Russia and NATO seem just one accident away from full-blown war,
but if it went down what would it look like and who would come out on top?
Day 1
In the opening day of hostilities, NATO war plans are immediately put into effect.
Planning for every contingency- including an outbreak of hostillities over the Ukraine war-
has been accomplished ahead of time, and the response is as automatic as a reflex.
Nations all over Europe immediately mobilize their militaries and call up their reserves,
while the United States calls up its own reserves and national guards.
A naval task force consisting of US and European vessels immediately heads for the Baltic Sea.
Attack submarines and ASW vessels head for picket positions across the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap.
Their job will be to stop any attempts by the Russian navy to break out into the Atlantic,
where it could potentially threaten US transports bringing over the bulk of
America's firepower to Europe. Of special concern are Russia's submarines which must
not be allowed to break out into the Atlantic at any cost. A furious hunt
for any Russian submarines unaccounted for begins across the Atlantic and north Pacific.
In Kaliningrad, both Russia and NATO exchange a furious fusilade of ground-launched cruise and
ballistic missiles at each other. NATO has the firepower advantage- Russian stocks have been
severely depleted due to the war in Ukraine and the need to pull from special reserves held in
case of exactly this scenario. Russia has robbed Peter to pay Paul, and now it's coming up short in
long-range attack missiles meant to slow down NATO air operations by destroying runways and other
critical infrastructure across Poland, eastern Germany, and the Czech Republic. These sites
are well defended by modern air defense systems though, and lacking the ability to saturate NATO
defenses, Russia's strikes inflict only moderate damage, slowing but not stopping air operations.
Of greater effectiveness is attacks into the Baltic NATO members, destroying ports
and other coastal infrastructure. Russia is attempting to prevent NATO forces from landing
in the Baltics and threatening it directly. A massive air attack escorted by MiGs devastates
multiple security fortifications across Russia's land border with the Baltic states.
Follow-on strikes hit at each country's military command and control networks.
NATO was always hard-pressed to defend the Baltics in case of war with Russia, and because
the suprise attack left little time to deploy aircraft to defend the skies of the Baltic states,
the Russian attack is largely successful. Russian troops stationed along the border immediately
roll into Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia in three seperate thrusts towards each nation's
capital. They only have a few days to secure the Baltics before NATO firepower beats it back.
There is a quiet but tense peace in the north, as NATO's newest member is poised to join the
fighting. Not wanting to open up an even bigger front for the already overextended Russian army,
Putin tells his troops to dig in near the Finnish border. He knows it would be impossible to win
a war against NATO if he opened up another front line. Leaving a token defensive force
while focusing the rest of the army's efforts in the south is the best option for the crazy
dictator. For now, neither side dares to cross the border, so a sort of truce remains in effect.
Sweden however has the luxury of time and distance. A NATO aspirant,
Sweden knows exactly which way the wind is blowing in this war and throws its support
behind NATO. Its navy begins a hunt for Russian subs, knowing that Russian air
power is tied up in the assault on the Baltic states and largely unable to threaten it.
Week 2
NATO has every advantage against Russia, but many of its European members experience readiness
issues. An air campaign against Russian air defense networks, radar installations,
command and control nodes, and other vital security infrastructure has been slow to manifest.
But once it does Russia is immediately put into the defensive. Wild Weasel combat aircraft
fly into the teeth of Russian air defenses. Specially modified and equipped with special
purpose weapons, these daring pilots are trained to destroy enemy radars and air defense batteries.
These must be suppressed before the bulk of NATO air power can do its job. Russia though has an
extremely dense air defense network, and the job will take time. This means that in the Baltics,
Russia currently has the advantage as its troops push ever closer towards the Baltic
capitals. However, daring raids from multiple NATO carriers in the Baltics,
and the activation of NATO's rapid response force, have slowed the Russian assault to a crawl.
NATO forces only number in the thousands, versus Russia's tens of thousands- but many
of these Russian troops are either conscripts or on rotation out of Ukraine. Combat veterans,
they still suffer from war weariness, poor training, and bad doctrine. This is
a force multiplier for NATO defenders, who are better trained and equipped,
and are supported by combat vehicles more capable than their Russian counterparts.
But the Russian Baltic thrust has been slowed, not stopped, and realistically,
no NATO member has any great hope that the Baltics can truly be defended. It'll take
weeks to assemble and transport large amounts of firepower into ports still under Russian attack.
Week 3
Deep penetration strikes by American B-2 bombers flying over the north pole inflict catastrophic
damage to Russian oil infrastructure in the far east and the Urals. Submarine-launched
cruise missiles add to the destruction of all-important oil refineries, processing centers,
and distribution networks. This sends a cold chill down the backs of Russian leadership-
as these could just as easily have been nuclear attacks. Despite dense air defense networks,
only a single B-2 bomber is destroyed so far in the ongoing campaign.
In the Pacific, the Russian fleet is bottled up in the Kamchatka Penninsula,
under threat of destruction thanks to an American carrier strike group. With
shore-based Granit anti-ship missile batteries, the fleet is kept safely out of range of American
vessels. The Granit missile features a one ton warhead, and though it may be old,
it's still a capable and deadly threat to even America's big capital ships, the supercarriers.
But Russia is unprepared for an air attack featuring America's newest anti-ship missile.
The LRASM features a 1,000 pound warhead in a sleek body made of stealthy materials. The
missiles are launched from B-52s taking off from Japanese air fields at a range of over 230 miles,
and use GPS and data links to guide themselves to their targets. However on approach,
the missiles go quiet and rely on their onboard artificial intelligence to plot an attack route,
diving to just a few feet over the wavetops.
Russia air defense radar detects them at a few dozen miles out,
but they have less than 40 seconds to respond. Russian ships fire off volleys
of interceptors as the LRASMs' electronic brains scan the Russian ships and use
image recognition software to identify each individual warship. Speaking to each other,
the missiles assign their own targets as they scream in at six hundred miles an hour.
The volley of air defense missiles intercept multiple LRASMs, but many
more punch through to hit their targets. The 1,000 pound warhead is on a delayed fuse,
allowing it to penetrate into the hull of its target vessel before detonating to cause massive
internal damage. Hundreds of sailors die, Six of the 11 major surface vessels of the Pacific
fleet are destroyed, two more are seriously damaged. The Slava-class cruiser Varyag,
flagship of the Pacific Fleet, has been targeted with great prejudice and sinks in minutes.
In Europe, NATO forces are forced to pull out of the Baltics. With the Finnish front
at a standstill, the Baltics were always undefendable. Kaliningrad
stands in the way of NATO reinforcement, and the enclave is heavily militarized.
NATO has long ago established air supremacy over Kaliningrad, but it was a difficult fight that
cost the alliance dozens of attack aircraft. A ground offensive will finally begin soon
though as NATO European firepower is massing in eastern Germany and Poland. Forces from Britain,
Spain, France, Germany, and Poland will be the vanguard of this attack.
Turkey leads an air and naval effort to destroy the Russian Black Sea fleet and attack Russian
positions in Crimea. NATO's other members prepare themselves for a reinforcing push into Ukraine,
where they'll link up with Ukraine's defenders and push east and south into Crimea itself.
Despite Russia invading NATO territory directly, most of NATO's leadership agrees that a push into
Russia itself is unacceptable and could be a provocation to use nuclear weapons.
Week 4
NATO special forces unleash a campaign of sabotage inside Russia, bringing down railway bridges,
destroying tracks, and setting ablaze important industrial and commercial targets. Taking a cue
from Ukraine, NATO SOF wage a guerilla campaign inside Russia itself, striking hard and fast then
melting back into the population. For its part, Russia has unleashed its own campaign of sabotage,
but because of efforts in Ukraine, it's severely limited in scope. A plan to disrupt NATO
operations with huge numbers of Spetsnatz agents all across Europe only results in a small number
of successful operations with minimal impact on NATO's ability to coordinate or move forces.
Russian air defenses have been attrited considerably all across its western
flank. With unchallenged air supremacy, Russian forces in Kaliningrad are routed
and destroyed as the German-led offensive smashes Russian defenses. Using weapons
such as smart cluster munitions able to select their own targets and attack them from above,
NATO aircraft bring a level of destruction to Russian forces not seen since Desert Storm.
NATO air losses are significant, but blunted considerably by the widespread use of stealth
aircraft such as the F-35, which lead the air campaign. With their ability to network with
other friendly planes, F-35s are able to get deeper into Russian air defense networks and
then direct weapons launched by non-stealthy planes to their targets. Russia's air force is
swept out of the sky, the only real challenge to NATO is Russia's ground based air defenses
which must be hunted down and eliminated one by one. With the sheer numbers of them though,
the task is a slow one, in turn slowing down the ground campaign.
In both arenas though, NATO looks to be superior in terms of doctrine, tactics,
and equipment. Russia's only hope is to hold NATO in Belarus and the southern Baltics.
Week 6
Russian forces are increasingly spread thin across Ukraine and the Baltics. Losses in
combat against NATO forces are significantly higher than against Ukrainian forces. Russia
rushes masses of conscripts to man large defensive works supported by hordes of artillery- exactly
the tactic used so successfully in Ukraine. But unlike in Ukraine, Russia now faces the most
technologically capable air forces in the world. American Wild Weasel aircraft systematically
hunt down and eliminate enemy air defenses, allowing for allied ground attack aircraft
to swoop down on Russian artillery positions while F-15s and Typhoons provide air cover.
Russian troops meanwhile are being pummeled by precision artillery and
special munitions launched from NATO bombers designed to destroy infantry
in trenches. Every single attack is precise to within a few meters,
even in their trenches Russian troops aren't safe. Just minutes after each bombardment finishes,
the rumbling of British Challengers and European Leopards is heard, descending on the defenders
like an armored fist. Any Russian tanks stupid enough to try to challenge NATO armor are instead
met by attack helicopters or strafed by ground attack aircraft like the vaunted A-10. Any that
survive are easily destroyed by European tanks with far greater range, precision, and sensors.
This is the combined arms warfare that Russia attempted, and failed at in Ukraine.
Week 8
NATO's biggest limitation is manpower. Despite being roundly defeated militarily when its forces
meet NATO forces, Russia has been better prepared for war than NATO and with more
combat-ready ground forces. NATO has needed time to mobilize, some nations like Germany
needed time to sort out bad logistics, and the US has had to transport its firepower to Europe.
By the end of the second month of fighting though, Russia faces the growing might of the
US Army and Marines, which relieve weary European forces across much of the front. Unlike NATO,
Russia can't rotate its troops out of combat, and every two weeks they are
forced into combat with NATO troops that have had time to rest and recuperate.
Under the intense pressure of western combined arms warfare, Russian morale is quickly
breaking. Much like in Desert Storm, Russian troops find themselves under attack from all
domains simultaneously. NATO electronic warfare operations disrupt their ability to communicate,
as deep-strikes into their rear eliminate command bunkers and vehicles foolish enough to transmit
orders to the troops at the front. Meanwhile precision air and artillery attacks makes it
impossible for armored vehicles to operate on the front, and infantry working in conjunction with
armor and attack helicopters continously probe at defenses and immediately exploit any weakness.
By comparison, with command networks disrupted or destroyed, Russian forces lack the personal
initiative to make decisions on their own. Not that it would do much good if they did, as NATO's
increasing air supremacy makes it perilous to mass forces for an attempt at an attack. Russia's
only hope is to fight a continuous sequence of defensive battles, hoping to bleed NATO
forces to the point that the squeamish western public has had enough and gives up on the war.
This is the one advantage Russia has over the west- Vladimir Putin has spent two decades
preparing his people for an ideological war with the west. More to the point though, the
Russian people seem to be at their core, extremely self-sacrifical and much better suited to bearing
the incredible cost of this war's casualties than their western counterparts. Russia will lose this
war. It would have lost even it if it had never invaded Ukraine, but after the failed invasion
and decimaton of its best forces in Ukraine, it has no chance of winning against NATO's might now.
But if western populations pull their support and grow squeamish about the mounting casualties,
Russia has a chance to negotiate a favorable peace deal. NATO's forces are the finest in
the world, but their populations may be unprepared for the costs of real war.
Now go check out Why Us Leaving NATO Would Cause World War 3, or click this other video instead!