Here in Germany, this election is, of course, about who's going to win, but it's
also about who's leaving. Angela Merkel became chancellor in 2005.
Sixteen years on, her time as leader is almost complete.
She's involved in the campaign but she's not a contender.
And the new chancellor will inevitably impact
Germany's positions on a range of vital issues, from the direction of
the EU, to global trade, to climate change. My colleague, Katya Adler, puts it this way:
- The thing is, about these German elections, is they matter
not just inside the country but outside as well.
This is all about change. You thought German politics
might be predictable and boring, absolutely not.
- Well, let's start with the main players and, first of all, the man
Angela Merkel would like to be her replacement. This is Armin Laschet.
He's already leader of Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union,
the CDU, it's right of centre. Its sister party in Bavaria is called
the CSU. Mr Laschet had been favourite, but it's not going to plan.
His polling was already wobbling when this happened: as Germany's president
addressed the devastating floods in July, Mr Laschet was seen laughing.
That he's leader of one of the worst hit regions made it worse.
But there's more to his problems than just that, though.
Deutsche Welle tells us in this profile: 'Throughout his campaign,
he has come across as vague. What, many wondered,
does the candidate really stand for?' Well, in the latest TV debate,
Mr Laschet tried to address that.
- The cohesion of Europe in these difficult times, a climate-
neutral industry and strong economy and, above all, a clear
course for national security.
- That's the pitch but the polls are offering little comfort. Look at what's happened.
First of all, this is the result of the 2017 election.
The CDU/CSU, sometimes called 'the Union', reached 35%.
That was actually its worst result in 70 years but it was still top.
Then his polling from July of this year. The CSU/CDU
are on 29%. Now look at the latest polling.
Well, Mr Laschet and the CDU has been on the slide.
And, remarkably, having been third in July, the SPD - the Social Democrats -
now find themselves in the lead. And the SPD's leader is this man: Olaf Scholz.
He's the current finance minister. That's because Germany's government
at the moment is a grand coalition between the two main parties.
One German political scientist says of him:
'He's rational, stable, almost boring.
This makes him very similar to Mrs Merkel.'
That's right, in their different ways, both candidates want voters to
see them as bringing more of what Merkel offered. Indeed, Mr Scholz
seems very happy to encourage this comparison. In this magazine photo, he
even deployed Merkel's trademark diamond hand position.
Now, let's be clear, they are
of course not one and the same. Mr Scholz is centre-left,
Mrs Merkel is centre-right, they're
different politicians from different parties. And this is Olaf Scholz's pitch:
- I will immediately bring in a minimum wage of 12 euros,
ensure stable pensions and ensure that, within the first year of
government, we will have the structure in place to build a
renewable energy industry with good jobs that are climate neutral.
- Now Mr Scholz and Mr Laschet are most likely to replace Angela Merkel.
But there is one other candidate who has a chance.
This is Annalena Baerbock. She is leader of the Green Party.
And this is her message:
- I stand for a new start that would no longer do climate protection
halfway. Policies that finally bring children and families to the
centre and a human rights-led foreign policy in the heart of Europe.
- Now after briefly leading the polls, the Greens are now
back in third and here's the polling from last week
again. We've talked about the CDU/CSU
and the Social Democrats and the Greens but also note the far-right
AFD, the far-left Die Linke and liberal Conservatives
the FDP. Now, no one's going to work with the AFD but all of the others
matter because German governments are always coalitions. This is how
the system works. Are you ready? OK, here we go. Germans cast two votes:
one for a local MP, one for a political party. At least
598 members are elected by these two votes,
then half of the Bundestag is made up of those local MPs,
half are elected from party lists based on the percentage
of the overall vote that the parties received.
Then the Bundestag is set and coalition talks begin. Coalitions have
all sorts of funny names in Germany: traffic lights, Jamaica, kiwi. They
all refer to the different colours of the different parties and eventually
a coalition will emerge that has over 50% of MPs. It's that coalition
the chooses the chancellor. That process can take a while. Last time
it took five months. But when the coalition is settled we will then
see Germany's approach to the EU, to climate change, to global trade.
Joe Biden acknowledged this global role when
bidding farewell to Angela Merkel.
- Thank you for speaking out for what is right and for never
failing to defend human dignity.
I want to thank you for your continued support, for the long-standing goal of
a Europe whole, free and at peace.
- It is the nature of all elections that foreign
policy takes a back seat. But behind the urgency of
domestic politic, a great unresolved question remains:
what kind of global power does Germany want to be?
That's why Germany's next step matters for all of us.