hi Alex here you probably know this famous quote by Albert Einstein
we cannot solve our problems with the thinking we used when we created them
so what does this mean for solving our sustainability problems
Why is it so hard to plan strategically towards sustainability
together as a society well
research shows that in large groups of people the most common planning
methodology
is forecasting using trends from the past
projecting them in the future and fixing problems to improve it
this is OK when we are on the right trajectory
but it's like driving using only your rearview mirror
hoping that the road ahead is going to be the exact logical continuation
of the last few kilometers it sounds dangerous
and yet this is what we're doing and it may also mean
that we are not asking an important question what
if we need to change direction? what if we want
or need a very different future from where we're heading?
here is an example of what forecasting applied to decision-making
looks like in our society today let's say that we are about seven billion people
on Earth today
trends suggest that we will be around nine billion
in 2050 everybody needs to drive to work
and travel for business and holiday therefore we need to build many more
cars
roads planes airports et cetera it doesn't seem to leave a lot of room for creativity
or something different
right so don't get me wrong forecasting is not
always bad it's actually a very good way to build upon successes
to understand problems adapt and become more resilient
the funnel metaphor that we used in a previous video
is a great example of useful forecasting but it's not enough
to plan and a very complex system like
our world when the actual trends are part of the problem
by definition forecasting will reproduce in the future
problems that we already have today in this article
why sustainability is now the key driver of innovation
the Harvard Business Review suggests don't start from the present
if the starting point is the current approach to business
the view of the future is likely to be an optimistic extrapolation it's better
to start from the future so as Einstein suggested in his quote
we need a different way of thinking we need backcasting from success
planning from the future individually we all use backcasting
all the time think about the last time you planned your holiday
did you look only a trends of where everybody else was going?
of course not what if the trendiest destinations
were white sand beaches in the pacific
and you like hiking in the mountains you probably had a vision
of what success looked like for your holiday and you planned
step by step toward it in order to find the best destination
given your own constraints like budget, dates, hiking skills, etc.
the game of chess is a complex system where players use backcasting
both players share a very clear vision of success in principles
called checkmate they don't know in detail what the board is going to look like at
the end of the game
but they do know that one of the two kings will not be able to escape from
capture
knowing this they make all their decisions
in order to achieve checkmate adjusting their strategy turn after turn
depending on that you look of the board
to plan successfully and strategically toward
a truly sustainable future we need to use backcasting from sustainability principles
this can help us agree even in large groups
on what the principles of success are for sustainability
we don't need to waste time and resources
on short-term ad hoc decisions that do not get us closer to sustainability
checkmate
we don't need to argue on the details
of what a sustainable society (the chessboard) looks like
in the end we don't need to reproduce
in the future problems that we have today instead
we can adjust our strategy step-by-step
as new technologies and inventions appear in order to achieve success
so if we agree
that backcasting from sustainability principles sounds like a good way forward
what is checkmate for sustainability
what are the sustainability principles
that we need to backcast from? Well we'll find out in the next video
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