE ARE DIFFERENT FACTORS INVOLVED HERE.
THERE YOU HAVE A MIX OF WHAT
COULD BE, PROPAGANDA MIXED IN WITH YOUR GUT FEELINGS.
THE
REPUBLICANS FOR A LONG TIME HAVE BEEN DOING PROPAGANDA THAT
ELITES ARE GOOD PEOPLE.
ON THE OTHER HAND TRUMPETED HIT ELITES
IN THIS ELECTION.
BOTTOM LINE IS WHEN YOUR WAGES HAVE NOT GONE
UP, YOU ARE MAD.
SOMEONE CAN COME IN AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THAT, EVEN IF MARKETING GOT YOU TO BELIEVE THAT THE ELITES ARE
FINE.
IT CAN STILL MEAN THAT THEY ARE VOTING BASED ON THEIR
MADNESS, THE FACT THAT THEY ARE MAD, BUT WHEN ASKED THAT
SPECIFIC QUESTION THEY SAY NO, I AM PRO-ELITES.
>>I THINK THE ISSUE MIGHT BE THAT THE STUDY IS BASED ON
POLLING.
THE QUESTIONS ARE
RELATIVELY COMPLICATED AND MULTILAYERED.
NOT EVERYONE
THINKS ABOUT THEIR ECONOMIC ANXIETY IN TERMS THAT ARE EASILY
RELATABLE TO POLLING QUESTIONS.
BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE STUDIES
THAT WERE CONDUCTED IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE ELECTION, THEY
RELIED ON MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME RISING.
>>THE PROBLEM WITH THAT ALSO IS THAT IF YOU ARE SIMPLY LOOKING
AT COUNTY LEVEL DATA YOU ARE NOT COMPLETING COMPLICATED
REGRESSIONS WHERE YOU CAN ACCOUNT FOR OTHER FACTORS.
THAT
MEANS IF YOU LOOK AT THE COUNTY YOU CAN ATTEMPT TO SAY THAT THIS
IS THE EXPLANATION FOR IT BUT YOU HAVE DOZENS OR HUNDREDS OF
VARIABLES THAT COULD BE INFLUENCING THE OUTCOME.
WHEREAS
IF YOU DO THE POLLING DATA, YOU HAVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEM
AND YOU CAN CONTROL FOR THOSE THINGS AND TRY TO FIGURE OUT
THE INDIVIDUAL FACTORS THAT ARE INFLUENCING THE OUTCOME.
>> OF COURSE YOU WOULD WANT TO DO A REGRESSION ANALYSIS.
>>THE REGRESSIVE LEFT AT IT AGAIN.
>> IT'S COMPLICATED.
THIS IS ONE STUDY, THERE WILL BE MANY.
BUT I
DO THINK ñ I AGREE WITH YOU.
I THINK THERE ARE MANY LESSONS WE
SHOULD DRAW ON FROM THIS
ELECTION.
I AM SUSPICIOUS OF ANYONE WHO TRIES TO SAY THERE IS
ONE.
THAT DOES NOT SOUND LIKE AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF REALITY.
THAT SOUNDS LIKE SOMEONE TRYING
TO PUSH A NARRATIVE.
IT MIGHT BE YOU TAKE CONCLUSIONS AT THE END
OF THIS ARTICLE AND SAY YOU ARE TRYING TO DRAW TOO BROAD OF A
CONCLUSION THERE.
BUT WE SHOULD
CARE ABOUT THE DATA.
THIS IS JUST ONE LITTLE BIT.
>>THAT I AGREE WITH.
WE HAVE REGRESSED INTO AGREEMENT.