THANK YOU, SIR. GOOD TO SEE YOU AND I’M SURE
WE’LL BE CHECKING IN AS THAT
SENATE RACE WITH MR. McCONNELL
HEATS UP.
HEATS UP. JOINING ME NOW, LARRY DIRECTOR
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA
CENTER FOR POLITICS.
AND DAVE WASSERMAN AND NBC NEWS
CONTRIBUTOR.
CONTRIBUTOR. DAVE, YOU JUST HEARD FROM
PHILLIP BAILIE THERE IT WAS A
VERY -- PUT IT THIS WAY -- THE
DNC’S NOT SENDING AROUND THOSE
TALKING POINTS, ARE THEY?
BASICALLY SAYING, WEIRDLY ENOUGH
REPUBLICANS ARE SECRETLY HAPPY
ABOUT THIS ALMOST AS MUCH AS
DEMOCRATS ARE.
DEMOCRATS ARE. INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE.
INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE. >> YEAH.
>> YEAH. AND IT WAS REALLY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY IN THOSE SUBURBS THAT
WHERE WE SAW THE BIGGEST EROSION
FOR MATT BEVIN VERSUS 2015.
WE SAW DEMOCRATS ADVANCE FURTHER
IN THE SUBURBS IN VIRGINIA.
IN 2020, THERE WON’T BE A SINGLE
STATE OR FEDERAL OFFICE HOLDER
REPRESENTING FAIRFAX COUNTY
VIRGINIA IN RICHMOND OR
WASHINGTON.
WASHINGTON. SO THAT SUBURBAN ADVANCE FOR
DEMOCRATS CONTINUES ON.
>> LARRY, THIS FEELS AS IF THIS
WAS AN ELECTION NIGHT THAT JUST
REINFORCED PRE-EXISTING NOTIONS
THAT WE ALL HAD.
AND ALL OF THE RESULTS SORT OF,
OH, YEP.
OH, YEP. TRUMP’S STILL GOT SUBURBAN
PROBLEMS.
PROBLEMS. YEP.
YEP. STILL A RURAL URBAN DIVIDE.
YEP.
YEP. YOU KNOW, CERTAIN -- OH, OBAMA
CARE CAN PLAY IN EVERY CORNER IN
THIS COUNTRY.
THIS COUNTRY. IT FEELS AS IF EVERYTHING
REINFORCED WHAT WE ALREADY KNEW.
OR AT LEAST WE THINK.
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH. NO.
NO. I THINK THAT’S TRUE.
WE DIDN’T HAVE TO LEARN ANY NEW
LESSONS AT LEAST NOT HERE IN
VIRGINIA.
VIRGINIA. SO I’M HAPPY ABOUT THAT.
>> NOT YET.
>> NOT YET.
NOT YET.
NOT YET. BUT WHAT YOU JUST SAID IS TRUE.
THIS IS A 20-25 YEAR PROCESS.
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS THAT
FRANKLY HAVE BEEN PUT ON
STEROIDS BY DONALD TRUMP.
THE ELECTION OF DONALD TRUMP.
THIS HAS PUSHED SO MANY
SUBURBANITES WHO HAD VOTED
REPUBLICAN, CHUCK, FOR DECADES
INTO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
THEY NOW SHOW UP, VOTE
DEMOCRATIC REGULARLY, AND
REMEMBER THIS IS THE
CULMINATION.
CULMINATION. THIS WAS THE LAST PIECE OF THE
PUZZLE THAT DEMOCRATS DIDN’T
CONTROL.
CONTROL. NOW, THEY HAVE EVERYTHING IN
VIRGINIA.
VIRGINIA. THERE’S NOTHING LEFT.
THERE ARE NO MORE WORLDS TO
CONQUER.
CONQUER. SO IF I WERE THE REPUBLICANS, I
WOULDN’T SPEND TEN CENTS IN
VIRGINIA AT LEAST UNTIL DONALD
TRUMP IS GONE.
>> I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY IT --
IT -- TRUMP IN THIS CASE IN
VIRGINIA, LARRY, FELT AS YOU
JUST PUT IT RIGHT, HE JUST
PUT -- HE ACCELERATED A TREND.
SO I MEAN, AT THIS POINT THERE
IS NO ALTERNATIVE REPUBLICAN
PARTY LEFT?
PARTY LEFT? >> THERE’S -- THERE’S NOTHING.
IT’S REALLY AMAZING.
THE REPUBLICANS USED TO WIN
BECAUSE THEY NOMINATED
CENTER-RIGHT PEOPLE WHO ARE
ACCEPTABLE TO THE SUBURBANITES
AND ACTUALLY WERE WELL-LIKED BY
THE SUBURBANITES.
THE SUBURBANITES. NOW, IT’S THE HARD CORE, HARSH
REPUBLICANS WHO TEND TO WIN
STATEWIDE NOMINATIONS AND A LOT
OF LOCAL NOMINATIONS.
AND IT JUST DOESN’T SELL AND
THEY DON’T EVEN SEEM TO CARE.
>> LET’S TALK ABOUT THE IMPACT
IN 2020 A BIT HERE.
DAVE, WHAT’S AMAZING TO ME IS
ACTUALLY NOT HOW ONLY THIS
RESULT WAS REINFORCING.
IT WAS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO WHAT
WE SAW IN 2018.
A DEMOCRAT WHO FIT THE DISTRICT
OR STATE, ANDY BESHEAR, RUNS ON
PROTECTING SOMETHING THAT IS
GROWING MORE POPULAR BY THE DAY,
OBAMA CARE, AND SOMEHOW IS ABLE
TO WIN IN SOME RED AREAS.
AND OH BY THE WAY, IS HE A
MILLENNIAL TECHNICALLY?
MILLENNIAL TECHNICALLY? I THINK HE MAY HAVE EVEN CHECKED
THAT BOX.
THAT BOX. RIGHT?
RIGHT? THERE IS A PATTERN HERE.
WHAT IS THE LESSON DEMOCRATS
SHOULD TAKE FROM THIS?
>> WELL, COUPLE THINGS FROM LAST
NIGHT.
NIGHT. FIRST OF ALL, THIS SUBURBAN
PIPELINE AWAY FROM REPUBLICANS
AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY THAT
LARRY WAS TALKING ABOUT, IT’S
ABSOLUTELY AFFECTING
ABSOLUTELY AFFECTING PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS BECAUSE
THERE IS A NEW NAME FOR THOSE
SUBURBAN REPUBLICANS WHO DON’T
LIKE TRUMP AND IT’S CALLED
DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. VIRGINIA DOESN’T HAVE PARTY
REGISTRATION SO YOU CAN VOTE IN
WHOEVER’S PRIMARY FOR PRESIDENT.
THOSE VOTERS ARE NOT
WARREN-CRATS.
WARREN-CRATS. THEY’RE NOT BERNIE-CRATS.
WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR SOMEONE
LIKE JOE BIDEN.
BUT ALSO, THE RESULT OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI, WE SHOULD TALK
ABOUT THAT TOO BECAUSE THAT WAS
NOT A SPARKLING -- A -- A RESULT
FOR DEMOCRATS.
FOR DEMOCRATS. AFRICAN-AMERICANS THERE DID NOT
TURN OUT AT THE LEVELS THAT JIM
HOOD AND DEMOCRATS WERE HOPING.
I THINK THAT IS A CAVEAT TO LAST
NIGHT’S RESULTS.
NIGHT’S RESULTS. A WARNING SIDE FOR DEMOCRATS IN
LOUISIANA’S RUN OFF.
BUT ALSO, IN FIVE OF THE SIX
STATES THAT ARE GOING TO DECIDE
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN
2020.
2020. THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTE.
NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA,
MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA,
MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN.
WISCONSIN. >> LARRY, PARTICULARLY ON
HEALTHCARE, WHAT -- IT -- IT --
LOOK, IT LOOKS TO ME AS IF THE
DEMOCRATS COULD PLAY THE
OBAMA -- YOU KNOW, KEEP,
PROTECT, EXPAND OBAMA CARE HAND
AND THEY CAN PLAY IN ANY STATE,
ANY DISTRICT, ANY COUNTY IN THE
COUNTRY.
COUNTRY. >> THAT’S EXACTLY RIGHT.
LOOK, MEDICARE FOR ALL PLAYS IN
DEEPLY BLUE STATES AND DISTRICTS
AND THAT’S TERRIFIC.
BUT YOU HAVE TO WIN SOME OF THE
STATES YOU JUST MENTIONED AND
DAVE HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT.
IF YOU CAN’T WIN THOSE, YOU’RE
NOT REQUESTINGGOING TO WIN THE P
AND OBAMA CARE IS, FOR THE FIRST
TIME, TRULY REALLY POPULAR.
IT HAD SOME PERIODS OF
POPULARITY.
POPULARITY. BUT IT’S -- IT’S REALLY UP THERE
NOW.
NOW. WHY NOT CAPITALIZE ON THAT?
>> WHAT ARE WE GOING TO SEE IN
LOUISIANA?
LOUISIANA? MORE OF THE SAME?
DAVID, IT LOOKS LIKE KENTUCKY
AND IT WILL BE A COIN FLIP AT
THE END BECAUSE IT’S BASICALLY
THE SAME CONTEST.
MAYBE YOU DON’T LIKE THE
POLICIES ONE’S PRESENTING BUT
YOU DON’T LIKE THE CULTURAL
CONNECTIONS WITH THE OTHER.
>> WELL, LOOK, JOHN BELL EDWARDS
HAS TO HANG ON TO MORE THAN A
THIRD OF WHITE VOTERS IN
LOUISIANA AND HE’S HOLDING ON
FOR DEAR LIFE RIGHT NOW.
WHAT WE SAW IN INITIAL ROUND OF
VOTING WAS THE WHITE SHARE OF
THE ELECTORATE WAS HIGHER THAN
IN 2015.
IN 2015. PART BECAUSE TRUMP VISITED THE
STATE.
STATE. HE’S GOING TO HAVE TO PUMP UP
THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN TURNOUT.
THAT’S HARD FOR A CONSERVATIVE
WHITE DEMOCRAT TO DO.
BUT WE’LL SEE.
I THINK HE’S DONE PROBABLY JUST
ENOUGH TO LOCALIZE THE RACE, TO
PERSONALIZE IT THAT HE CAN STILL
WIN.
WIN. >> HEY, LARRY, IT IS AMAZING TO
ME DEMOCRATS DID SO WELL IN
VIRGINIA WHEN THEIR TWO
TOP-ELECTED STATEWIDE OFFICIALS,
LET’S JUST SAY, WERE HAM STRUNG
BY SCANDAL.
BY SCANDAL. TO BE -- TO BE -- IN FACT, UP
HERE IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA,
LARRY, YOU COULDN’T TURN ON A
TELEVISION WITHOUT SEEING THE
JUSTIN FAIRFAX CONTROVERSY BEING
USED AND IT DIDN’T WORK.
WHAT MESSAGE DOES THAT SEND?
>> WELL, IT SENT A VERY
PARTICULAR MESSAGE.
PARTICULAR MESSAGE. AND I DONE’T MEAN TO ALWAYS COME
BACK TO TRUMP BUT IT’S ANOTHER
PART OF THE TRUMP EFFECT.
HE CHURNS OUT CONTROVERSIES AND
SCANDALS AT A RATE FASTER THAN
ANY POLITICIAN IN AMERICAN
HISTORY.
HISTORY. SO WE MOVE ON SO QUICKLY FROM
EVENT TO EVENT AND CONTROVERSY
TO CONTROVERSY.
TO CONTROVERSY. THAT WAS FEBRUARY.
THAT WAS LIKE FOUR YEARS AGO,
CHUCK.
CHUCK. >> I WAS THINKING ABOUT YOUR
FIRST GREAT BOOK THAT MANY OF US
READ AS STUDENTS.
"FEEDING FRENZY."
"FEEDING FRENZY." THINKING WHAT THE HELL WOULD
THAT BOOK LOOK LIKE TODAY?
>> IT’D BE TWICE AS LONG.
MAYBE TEN TIMES.
>> IT WOULD BE NEVER-ENDING I