The biggest threat to the liberal international order
that was established after world war two is, in one man,
Donald Trump.
He has made it, frankly, his singular foreign policy
aim to dismantle that global order
and he just doesn't like globalisation.
He doesn't like global institutions.
He does like internationalism.
But there's another issue in the man in that he is, as we all
know, a deal-maker, and he likes to deal bilaterally
with individual world leaders and has this strand
of authoritarianism in him.
He likes to deal with the strongmen -
Kim Jong Un; Erdogan in Turkey; Putin, obviously, in Russia.
These are men who can get things done like he thinks he can.
So he likes to deal with people who are traditionally
American foes in the international arena,
all of whom have been trying to undermine many
of these same institutions that have upheld
the liberal order for decades.
2020 will see few major changes here
in Russia, as the regime of President Vladimir Putin
enters his 21st year looking solid,
if not without challenges.
Economic growth will remain depressed by western sanctions
and tight government spending as Russian households continue
to feel the pinch.
That could result in more protests,
especially in major cities like Moscow.
However, where there will be major changes
is inside President Putin's ruling United Russia
party, which has been losing voters and candidates
in recent years.
With critical parliamentary elections in 2021,
the Kremlin knows it needs to overhaul that brand or face
trouble at the ballot box.
The year 2020 is meant to be a bright new dawn for Europe,
but the new European Commission under Ursula von
der Leyen charts a new direction for the EU.
But in reality, the weather is going to be a bit more like
this: grey, uncertain, a bit depressing because, actually,
Europe faces a year of drift and lack of leadership.
The EU actually is just as eager as Boris Johnson
to get Brexit done, but that's going
to be really tough because they're going to move straight
into very difficult trade negotiations under a very
tight deadline.
And the reality is that Brexit is
going to suck up a whole lot of energy,
both political and emotional.
In 2019, the Chinese economy grew at its slowest pace
in three decades.
Investment is growing much slower than before.
Inflation is now edging up, thanks
to the decimation of China's hog population
caused by African swine fever.
And thirdly, we've seen a record number
of defaults on China's enormous pile of debt
that is building up throughout the entire economy.
Now, in 2020, none of these factors are going away,
and the slowdown in the Chinese economy
is expected to continue.
Behind me is the epicentre of the Hong Kong protests that
have rocked this international financial centre for the last
eight months.
Those protests have been the biggest open rebellion
on Chinese soil in three decades.
The Communist party in Beijing is
showing no signs of backing down in the face of these protests.
The protesters are also showing no signs of backing down,
and as a result, in 2020, the crisis
is almost certain to continue and maybe even
worsen throughout the year.
Thanks to the US election, Moscow
knows that the anti-Russian rhetoric in Washington
is not going to end soon.
That means nobody here expects any let-up in sanctions in 2020
and even the possibility of new restrictions
against Russian businessmen, companies, and finance.
That will mean Moscow will continue
to shift trade payments and national wealth holdings out
of the dollar and also continue its pivot towards Asia,
the Middle East, and Africa in search of new partners
to replace the west.
The lack of high-level co-operation
between Moscow and Washington could also
imperil global arms agreements such as New START.
That, which, caps the number of nuclear warheads
held by both countries, will expire in early 2021
unless negotiations start soon.
The main reason to expect 2020 to be
a year of political disappointment in Europe
lies in the big national capitals.
In Berlin, the Merkel era is clearly coming to a close,
and the main political parties are now
preoccupied by internal struggles over ideology
and over leadership, and that's going
to make it very hard for Berlin to provide leadership
for the rest of Europe.
Meanwhile, in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron
has been struggling for a couple of years
to provide the European Union with new impetus
and new direction.
But he's in trouble too because the other European leaders
have not been as responsive as Mr Macron would like.
The Germans and others disagree with him
on issues such as the future of Nato and on Russia.
And also his prestige internationally
is suffering a little bit because he's
struggling at home to get reforms
through and in the face of big demonstrations
on the streets of Paris and elsewhere.
2020 could also be the year that Russia's most risky
overseas venture turns sour.
Moscow entered the Syrian Civil War
in 2015 and despite many claims of mission accomplished,
has found itself bogged down in the conflict.
Putin is engaged in a delicate diplomatic dance between
opposing neighbours - Iran, Turkey, Israel,
and the Syrian government itself.
2020 could be the year that the music stops,
and the Kremlin's recent run of luck in the Middle East
comes to an end.
That would likely force Moscow to make
a choice it has delayed for years, between President
Assad and peace.
Italy and Spain are also looking at a year
of highly unstable politics.
The Spanish government is struggling
with the secessionist movement in Catalonia,
and Spain has had four elections in four years that have failed
to yield a stable government.
Political uncertainty is nothing new for Italy,
but 2020 could see another government fall and the return
to government of Matteo Salvini, a populist nationalist
with very eurosceptic views that have not typically
been the ones that Italy have represented in Europe.
So put all of those national political situations together,
and you have a recipe for another year of drift
and political stasis in Europe in 2020.
The US and China have declared a truce in their trade war
that roiled the global economy in 2019.
Even what's been announced so far
could still fall apart in 2020, and getting
to a phase two or phase three of a much broader agreement
is going to be incredibly difficult.
If Donald Trump is re-elected, I think
it's fair to say that that liberal order is
under real threat.
The establishment in Washington has been slowly weakening,
but able to fend off many of its attacks
on traditional alliances, the traditional institutions.
This is the deep state he keeps railing about.
Another four years of that, I think it raises questions
whether any of these institutions
will survive, from Nato, the WTO, IMF, World Bank.
If there is not American financing
for these things, if there is not
American diplomatic support, remember, a lot of these things
are about American leadership.
They're about America as an example,
and many of the countries that go along
with this global liberal order do so because they see the US
as a provider of public good.
And certainly, a Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren,
would want to see changes to the way that it operates.
But in terms of completely dismantling,
what we come to known as the post-war order,
I think a Democrat winning the election in November 2020,
will see a shift back to what has
been for 80 years American foreign policy internationally.