Hey, what's up everyone?
Ajwritescrypto here.
And welcome to the Price Prediction Department!
In this video, I am going to cover no other than Cardano.
Some of you may know that I covered this coin on the live stream a couple months ago,
but I hold Cardano in high regard, and I feel that it deserves its own video.
And I'm sure many of you will appreciate that.
This video is sponsored by Stake.
Let's get it!
No, Gary, no.
I don't care what you say.
It's not a security.
No!
God damn it!
Sorry about that.
I don't even know where to begin with Cardano.
And it's very, very easy to get into the weeds.
I'm going to do my best to keep this video, like, kind of at the surface.
Cardano was one of those coins that I was really able to dig my nails into
when I first got into crypto.
And I have so much respect for Charles and IOHK
and everything that they're doing.
And I'm very excited to have a chance to meet Charles
at the Rare Evo conference in Denver at the end of August.
And I hope to see you there as well.
There's a hundred ways you could explain to someone what Cardano is,
but I feel that Charles Hoskinson said it best himself.
On a Twitter post at the beginning of August in 2020,
Charles said Cardano is an open platform that seeks to provide economic identity
to the billions who lack it by providing decentralized applications
to manage identity, value and governance.
I feel like Charles really summed it up, really put it all together there in that sentence.
Cardano has done a really good job separating themselves from the field
from a lot of other blockchains.
A lot of other blockchains will take like a launch-now-fix-later approach.
My dad always taught me to measure twice and cut once
and to get things right on the first time.
And Cardano has done a very good job implementing that into their blockchain.
They're one of the first to take a really smart, like, academic approach by doing peer reviews
and formally verifying to make sure what they're doing is correct
so it is correct when they launch it.
And then that way, they can keep focusing forward on building it
and improving it in the future.
Most of you might know that Cardano was a proof-of-stake project.
It is probably one of the, if not, the most popular proof-of-stake project.
Cardano was so popular that 62% of the coins in the circulating supply are already staked.
That's really just a nod to how well-oiled this machine is
and how large the ecosystem is.
When you look at a map of just how big the ecosystem is,
you'll see from there why this community is so vibrant
and it's one of the most contagious communities in all of crypto.
Even on Twitter, you know, whalechart did a poll that still has a couple days to go,
but, so far, there's already over 22,500 views,
and Cardano has a commanding lead for who has the largest crypto community.
As long as you don't call them the ADA Gang,
the Cardano community will welcome you with open arms.
So when you think about doing a price prediction for Cardano,
I mean, understand, last bull run, Cardano did absolutely amazing.
I remember personally buying a bunch of Cardano
somewhere between, like, 27¢, 32¢ and as it went on up in 2021
and Cardano reached an all-time high of $3.09 in early September of 2021.
This project went on an absolute tear.
And although a lot of people felt that it moved too slow,
it wasn't volatile enough,
this isn't one of those coins that you're going to, like, see 10%, 12%, 15% swings in daily price
because the market cap is so large.
And because there's so many coins in the supply,
this coin will slowly move over time.
And not even that, just think about how far Cardano has come as a whole
since it was at a previous all-time high back in 2021.
Moving forward into the next bull run,
I am very curious to see how well Cardano can do.
And if you haven't had a chance to check out some of Cardano's NFT,
I highly recommend.
Some of the front runners include The Ape Society, Clay Nation, OREMOB,
Boss Cat Rocket Club, Chilled Kongs and our very own JPG Junkies.
Firsthand, I have seen how fun it is to be involved in Cardano NFTs
and the communities that come with it.
And in terms of DeFi, I mean, Cardano's DeFi launched January 2, 2022.
And at the time of recording this video,
they already have $157 million locked in their TVL.
When you look at it from this angle,
you realize there's nothing Cardano doesn't have when you look at it
compared to the other crypto projects,
especially those inside the top 20,
where Cardano is ranked 8th,
or 6th place if you don't count stablecoins.
Something that has always impressed me the most about Cardano is its roadmap
and how much it has grown over time as they complete these milestones in the roadmap.
The roadmap for Cardano is split into five areas---
the Byron, the Shelley, the Goguen, the Basho and the Voltaire era.
The end game at the end of Voltaire for Cardano is to be completely decentralized
and to give all the power back to the people.
Cardano will not be ran by IOHK or the Cardano Foundation or anyone.
All the power will be distributed and decentralized amongst the people.
And that is the final goal.
Where are we right now?
Right now, we're in the Basho era.
We are still working on interoperability and scalability.
With the Hydra layer 2 scaling solution,
there are many heads of Hydra already live on the mainnet.
But the Voltaire era has started to show its face in the form of CIP-1694.
CIP stands for Cardano improvement proposal.
And 1694 is the year Voltaire was born.
So like I said, Cardano always takes a really calculated approach,
using peer reviews, formal verifications, X, Y and Z.
And when they give the power,
they're not just going to hand over the power to the people.
They're going to do it in a specific way that makes the most sense for everybody.
So the approach they're taking to make sure that future governance
is the best way it could possibly be is they're doing workshops all around the world
and they're taking the opinion from everyone in the Cardano community
and they're trying to put their heads together
and figure out the best way they can achieve this decentralization.
If you look at this website, voltaire.essentialcardano.io,
you can actually see where all the community workshops are taking place around the world.
And in the weekly development report that came out today,
it reads that by collecting feedback from community members,
diverse viewpoints can be incorporated to ensure the governance system
aligns with the community's needs and desires.
To be honest, I'm just very impressed how dedicated this team is.
And that shows by how dedicated the community is.
Because they are taking this seriously.
And that amount of effort goes a long way.
According to this article here by finbold.com,
Cardano has been adding an average of 2,446 new crypto wallets
every day since June 1 this year.
What you get in is what you get out.
And this is what you get when you choose Cardano.
As you can see, I could go on and on and on about all the news and updates from Cardano.
Gary, no.
Gary, I told you. It's not a security.
Give up.
Not even getting into it.
Cardano is not a security.
I think it's time we get down to the price prediction.
Cardano's previous all-time high from last bull run was $3.09.
At the time, it had a little over $101 billion in its market cap
with a little over 32 billion coins in its circulating supply.
As of now, Cardano is down over 90% from its all-time high.
It is currently priced right around 30¢ with a market cap of $10.18 billion
with a circulating supply over 35 billion.
So, as you can see, Cardano has roughly added 3 billion coins to its market cap
since its last all-time high.
So, remember, the formula for our price predictions
is price equals market cap divided by circulating supply.
Our job, first, is to figure out what the circulating supply could be
by the time we get to our next all-time high,
which is projected to be September, November of 2025.
Cardano has a max supply of 45 billion coins.
And like I said, there's a little over 35 billion coins currently in circulation.
That means around 77.8% are already in and 22.2% still have to go into the supply.
The question is, how fast are those coins going to go in?
If you look at this chart here,
this is ADA's initial supply from the launch.
There is 57.6% in the public sale.
There's 30.9% in the reserve.
So, basically, how this works is that when the reserve goes in to the circulating supply,
that is the process called monetary expansion.
This is a little confusing, but I'll try my best.
Time periods on the Cardano blockchain are referred to as epochs.
Each epoch lasts 432,000 slots, where each slot is one second.
That means each epoch lasts about five days.
So the amount of ADA staked during each epoch determines how many new blocks are minted.
If you're a fan of Cardano,
I'm sure you've heard the news of the recent update,
which is numbered 8.1.1.
It basically reduces the friction between the epoch barriers
and speeds up the network process during the change of epochs.
I know. It's kind of confusing.
And to be completely honest,
even I was very confused when I really looked into this.
So what did I do?
I reached out to my friend big pey,
who is probably one of the smartest people in the Cardano community
that I personally know.
He messaged me.
There's about 21.8 million ADA payed out per epoch.
The rate slowly goes down over time instead of a big halving event like Bitcoin.
It gets cut in half slowly every four to six years.
It's also based on how many addresses stake.
If more stake, it will go down a little faster.
The network average right now is between 3.4% and 3.6% a year.
And that message really cleared things up
on how the monetary expansion for Cardano works.
Instead of a halving event that happens every four years,
Cardano is slowly halving all the time
based off the amount of Cardano staked in each epoch.
But for me to estimate how many Cardano will be in this supply by the end of 2025,
I had to do the math.
If you take the current supply, which is a little over 35 billion,
and the yearly inflation of 3.4% between now and November of 2025,
that spits us out at 38,023,000,000.
So if you take the 3.6% for the inflation rate and run the same equation,
that spits us at just about 38.2 billion.
So, what did I do?
I took the average.
And I'm going to say, by November of 2025, Cardano will roughly have 38.1 billion in its supply.
God, that was complicated.
I know a lot of the audience would have just preferred for me to say the number,
but some people want to know the math.
So there you go.
So, finally, we have the denominator of 38.1 billion coins in the supply.
What about the numerator?
Remember, at the top of the last bull run, Cardano's market cap was a little over $101 billion.
If you take $101 billion but with the heightened supply of 38.1 billion,
that would give us a $2.65 Cardano,
which is still a 789% increase from its current point.
But personally, I think Cardano's market cap is going to go much higher than last time.
I don't see any version or any world in the multiverse
where Cardano is not at least $5 by the top of the next bull run.
For Cardano to get to $5 with the heightened supply,
would require a market cap of $190.5 billion,
which is a 16X from right here.
So we can establish that's the lower end of my range.
But how high can it go?
I have heard so many different Cardano price predictions over time.
A lot of websites on the internet will only tell you $1.65, $1.30, $1.70.
Those price predictions are way too conservative,
especially when you would take into account the overall pattern of the weekly chart
that you can see here on your screen.
As you can see, we are in an overall rising wedge.
And if we kind of bounce off of the top and the bottom of this wedge,
and we put the top at November of 2025, that would have us at a $13 Cardano.
Imagine waking up and seeing a $13 Cardano.
For that to be possible,
Cardano would require a market cap of $495.3 billion,
which is a 42X from right now.
Do I think a $13 Cardano is possible in the future?
For sure.
But for the next bull run, that is asking a lot.
If we wanted to see a $10 Cardano with the heightened supply,
that would require a $381 billion market cap,
which is a 32X.
And if you wanted to see a $7 Cardano, that would require a $266.7 billion market cap,
which is a 22X.
And that sounds a lot more like it to me.
But how are we going to get that high?
I'll tell you.
One day at a time.
If you look at the daily chart from right here,
as you can see,
by the bodies of the candles,
we have put in a higher high on a daily timeframe.
And hopefully that wick doesn't count as a break of structure.
What we need to do is, one day at a time, put up higher highs and lower lows
on larger timeframes.
To me, the 0.418 or almost 42¢ level is a super important support/resistance level.
As you can see, it was the floor here, here and here,
but it was the ceiling here and here.
So this level has been tested time and time again.
And we need to get above that 41¢, 42¢ level to keep rocking up into higher highs.
Another important level is 0.387,
which is also an S/R line that was tested when it wicked down back in May of '22
and we have been rejected by it in March of '23.
Luckily for us, the most amount of buyers from the visible range volume profile
are sitting at that 0.387 level,
and it is a 31% increase from our current price point
to get to that level.
And it's a 41% increase to retest the 0.418 level,
which I feel is a very important support/resistance level for right now.
So my price prediction for Cardano for the top of the next bull run
is somewhere between $5 and $7.
Don't get me wrong.
I know that we have a long way to go from our market cap right now
to get to a $5 or $7 Cardano.
But I believe if any coin out there can put up those kinds of numbers,
it has to be the ADA Gang.
I mean, the Cardano community.
Boom! Just like that, there you go, there's my price prediction for Cardano.
That one took me a lot of effort, a lot of research to really nail down the numbers I wanted.
Thank you for sticking around to the end of this video.
I want to know in the comments,
was I too bullish?
Was I too conservative?
What do you think Cardano is going to be at the top of the next bull run?
Let me know in the comments.
With that said, my name is Ajwritescrypto and have yourself a great rest of your weekend.