>> Neil: HOW WOULD YOU LIKE IT
IF YOU LEFT THE TOP POSITION IN
THE ADMINISTRATION OF THE MARKET
SOARS?
THERE IS NO CONNECTION.
DOW UP 74 POINTS DESPITE THE
FACT OR MAY BE OBLIVIOUS TO THE
FACT THAT JOHN BOLTON HAS LEFT
IS NATIONAL SECURITY VISOR.
IT IS A KICK IN THE PANTS ON THE
WAY OUT IN A WAY.
BILLIONAIRE KEN FISHER, CONTRARY
READ OF THAT, WHATEVER YOU THINK
OF THE MARKETS.
GOOD TO SEE YOU.
>> GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.
>> Neil: DO LOOK AT MARKETS
AFTER AN EVENT LIKE THIS,
CRAZINESS OF THE WHITE HOUSE,
DISARRAY, SELL, SELL, SELL.
>> FOR HOW LONG HAS THE
WHITE HOUSE HAD A LOT OF
VOLATILITY IT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT?
HOW IS LIFE GOING ON SINCE THAT
STARTED?
I DON'T SEE THIS IS VERY
DIFFERENT.
I DON'T WORRY ABOUT JOHN BOLTON.
HE'S GOING TO FIND A JOB, I'M
PRETTY SURE.
>> Neil: FOR THE MARKETS
LOOKING AT ALL OF THIS THEN YOU
SEE POLL FIGURES COMING OUT
TODAY, THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL
NUMBERS DESPITE A PRETTY STRONG
ECONOMY AND PRETTY GOOD MARKETS
WITHIN A STONE'S THROW ALL-TIME
HIGHS.
>> IN REALITY, MARKETS ARE A
LITTLE BIT LIKE THE SNAKE
CHARMER.
THE MARKET IS THE SNAKE.
THE CHARMER IS THE ECONOMY, AND
YOU DON'T REALLY BE WATCHING
EITHER.
YOU WANT TO BE WATCHING THE
CROWD.
IF THE CROWD IS NOT TERRIBLY
CHARMED BY THE SNAKE CHARMER
RIGHT NOW.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT A LITTLE
DIFFERENTLY, SOMETIMES THEY WARM
UP AND THE ECONOMY HAS TO GET
THE SNAKE DANCING A LITTLE
DIFFERENTLY.
THAT HAPPENS.
I'M NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
THE MARKET IN THE INTERMEDIATE
TERM.
SIX MONTHS.
PRETTY OFTEN IN THIS PERIOD OF
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR IN
PARTICULAR, YOU GET 17 PEOPLE
BASHING THE PRESIDENT AND
BASHING EACH OTHER AND YOU GET
RISING UNCERTAINTY FROM THAT
WHICH OFTEN MAKES THE MARKET
MOVE FORWARD BUT HESITATINGLY.
THE WORLD IS NOT THAT BAD THAT
THERE'S NOT A LOT OF FOCUS ON
THE NEGATIVE.
>> Neil: THE MARKETS TEND TO
LEAD.
WHAT ARE THEY TELLING US?
>> WHAT I WOULD EXPECT TO HAPPEN
IS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THAT
PERIOD OF WINNOWING THE
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE DOWN TO ONE
OR A COUPLE, THAT UNCERTAINTY
FADES, MARKETS LEAD AND AS YOU
GET TO THE END OF THE YEAR, YOU
GET RISING MARKET.
>> Neil: CHINA, EVERYONE TALKS
ABOUT CHINA.
MAKING A PROMISE TO BUY MORE
AGRICULTURAL ITEMS.
YOU SAID "I THINK IT'S LESS
ABOUT ECONOMIC POLICY THAN
GRANDSTANDING AND NORTH KOREA."
WHAT DID YOU MEAN?
>> IN THE BEGINNING AND I SPOKE
ABOUT THIS WITH YOU AS IT WAS
HAPPENING IN REAL-TIME IN 2018.
THE FACT IS EVERY TIME TRUMP
WOULD WANT TO TRY TO OPEN THE
RELATIONSHIP WITH NORTH KOREA,
KIM JONG UN, IT WILL BLOW UP AND
HE WOULD UP THE TARIFFS
FUNCTION.
KIM JONG UN WOULD GO OFF TO
BEIJING AND THERE WOULD BE A LOT
OF POWWOWING.
>> Neil: DO YOU THINK THOSE
TWO ARE TIED IN?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
THE TIMING OF TRUMP'S MOVEMENTS
AND THE TIMING OF KIM JONG UN'S
PHYSICAL MOVEMENTS.
HE NEVER STEPPED FOOT OUT OF
NORTH KOREA.
HE HOPPED ON THE TRAIN AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE TARIFFS AGAINST
CHINA.
THE FACT IS CHAIRMAN KIM SAID --
>> Neil: YOU THINK HE'S
CALLING THE SHOTS?
>> I THINK THE RELATIONSHIP THAT
EXISTS, THERE IS NO REASON FOR
NORTH KOREA TO EXIST AS IT DOES,
THAT THIS IS A COUNTRY WITH LESS
PAID ROAD MILES THAN A SMALL
TOWN IN AMERICA AND THE WHOLE
COUNTRY, IT'S A POOR PLAYER
SPENDING MONEY --
>> Neil: THIS TRADE THING.
>> CHINA'S ANKLE BITER AGAINST
AMERICA.
>> Neil: BEFORE THE ELECTION,
DO YOU THINK?
>> I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER.
IF I AM TRUMP AND I'VE SAID THIS
TO YOU ABOUT OTHER THINGS, THE
MEXICO TARIFFS AND WHAT HAVE
YOU, SOMETIMES TRUMP CAVED ON A
LITTLE AGREEMENT AND SOMETIMES
HE WAITS FOR MORE LATER.
I HE'S GOING TO WANT SOMETHING.
>> Neil: THERE IS A METHOD TO
WHAT HE'S DOING?
>> TRUMP TOLD YOU WHEN HE WROTE
HIS BOOK, START OFF ACTING LIKE
A CRAZY MAN, ACT BIG AND THEY
OFFER YOU A LITTLE AND YOU
DECIDE YOU WANT TO SETTLE FOR
IT.
SOMETIMES HE DOES AND SOMETIMES
HE DOESN'T.
I CAN'T PREDICT PRESIDENT TRUMP
AND I DON'T TRY TO.
HE HAS SOMETHING GOING ON THAT
HE WANTS TO ACCOMPLISH.
>> Neil: YOU MAKE IT SOUND
LIKE IT'S ORCHESTRATED.
HE WROTE "MEMORIES ARE SHORT.
IF TRUMP GOT HIS BIG WIN NOW ON
TRADE, FOLKS WOULD FORGET IT BY
THE ELECTION."
SO HE WOULD HAVE TO STAGGER IT
CLOSE TO THE ELECTION.
>> AND IF YOU GET TOO CLOSE, HE
LOSES HIS POWER BECAUSE OF YOU
GET TOO CLOSE, CHINA SAYS LET'S
WAIT AND SEE IF HE IS STILL
THERE.
WE DON'T LOSE MUCH BY WAITING.
IT IS A TRICKY FUNCTION BUT I
REVERT TO MY POINT THAT
FUNDAMENTALLY AMERICA IS A
COUNTRY THAT TAKES THINGS FOR
GRANTED.
ONCE WE GET IT, WE ASSUME IT WAS
ALWAYS THERE AND IT'S JUST ONTO
THE NEXT.
WE ARE KIND OF IMPATIENT, ONTO
THE NEXT CULTURE AND THAT'S GOOD
AND BAD ALL IN ONE.
THE FACT IS THAT TRUMP, WHO IS,
DESPITE ALL OF HIS CRITICISMS,
THINGS POLITICAL, AS YOU POINTED
OUT EARLIER, HE'S BEEN VERY
CRAFTY IN HIS 2016 ELECTION
PULLING OFF SOMETHING THAT NO
ONE HAS EVER DONE BEFORE.
AND HE'S ALWAYS GOT SOME
PLANNED, WHETHER IT WILL WORK OR
NOT, I DON'T KNOW.
>> Neil: HE CANNOT HIGH PRAISE
FROM GEORGE SOROS, LIKES HIS
STANCE IN THINKS HIS GREATEST
FOREIGN POLICY ACHIEVEMENT.
HE DID SAY DON'T CAVE ON HUAWEI.
>> IF YOU LOOK AT, THEIR
SOCIAL MEDIA, YOU CAN'T SELL IT
FOR BEINGS OUTSIDE OF CHINA.
LOOK AT THE CHINESE EXPORTS OF
OTHER TECH PRODUCTS, THEY ARE
ABOUT THIS BIG.
ALIBABA, OUTSIDE OF CHINA,
STAGGERS.
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS ALL OF
THAT COMES BECAUSE THE CHINA
SYSTEM IS BASED ON CENSORING.
THERE'S ONLY ONE CHINESE SORTS
OF -- SOURCE OF MEDIA WHERE I
WRITE MONTHLY.
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS IF
YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE THAT
CONTROL SYSTEM, YOU REALLY HAVE
A HARD TIME SELLING ON THE
OUTSIDE.
LOOK AT THE CHINESE ORIGINATED
SEMICONDUCTOR EXPORT MARKET.
IT'S TINY.
IN THIS WORLD, SEMICONDUCTORS
ARE TO THIS WORLD WHAT STEEL AND
ELECTRICITY WERE TO 19TH
CENTURY.
MAYBE EVEN STEAM.
THE FACT THE MATTER IS IF YOU
THINK ABOUT IT, SEMICONDUCTORS
ARE NOT NEWTEK BUT THEY ARE
FUNDAMENTAL BUILDING BLOCKS.
>> Neil: ARE THEY IN PERIL IF
WE DON'T SETTLE THIS STUFF?
>> AS GEORGE SOROS POINTS OUT
QUITE CORRECTLY, HUAWEI HAS
TREMENDOUS DIFFICULTY IF THEY
CAN'T BUY AMERICAN TECH
PRODUCTS.
WE ARE STRONGER BECAUSE WE ARE
OUR THE TECH DOMINANT FORCE IN
THE WORLD.
LOOK AT TECH MARKET CAP BY
COUNTRY.
YOU HAVE A HARD TIME FINDING
TECH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE ON A
MARKET CAP BASIS OUTSIDE OF OUR
WONDERFUL COUNTRY.
>> Neil: YOU TALK ABOUT 5G AND
ITS TECHNOLOGY, THE ARGUMENT IS
WE GO TOO FAR, WE BEQUEATH IT TO
CHINA.
>> I DON'T KNOW THAT'S TRUE OR
THAT'S NOT TRUE.
>> Neil: I LIKE WHEN YOU'RE
HONEST.
YOU MENTIONED ABOUT CURRENCY WAR
FEARS AND YOUR MENTIONING THE
PRESIDENT SAYS WE HAVEN'T FELT
THE IMPACT OF THE TARIFFS
BECAUSE THE CHINESE EVALUATED
THEIR CURRENCY.
THESE FEARS ARE AS FULL AS THEY
COME HERE AND WHAT DID YOU MEAN?
>> TRYING TO GROW THE COUNTRY BY
CURRENCY MANIPULATION HAS NEVER,
EVER WORKED.
TRY TO FIND EXAMPLES OF PLACES
WHERE IT HAS.
YOU CAN'T.
SECONDARILY.
>> Neil: WERE ALL THESE
COUNTRIES ARE DEVALUING.
>> IT IS A RACE TO THE BOTTOM.
HOW WELL THEY DOING?
THAT'S A MISTAKE.
I DON'T HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE
FED CUTTING RATES.
I THINK ALMOST EVERYTHING THE
FED EVER DOES IS, LET'S SAY,
STUPID.
>> Neil: YOU ARE NOT A FAN.
>> I WOULD DO SOMETHING NO ONE
TALKS ABOUT.
I WOULD DUMP THE LONG BONDS AND
FORCE THE LONG RATE UP AS MUCH
AS THEY COULD TO STEEP IN THE
YIELD CURVE AND INCREASE THE
SPREAD BETWEEN BANK DEPOSIT
RATES AND LONG-TERM LENDING
RATES.
>> Neil: DUMP A LOT OF BOND,
FLOOD THE MARKET, THE PRICE GOES
DOWN IN THE FIELD GOES OUT.
>> IN DOING THAT, YOU INSTANT
BANKS TO LEND ME THE FULL FED
POLICY THROUGHOUT THIS EXPANSION
HAS BEEN TO DISTANCE AND DESCEND
ADVISE.
LESSER CORPORATIONS WOULD BE
ABLE TO BORROW.
DOESN'T HELP THE WORLD IF
MICROSOFT CAN BORROW MORE
CHEAPLY.
THEY CAN GET ALL THE MONEY THEY
WANT AND THEY CAN BORROW ALL
OVER THE WORLD.
IF THE AMERICAN DOMESTIC
COMPANIES, THE CEMENT MAKER ARE
THE BASIC INDUSTRY COMPANY OR
BASIC SERVICES COMPANY THAT'S
HAVING A HARD TIME BORROWING
FROM THE BANK RIGHT NOW.
THAT COULD BORROW AND THEN
EXPAND AND THEN DO WELL.
WE REALLY SHOULDN'T HAVE EVER
HAD THE FED BUYING LONG BONDS IN
THE FIRST PLACE.
QUANTITATIVE EASING.
LONGTIME CRITIC OF THE FED.
QUANTITATIVE EASING WAS ALWAYS
QUANTITATIVE DISEASE INC. HAS
BECAUSE IT DISTANCE EDIFIES
-- DISTANT TENTS THAT IT WAS A
MISTAKE AND IT WAS BAD AND THEY
STILL DON'T GET IT.
I LEARNED THIS FROM MILTON
FRIEDMAN WHEN I WAS VERY YOUNG
THEN HE SAID THEY WOULD NEVER
GET IT AND THEY NEVER HAVE.
>> Neil: YOU ARE A BILLIONAIRE
BILLIONAIRE.
>> THEY SAY.
WHO KNOWS?
>> Neil: THEY SAY.
ELIZABETH WARREN HAS A WEALTH
TAX IDEA THAT WOULD GO AFTER
PEOPLE LIKE YOU.
IT COULD RAISE A LOT OF MONEY.
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THAT?
>> I DON'T THINK IT WILL GO
ANYWHERE NO MATTER WHAT.
I THINK IT'S EASY TO SAY THOSE
WORDS.
I THINK WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO
MARKET ACCOUNTING, IT'S A VERY
TREACHEROUS SLOPE.
LET ME SAY THAT IF YOU
IMPLEMENTED IT AS SHE HAS
DISCUSSED WHICH AGAIN I DON'T
THINK WE'LL EVER HAPPEN, YOU
WOULD HAVE EVERY WEALTHY FAMILY
TO WHICH IT WOULD BE IMPLYING IN
PERPETUAL LAWSUIT WITH THE IRS.
>> Neil: YOU COULD FIND WAYS
TO DODGE IT.
>> I HAVE MADE A POINT FOREVER
THAT IF YOU'RE ABLE TO BE CLEVER
ENOUGH TO BECOME THAT WEALTHY
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HEIRS,
YOU ARE CLEVER ENOUGH TO GET
AROUND IT TOO.
IT'S ARROGANT FOR LAWMAKERS TO
THINK THEY CAN PASS LAWS THAT
WILL CAPTURE THOSE PEOPLE.
>> Neil: I WILL PUT YOU DOWN
AS A MAYBE.
KEN FISHER, ALWAYS GOOD SEEING