In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the
form of incoming players.
We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture, we don’t have inside information, and we’re
not considering the brand value of players.
Purely, their on-field performance, and their suitability for the team in question.
Today’s team is Everton.
Welcome to sensible transfers.
Marco Silva has now been at Everton over a year and the side have shown progress transitioning
from Sam Allardyce’s more functional tactics, to Silva’s quicker, more attractive style
of football.
High pressing, wide overloads, and quick transitions between attacking players seem to be the favoured
approach, with Silva preferring a 4-2-3-1 in which the full backs generally push up
to support inside forwards.
Gylfi Sigurdsson plays off the central striker as a second striker with creative responsibility
and this is likely to remain the case though, if Everton want to play more of a midfield
three and increase their pressing, Tom Davies could be deployed as a 10 ahead of a more
combative double pivot, as happened in the pre-season friendly against Sion.
Everton have appointed Marcel Brands as Director of Football, an astute appointment that should
go some way to restore confidence in what had been a haphazard approach that yielded
good signings like Idrissa Gueye, Jordan Pickford, and Michael Keane, alongside less astute buys
like Sandro Ramirez, Davy Klaassen, Cenk Tosun, and Nikola Vlašić– not necessarily bad
players, but players who haven’t settled or fitted in at the club.
Having said that, Andre Gomes’ purchase has raised some eyebrows due to the fee, and
while Digne, Richarlison, and Bernard have been successful, Everton still need work in
certain areas.
We’ve looked for players under 27 who have racked up more than 800 minutes, so that there’s
a reasonable data set and each player is either entering their peak or is still a prospect.
This is surely Everton’s key area for strengthening.
Vlašić has departed for an undisclosed fee, Tosun is still something of a mystery, and
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has great potential and is excellent in the air, but so far has
failed to show that his undoubted skill set can translate into a good minutes per goal
rate.
Everton need want a striker who can score, hold the ball well, link with Sigurdsson and
the wide attackers, provide a threat in the air, and is smart enough to play in a quick,
fluid attacking trident.
Everton have reportedly already bid somewhere in the region of £20-25m for Jean-Philippe
Mateta, the highly rated 22 year old French forward at Mainz.
Mateta scored 14 non penalty goals from an xG of 12.3 last season – he’s quick, physically
strong, good in air, and is destined for a level above Mainz.
His managed 3.1 shots per 90 with a decent 38% accuracy last season, as well as 3.9 touches
in the box and 3.8 dribbles per 90 at a success rate of 46%.
There’s a lot to like about a player with a high ceiling who has passed through Mainz’s
excellent scouting filter, although his link-up play needs work as he can look a little clumsy.
If Everton were to follow up this interest, though, they would be bagging a good player
who could become very good with the right coaching.
Our choice, though, is Basel’s 22 year old Swiss striker Albian Ajeti.
Strong, brave, and energetic, he scored 14 league goals last season from an xG of 16.04,
the highest of Swiss Super League players that fit our search parameters.
He took 3.5 shots per 90 with 40% accuracy, and also took 6.15 touches in the box per
90 – he’s involved more in the box than in build-up, but that is as much Basel’s
style as any limitations Ajeti might possess.
When playing with his back to goal, his strength allows him to hold off larger players and
he always looks to peel off and run behind having played the pass.
In short, while his primary value is as a goal-scorer, in a system that uses quick,
short passes to link play he will adapt.
He’s valued at 7 million Euro and would likely be less expensive than Mateta.
Full backs are intrinsic to Marco Silva’s system, facilitating wide build-up when the
inside forwards cut inside, supplying crosses and allowing the creation of 2 v 1s high up
the pitch.
Lucas Digne, who always looked promising while at PSG, has had a superb season, supplying
four goals and four assists in the Premier League.
Seamus Coleman, with two goals and two assists last season is hugely reliable, but 30 and
has had injury issues in previous seasons, although his longest spell out was for a fractured
leg, which doesn’t indicate chronic issues.
Nonetheless, with Jonjoe Kenny being allowed to go on loan to Schalke, Everton could do
with a promising right back who can challenge Mason Holgate if he doesn’t join West Bromwich
Albion on loan, and provide back-up to Coleman.
Genk’s 22 year old Danish right back Joakim Maehle looks a genuine prospect.
He contributed three goals and four assists last season and is a very attacking full back
with a good crossing ability.
He managed 2.26 deep completed passes or crosses per 90 last season, as well as 9.1 progressive
passes; running with the ball, he made 2.5 progressive runs and 3.8 dribbles per 90,
with a success rate of 52%.
Maehle is a proactive defender who looks to push out and intercept, and relishes joining
the attack, over-lapping regularly.
Again, as with many modern full backs, his defensive game needs some work, though he
wins 60% of his defensive duels, but he has the athleticism and attacking instinct to
be a genuine threat.
If Everton want a longer term solution who could even be an upgrade on Coleman this season,
though, they should look at our choice, Bayer Leverkusen’s 25 year old Mitchell Weiser.
Weiser is defensively good, winning 63% of his 8.4 defensive duels per 90.
He makes 7.4 interceptions per 90 when weighted for the opposition’s time in possession,
though for a 5ft10 player, his aerial defence needs some work.
He’s a dynamic attacker, making 4.3 crosses per 90, 4.1 dribbles per 90 with a 51% success
rate, and 1.5 progressive runs per 90.
He also makes 2.48 deep completed crosses or passes per 90, and 10.9 progressive passes.
In short, he moves the ball forwards well and intelligently, while not shirking his
defensive duties.
Weiser is the sort of player who will link well with wide attackers, get forwards and
play neat, quick passes, and provide crosses into dangerous areas.
In short, the sort of full back who would work well in Everton’s system.
Idrissa Gueye has been the most unqualified success of Everton’s recent business, underpinning
the team’s pressing style and putting up defensive numbers that are really only rivalled
by N’Golo Kanté in the league.
However, such success has attracted significant attention, not least from Paris Saint-Germain,
and even if Gueye doesn’t depart this window, Everton must prepare for his exit.
The signing of Fabian Delph, a solid utility midfielder who can also supply cover at left
back, is perfectly sensible, but Brands and Everton will be looking for someone who can
fill the dynamic Senegalese midfielder’s shoes in the next year.
KV Kortrijk’s Hannes van der Bruggen could be a fairly inexpensive option, currently
valued at around 1.5 million Euro.
He won 54% of his 8 defensive duels per 90 last season, making 7.2 interceptions and
11.7 recoveries per 90.
He’s an unfussy player, making 49 passes per 90 at 85% accuracy, spreading the play
well and generally looking to keep the ball moving than try anything too expansive.
Our only question mark would be whether it’s too much of a step up from Belgium’s top
tier, but because of the type of player he is, we think van der Bruggen could do a good
job.
Angers’ 24 year old French midfielder Baptiste Santamaria is our choice, though, and even
if Everton don’t secure him, he would be a fine addition to the defensive midfield
capabilities of a sub-top six team.
Last season he made 5.6 interceptions and 10.5 recoveries, 1.5 clearances, and won 60%
of his 9.1 defensive duels per 90.
He’s 6ft and robust and keeps possession ticking over well without being flashy, passing
40 times per 90 at 85%.
Angers are a smart recruiting side, picking the best talent from Ligue 2 and the lower
tiers of French football; Santamaria was picked up from Tours and is now worth around 6 million
Euro.
While his passing and first touch need a little work, in every other respect he is exactly
the sort of intelligent, combative player who could thrive in the Premier League and
add solidity to Everton’s midfield.
Everton probably don’t just need players.
Although the appointment of Marcel Brands should herald a new, smarter era of recruitment,
there are still concerns among the high number of Everton fans who also seem to work in football
data about the coaching staff and, in some instances, Marco Silva as well.
The Zouma situation is fluid – he apparently wants to leave Chelsea and should be a consideration
for Everton, finances permitting.
There are also suggestions Ademola Lookman may leave – this could leave the right wing
options a little thin.
But here is what our team would look like:
Players who fit the sort of system that Silva will use, addressing areas of weakness and
building for the future – these
are sensible transfers.