Lately, this drone has been making a lot of noise in the Ukrainian airspace, and in the
news.
Over the past couple of months, Russia has launched various kamikaze drone attacks that’s
got Ukrainians worried, especially on October 10th, 2022, when missile and drone strikes
damaged numerous critical Ukrainian infrastructures nationwide, bringing down around 40% of the
country’s energy facilities.
But … Why is it that these drones are suddenly getting so much international attention?
Well, there are many reasons, like accusations that Iran is supplying them to Russia, or
that they are being used to hit non-military targets, although possibly the biggest reason
is that these drones are so cheap, that air defense systems are struggling to keep up
with them.
But how Ukrainians are planning to destroy kamikaze drones using their cellphones, is
Not What You Think!
In December of 2021, Iranian state media published videos of an unmanned aerial vehicle, Shahed-136,
a delta-wing shaped aircraft, dubbed Kamikaze or suicide drone.
Shahed-136 is a type of loitering munition, a crossover between a cruise missile and a
drone.
It differs from a cruise missile, in that it can loiter for a relatively long period
of time around its target area, kinda like a drone.
But it is different from a drone, in that it is one-time use, because loitering munitions
have warheads, similar to a cruise missile, and they are designed to be destroyed upon
hitting their target, hence the nickname Kamikaze drone.
But loitering munitions are nothing new.
The US had sent hundreds of Switchblade 300 drones as part of an arms package to Ukraine.
The thing is, Iran came up with a new launcher for Shahed-136.
The launcher looks like a regular truck, but not only does it hide the drones during transportation,
it can launch dozens of them in a swarm attack.
Shahed-136 drones also have a range of 1,100 to 1,500 miles, compared
to just over 6 miles for Switchblade 300.
Finally, Shahed-136 drones carry a 90lb warhead, which can inflict serious damage.
It is believed that the September 2019 attack on Saudi oil processing facilities used similar
loitering munitions, based on what was recovered from the attack site and showcased by the
Saudi government.
But what does any of this have to do with Ukraine?
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On July 11th, 2022, US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan said this during a news conference:
“... that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred
UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an …”
Declassified intelligence was later published, showing an aerial image that was supposedly
taken on June 8th, claiming it related to a visit of Russian officials at an Iranian
air base near the city of Kashan.
Over the months of July and August, US officials kept warning about the sales of Iranian UAVs
to Russia, something that both Iran and Russia categorically denied.
But then, on September 13th, about 2 months after Sullivan’s news conference, Russia
destroyed a number of Ukrainian artillery during the Kharkiv counter-offensive using
delta-wing kamikaze drones.
The drone pieces recovered from those attacks resembled the Iranian Shahed-136 drones, except
for they were inscribed in Russian: Герань-2.
Geran-2 closely resembles Shahed-136, and the fact that US intelligence had warned about
this months in advance of their deployment against Ukraine, has many convinced that Iran
is supplying Shahed-136 drones to Russia and simply rebranding them with a Russian name.
On November 5th, Iran’s Foreign Minister acknowledged that Iran had indeed supplied
Russia with a few drones, but that it was months before the Ukraine war had even begun.
That said, the UK, France and Germany are pushing the UN to investigate Iran on the
matter of drone deliveries to Russia, something that Iran is strongly rejecting.
Some reports suggest that Shahed-136 uses US civilian grade GPS, while Geran-2 uses
the Russian GLONASS for satellite navigation, therefore the drones are Russian.
The evidence seems to be overwhelming, however, that Iran is most likely behind the supply
of drones to Russia.
But regardless of who is supplying these drones, the reality is that these delta-wing UAVs
provide Russia with asymmetrical warfare capabilities that are quite crippling.
First of all, these drones are relatively inexpensive, with a price tag of about $20,000.
This means that for the price of a single $5M Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 drone, you can
get 250 Shahed-136 drones.
That excludes the cost of the ground control unit for TB-2, which is also in millions of
dollars.
These Kamikaze drones are also a challenge for traditional radars to detect, because
their initial flight path is often low, about 100 feet above ground, and they are fairly
small, creating a modest detection signature.
They increase their altitude only before diving into the ground, at which time, radar detection
is too late.
But even if radars could detect them, because they are so cheap to produce, a swarm of them
could overwhelm anti-air defense systems.
You have to consider that anti-air missiles have been traditionally used to destroy aircraft
or other cruise missiles, not cheap drones.
In November of 2022, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said they have received their first NASAMS
defense system, which is meant to help the Ukrainians transition their air defense systems
from what is now a Soviet-type system, to this modern technology.
A NASMAS platoon, which includes 3 launchers for 18 missiles, a radar station and a fire
control panel, costs $23 million dollars, and that’s just the setup.
The variety of missiles that NASMAS can launch aren’t cheap either.
For example, AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles have a unit cost in the range of 3 to 4 hundred
thousands dollars.
IRIS-T infrared homing missiles cost around 400 thousand dollars each, and a single AIM-120
AMRAAM missile costs a whopping $1.2 million dollars.
This makes traditional air defense systems economically non-viable against Kamikaze drone
attacks.
So what do you do now?
The good old bullets!
On October 17th, three Kyiv police officers heard the sounds of a drone overhead and started
shooting at it with their AK-47s, causing the drone to crash.
Even though members of the public praised the officers for their quick reaction, Ukrainian
officials are urging citizens not to try it themselves.
Remember that at the onset of the war, thousands of weapons were handed out to ukrainians to
defend their homeland.
But civilians shooting at a fast moving drone is more likely to injure others than to hit
the drone.
This is why Ukraine is now asking for C-RAM units, which is traditionally used for shooting
down rockets and other artillery fire.
C-RAMs use an M61A1 Gatling gun which can fire 4,500 20mm rounds per minute.
That’s 75 bullets per second!
And even though C-RAMs would be able to shoot down kamikaze drones at much lower cost compared
to anti-air missiles, they have a limitation.
Their effective firing range is just under 1 mile.
This makes C-RAM a good candidate only for defending fixed high-value assets, like power
plants and other key infrastructure.
So anti-air missiles are effective, but too expensive.
Bullets are cheap, but have limited range.
So how do you take out a swarm of fast drones?
I’ll let this guy explain it:
"The only thing that can take out a swarm of fast drones ...
is a bigger swarm of faster drones."
That was Palmer Lucky, the guy who founded Oculus VR, which was acquired by Facebook
in 2014.
Then in 2017, he founded a defense technology company, called Anduril Industries.
One of the things they make is drones that destroy other drones.
It is reported that Ukraine wants to acquire these drone interceptors to help combat the
Kamikaze drones.
But Ukraine has come up with one more thing that could help defend against Kamikaze drone
attacks … and there’s an app for it!
Remember how we said radars have a difficult time detecting these relatively small drones.
Well, they may be small, but they are extremely loud, which means people can hear them, and
can in turn report them using an app called ePPO.
When users see a threat in the sky, they simply select the type of air target on the app,
be it a cruise missile or a kamikaze drone, then point their smartphone in the direction
of the target and press the big red button.
This information is then pooled and used to supplement information from military radars.
This is called crowdsourcing, and is the same concept that the navigation app, Waze, uses
to collect feedback from millions of users who report seeing accidents on the road, or
identify where cops have set up speed traps.
But this Ukrainian app echoes previous systems of public air defense that date back to WWII.
The Royal Observer Corps was a network of volunteer spotters, who worked closely with
the Royal Air Force to identify German aircraft and even missiles that were flying over the
UK during the war.
On October 22nd, the app developer confirmed that they had helped track and shoot down
a Russian missile for the first time.
But the true effectiveness of this app would have to be evaluated over time.
The Kamikaze drones yet again show the power of asymmetric warfare.
Just like how Ukraine was able to use $30,000 N-LAWs to destroy $10 million dollar Russian
tanks, now Russia is sending in swarms of $20,000 kamikaze drones that cost way too
much to shoot down.
But one thing is for sure: historically, wars have accelerated technological developments
in order to solve specific military needs, whether it's a drone, an app, or crowdsourcing
before the internet even existed.
It is just a matter ...
of time.
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