With the midterms approaching
in November, what will happen to the Democrats' majority
in Congress, and what could that mean for immigration reform?
Democrats currently hold a narrow majority in Congress,
which means Republicans only need to flip one seat in the Senate
and five seats in the House to turn the tables.
Unfortunately, the president's party typically loses an average of 23
seats in the midterms.
Not to mention, President Biden currently has an all time low approval rating.
So chances are good Republicans will flip the seats that they need.
In this video, we will take a look at what Democrats can likely expect
in the upcoming midterms and what they could mean
for immigration reform after the elections.
As bonus, we will also discuss
the latest news on the bipartisan immigration negotiations, so stay tuned.
And if this is your first time on my channel, be sure to subscribe
and turn on notifications for regular immigration news updates.
And if you would like to get my help on your case,
please call my office to schedule a case evaluation at 212-248-7907.
So what can we expect in the upcoming midterm elections
in November of this year?
Midterms are widely
seen as a referendum on the president because there tends to be a correlation
between the president's approval and how many seats are lost.
President Biden's approval rating is currently sitting at 41.9%,
which is as low as former President Trump's back in 2018 and about 10% lower
than the average approval rating for the president in a midterm year.
And that is down from his highest rating of 57%
when he first took office back in January of 2021.
Biden's approval sunk after the withdrawal from Afghanistan in August of last year
and has not recovered since,
which is surprising considering he has appointed the first black woman
to the Supreme Court
responded to the crisis in Ukraine, and lifted COVID restrictions.
Still, it is common for a president's job approval to remain unchanged
in a midterm year,
which means Biden's low ratings will likely hold steady through November.
So if history is any guide, Democrats could be looking at significant losses
in the upcoming elections,
effectively handing control of Congress over to Republicans.
The average amount of congressional seats a president's party loses during
the midterms is 23, but that number is even greater
when Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going.
For example, Republicans lost 40 seats in 2018
when Americans had a 21% positive view of Congress,
41% approval of Trump, and 32% overall satisfaction levels.
Two of those metrics are now at an all time low,
with only 18% of Americans satisfied with Congress
and 16% satisfied with the way things are going in the country.
And the only time a president's approval rating was lower than Biden's
currently was President Bush's back in 2006.
There are two factors that could still possibly reduce
Democrat losses in November.
One is the fact that Republicans already hold seats in many of the contested
districts favored for their party, including 12 House seats
they picked up in 2020.
The other is the anticipated decision by the Supreme Court to overturn abortion
rights, which will likely happen in the coming weeks.
According to polls, this will cause 49% of Americans
to be more likely to vote with the majority of those leaning Democratic.
Still, there is a good chance Democrats will lose control of Congress
in the upcoming midterms.
So what role will immigration play in these elections,
and what hope is there for immigration reform
if Republicans retake the majority in the House and Senate?
As most of you know, Republicans frequently use immigration
as a political weapon to win votes, and this year is no different.
The narrative of Biden's border crisis has been running on conservative
media outlets almost since he took office, and the president's recent attempt
to end Title 42, the pandemic related rule
that allows rapid expulsion of migrants at the Mexico
border, has been called a gift to Republicans.
Even some Democrats in vulnerable districts have encouraged the president
to wait until after the midterm elections to overturn the rule,
despite how unpopular it is with Democrat voters.
And although immigration is often secondary in importance
to inflation, gas prices and the general direction of the economy,
Republican messaging around it has stopped any hope of reform
from passing this year.
Members of the bipartisan group of senators who have been discussing
immigration reform since April announced it is unlikely
they will make progress, with Republican member
Thom Tillis saying that the group is not going to have the capacity
to have anything put down before we return from the August recess.
That means Congress probably won't vote on any immigration reform bill until after
the midterms, when Republicans have likely reclaimed a majority of seats.
And while that does not mean immigration reform
will be impossible, it will likely become more difficult.
When asked about passing a bill, Senator Bob Menendez said: "If it doesn't happen
this year, it will depends upon the results of the election.
Do we have more people
who are willing to deal with solving our broken immigration system?
Or do we have more people of the Trump mentality in which nothing can be done?"
What do you think?
Are Democrats going to lose their majority in Congress after the midterms?
If they do, will any chance of immigration reform go with it?
Leave me a comment and let me know.
Fortunately, Congress is not the only part of government that can help immigrants.
USCIS has been making a lot of internal changes
to reduce the green card backlog and speed up case processing times.
I recently
did a video explaining everything they've done
and I'll include a link to that video here.
I will also continue bringing you additional immigration news
as it's available, so be sure to subscribe and turn on the notifications
if you haven't done so yet.
Click here to watch this video next and I'll see you there.