Welcome to the Climate and Water Outlook for February–April 2017.
Warmer- and drier-than-normal conditions are likely to continue over much of eastern Australia,
while wetter-than-average conditions are likely for northern Australia—particularly in February.
First, let's look at what summer has brought us so far.
Ex-tropical cyclone Yvette crossed the coast on Christmas Day, and then combined with other
tropical lows to bring flooding rains to northern, central, and parts of southern Australia.
There were waterfalls on Uluru, and nearby Kintore had 287 mm of rain in two days.
With tropical moisture being drawn south over the continent, South Australia had its wettest
December on record.
Humidity reached record-high levels in central and southeastern Australia.
On 29 and 30 December, humidity in parts of Victoria reached the same level as Darwin.
This was associated with thunderstorms, heavy rain and flash flooding.
Heavy rains continued into January for inland northern Australia and central Western Australia.
A frontal system in the middle of January also brought heavy rains to South Australia.
However, temperatures in January were unusually high for this time of year in many areas.
Nights were especially warm, allowing little respite from the daytime heat and creating
heatwave conditions across much of the country.
Warm conditions have led to soils drying, particularly in the southeast and far southwest.
And while water storages in the eastern States have fallen over the past month, they are
far healthier than at this time last year.
Our key climate drivers are taking a break at the moment: In the tropical Pacific,
there is little sign of either El Niño or La Niña developing in the coming months,
so our ENSO Outlook is at 'Inactive'.
But warm waters in the western Pacific are feeding moisture into the monsoon trough.
Our models indicate the monsoon is likely to be particularly active at the beginning
of February—increasing the chance of heavy rainfall for northern Australia.
This can be seen in our rainfall outlook: February is likely to be wetter than normal
in Western Australia and the Top End, with an increased risk of tropical cyclone development.
The three-month outlook for February–April indicates below-average rainfall is likely
over much of eastern Australia, with above-average rainfall in northern parts.
Outlook accuracy is moderate at this time of year.
Turning to the streamflow forecast for January–March 2017.
Near-median streamflows are most likely at 65 locations.
Low flows are likely at 27 locations, and high flows at another 27.
Accuracy for our streamflow forecasts is moderate to high at this time of year, with highest
accuracy in the south.
With further monsoon rainfall expected, Northern Australia is likely to experience ongoing
flooding—particularly in those parts that have already had heavy rain.
In terms of temperatures: Days and nights are likely to be cooler than average across
much of the north, but warmer than average over a large part of eastern Australia, with
the potential for further heatwaves.
The combination of hot and dry conditions in the southeast means bushfire risk is still raised.
Accuracy for this outlook is moderate at this time of year.
So in summary: Rainfall is likely to be below average for large parts of eastern Australia,
and above average in the tropics; near-median streamflows are likely in most places;
temperatures are expected to be warmer than average over much of the east; and heatwave and bushfire
risk is raised in many regions.
For more details, go to our website at bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.
You can also get updates via Facebook and Twitter.
Our next video will be released on Thursday 23 February.
For the Bureau of Meteorology, I’m Paul Feikema.