the bank of england says the uk economy
is in for another
tough few months but it believes that
the impact of coronavirus restrictions
will not be as bad as last year's
lockdown
and the rollout of vaccines will help
the economy bounce back
the size of the economy the gdp is
expected to shrink by
4.2 percent in the first three months of
this year
the bank says there could be a rapid
recovery from spring onwards
meanwhile as the government's furlough
scheme winds down
the bank says the unemployment rate is
likely to peak at 7.8 per cent
by the middle of the year as our
economics editor faisal islam reports
there are some reasons for hope
but predicting the course of the economy
is as tough
as trying to predict this pandemic
like every town city and suburb slough
high street is currently locked down
again on the latest figures it had one
of the highest proportions of furloughed
employees
in the country not all of this will
return but the question is
when does the process of reopening begin
it is the bank of england's job
to assess these matters every three
months it has been counting not just
jobs and prices
but vaccinations too as a result the
shape of the economy from last year's
extraordinary lockdown
and autumn recovery looks a little like
this with
right now a further significant fall but
not quite as historic as last year
and then a sharp rebound between april
and september growing five percent a
quarter
as the economy is able to reopen i am
optimistic that we are now seeing a
hugely impressive program of vaccination
and that we're also now beginning to see
the positive benefits of it
and i think you know as we move forwards
that should reduce
uncertainty this famous century-old
industrial estate is the largest in
europe
and while the bank also pointed to a hit
for now from new trade barriers
with the eu here businesses are
investing more in serving customers
over the internet i think the trends
around e-commerce
digital and tech are so strong and i
think the growth that we've seen over
the pandemic will continue
i think the recovery um will be
interesting what we're hearing from
businesses
on the trading estate in particular and
beyond is this need for a road map
uncertainty coming out
of the pandemic this lockdown has been
quite different from the first one
last april much more of the economy has
been kept open so the overall economic
hit
will be smaller than last april and
there's also the certainty now of a
vaccine
fueled recovery we and the bank of
england just don't know
exactly when and that's led to strong
calls for the government
to keep its high level of support going
for months to come
on the site of slough old library a
surprise almost to the day of the new
lockdown last month
not just one but two hotels opening here
a sign of more wheels of the economy
turning during the current lockdown
there is key workers in this area and
there is a need for construction
to continue and our hotel is very well
suited for that
um so we decided to open and when we see
we've opened this week and we've seen
a pickup that justifies it this is a bet
on things getting back to normal at some
point
yes i mean we are very hopeful that
travel restriction will be east in due
course i mean it's loud
who wouldn't want to travel here right
now it might not look like it
but the bank also pointed to tens of
billions of pounds in extra savings by
households
who have not been able to spend that at
some point could be unleashed
another much needed shot in the arm at a
tough moment for the economy
faisal islam bbc news in slough